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BOJ stands pat on policy; says economy picking up

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Soros selling Yen and buying Japanese stocks! Usd.yen is going to probably form a penant and break up in a few weeks.

Selling yen in the 90 level is very good bet right now.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

Seems like the "trade of the year" already breaking up as Abe and co. once again fail to follow through with their promises.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

For every trend, there is a correction. So the phase that we are in is mostly likely a correction phase. But mostly the yen is now dependent on the U.S QE and remmergence of EU crisis. The dollar was sold due to phasing down of QE and if Euro crisis reammerge , yen will be bought and be strong again. Nobody can predict the future but I am hoping that by the upper house election the yen trend moves up to about 115 yen.

-6 ( +0 / -6 )

Nobody can predict the future but I am hoping that by the upper house election the yen trend moves up to about 115 yen.

And as a consumer living here in Japan I sincerely hope it NEVER reaches that rate or anywhere even close to it again.

The higher the yen rate, the higher the trade imbalance will get due to unbelievable high costs associated with importing fuel to fuel the economy. Exports will not even touch a tip of the iceberg in covering those costs.

EVERYTHING from the top of the food production cycle down will cost more, and guess who ends up paying for it?

Us the consumer. That will also stagnate even further the money people will use to purchase goods and services because of added costs.

While a rise was inevitable, holding at 1:1 seems best for now!

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T_rexmaxytimeJun. 11, 2013 - 02:09PM JST

mostly the yen is now dependent on the U.S QE.

Exactly.

And when the Fed cuts QE, probably around October/November at the latest, watch the Yen's rise with the big fall in world markets. It will be a repeat of 2008.

It's a really really sad statement of Japanese politics that we are exactly at the same place we were in 2007, except the sovereign debt has nearly doubled. In 2006 - 2007, we had an LDP government, we had Abe talking about an idiotic idea of a Beautiful Japan (today it's Abenomics), we had an economy dependent on a cheap Yen to fuel exports and a domestic economy dependent on public spending.

Frightening.

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

If it scares you that much Dog then pull the pin and go back to another ailing economy (Country of Origin) with debt issues.

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StormRJun. 11, 2013 - 03:51PM JST

If it scares you that much Dog then pull the pin and go back to another ailing economy (Country of Origin) with debt issues.

It's not frightening for me. Among other things, I've just made Y17,000,000 profit on moving money out of Japan (2009) and back into Japan (last week). Admittedly it's in Yen now!

It's frightening for the poor sods who have no choice but to live here and those who think they'll stay here.

Anyway I'm out next year, but I'll stick around for the one and last Yen strengthening of my lifetime (I'm in my 50's) before I go.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Weak yen does not make sense for recovering the economy. Why? Imports are more key to spending in Japan than exports. Likewise food, energy and other items are on part with or in some cases exceed exports. While support for the big exporters no longer makes sense as most are migrating jobs out of the country anyway.

Abenomics is a fad no different than any other fad in Japan, extremely popular and well selling today but out of fashion and failed tomorrow. There are no structural fundamental changes in this policy. The economy knows it and once the fad fades it is game over for this policy.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

tkoind2: when they judge how the economy is impoving, they look at how much of a good they sold and for what price.. if corporate revenues are "up" then the economy is improving, esp in the case of the big exporters (toyota, Honda, Nissan, Sony). In this case, they are "up" because the value of the yen relative to the USD has dropped by about 20% in 6 months.

BUT, what it doesn't take into consideration is the fact that everyday essentials are now more expensive in Japan.. basically emptying people's discretionary income. The economy can be "booming" but if salaries aren't increasing and the price of a loaf of bread is now 1000 yen... how is that progress? Salaries are a huge expense for corporations and if they can keep them flat, they will

Abe is creating a country of working poor with aristocrats on the top... not so different from the USA it seems

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Japan is still basically an export based economy. Domestic consumption and employment are also indirectly linked to the performance of exporters. Many importers and domestic firms are actually quite dependent on exporters for businesses. With BOJ determined to double the money supply in 2 years; Yen will be the weakest major currency. Dollar/Yen will move back above 100 soon, and probably test 105 before the end of 2013. Nikkei after this current sharp correction should rebound and trend upward, making new highs in the process. Japanese exporters are going to see record profits in next 2 years.

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I've just made Y17,000,000 profit on moving money out of Japan (2009) and back into Japan

Wow. If I made that much money my hobby wouldn't be posting comments on JT everyday!

3 ( +3 / -0 )

I'm sure he cannot count and has typed too many 0s, but then it is only over a 5 year period and its probably a fund he managed.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

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