8 Comments

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  OssanII at 08:27 AM JST - 7th April

  I'm actually surprised that China still is that far away fron surpassing Japan as the second largest economy in the world. The way most C-supporting posters picture it China was already ruler of the planet. Anyway, this forecast is optimistic. The US is already in a recession. Watch what happens to China's export driven economy over the next 3-5 years. The growth is going to nowhere near 17% short of outright lying. This isn't the end of Chinese economic growth, just merely a slowdown, as is common to all economies. One that will require a reassesment of projections.

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  VoXman at 12:13 PM JST - 7th April

  An undervalued currency and a slowing American economy spells a slowing in China's growth. Unrest over the massive gap between the rich and poor there will predict a future political upheaval.

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  Dog at 03:22 PM JST - 7th April

  China just made a FTA with New Zealand this morning. Next on the way is Australia followed by the rest of Asia(excluding japan) in the next 5 years and India within the next 10 years. Above posters are way of the mark because China will compensate for a rising currency and decouple itself from the US market with future tarrif free markets elsewhere. Japan has yet to create one 'proper' FTA - FTA is defined as 93% of products are free of tarrifs and while Japan has sort of FTA's, the 7% excluded from tarrif free trade are always agricultural products in Japans case. The future world economy will be a number of main economic blocs (EEC, NAFTA and a China led Asia bloc) and minor economic blocs (Africa, former USSR countries Middle East). Japan will be out in the cold, basking in its gloriously reinvented 'Tokogawa' isolation. The Chinese elites are perceptive and driven on their future economic designs (an manufacturing export dependent economy is not in their plans) and there really is nothing stopping them being number 2 in the next couple of years and number 1, in terms of national GDP, within the next 15 years.

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  Triring at 05:05 PM JST - 7th April

  IT may happen but I reserve doubts observing the recent stocks movements at Shanghai. As for bloc economy that's what triggered the second world war so anybody who had do any studying of history will veer themselves away from that kind of notion. PRC's economy and/or any other industrialized economy for that matter is basically an export economy(with the exception of the US). If mainland China doesn't have anything to offer then it will sink for other nations to take it's place.

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  OssanII at 09:19 PM JST - 7th April

  The idea that China could lead an Asian economic bloc is predicated on a continued linear growth of it's economy over the last few years. That simply isn't going to happen in light of the current global economic scenario. Wishful thinking and Nationalist fervor not withstanding, China does not have the kind of domestic economy to carry on growth when the US, EU and Japan are in recession. And when that happens not only will China's ecomic growth be put on hold, but so will her poltical influence in Asia. That economic prosperity comes and goes is a known fact to the developed countries. Looks like China is about to learn this.

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  gmygmygmy at 02:41 AM JST - 8th April

  The US is already in a recession. Watch what happens to China's export driven economy over the next 3-5 years.

  Anyone knows the Walmart effect? At hard times, people are more inclined to buy cheap goods, and China has more to offer than any other countries. and hopefully, the recession in the US is a shallow one. The economy in the US may recover in the second half of this year, or the next year.

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  romulus3 at 02:06 PM JST - 8th April

  17%? maybe 8 or 9 this year at the most. It should take another few years for China to pass Japan. Thats if the bubble does not pop.

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  Zolt at 03:36 PM JST - 9th April

  17% seems impossible to sustain for several year. Currency readjustments could tip the scales, but I don't think the yen will drop vs the dollar. Actually, Japan being one of china's main trade partners, I think both countries will make efforts to keep their currencies at roughly the same levels respective of each other.

  A continued rise of the yuan would hurt chinese exports badly, whereas the japanese economy can maintain itself either way. A low yen would boost their exports, but a higher yen would give a boost to domestic consumption.

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