Thursday May 24, 2012

Japan considering alternative oil supplies as Iran sanctions loom

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  • -1

    NetNinja

    We are about to feel it. Lucky for me I just sold my car. Ordered one of those cute Toyota Aqua's. That's the only way we are going to get through this oil sanction.

  • 0

    paulinusa

    Saudi Arabia, no friend of Iran, will accommodate Japan's energy needs.

  • 0

    LH10

    please japan don't get involved with iran. ww3 will start over oil -_-

  • -1

    NetNinja

    @LH10 You missed something. Japan is already involved with Iran. Japan has no wish to place sanctions on Iran. It will be the U.S and select allies if any that place sanctions.

    If Japan does not play along well.......your gas tanks will be an empty for sure. We are talking embargo here. American Navy and patrols not allowing a single oil tanker to leave the Gulf.

    Iran is already deploying it's Navy and subs to thwart this in advance. We haven't seen a naval battle in years but we may quite soon.

    If American subs are out there, I believe they are already, then the show has already started.

  • 1

    sunhawk

    the entire US Navy 5th Fleet lays anchor in Bahrain. Between them and all the other US and NATO naval/air forces in the region any action by iran would lead to Iran having its navy sunk.

  • 0

    borscht

    Does anyone know how much oil Japan imports from Mexico, Venezuela, and Indonesia? I thought after the oil embargoes in the 70s that Japan diversified their oil portfolio.

  • 2

    Laguna

    How 'bout whale oil?

    Seriously, NetNinja, you're really jumping the shark with your claims. There will be no "embargo," and no nation which relies on Iranian oil will be deprived: that's why the sanctions on petroleum-related trading don't phase in for three years - and even then, the President has authority to waive them selectively.

    I am in no way downplaying the significance of this move; it is huge. It is also much better than war.

  • 0

    peanut666

    Japan can buy whale from the Icelanders and Norwegians. Combined they hunt more whales per year than Japan. Japan should buy oil from Iran and Venezuela.

  • 3

    zichi

    Another nuke reactor was closed down only leaving four currently in operation but oil is only a small part, about 10% of power generation. The uptake of the shut down reactors is being generated by an increase in gas powered generation and some increase in coal fired.

    Japan has made an new agreement with Russia to receive more LNG.

    The oil imports is mostly for vehicles, cars and trucks, and industrial use. More hybrids and electric vehicles are needed.

  • 1

    kwatt

    It seems that the US wants to start the new war as Iraq and Afghanistan are just over.

  • 1

    Laguna

    I really don't think so, kwatt. Obama is no Bush: he's not so rash as to start a war in a region where war has never produced a victor. In fact, my guess is that it's the opposite: that Israel is pushing the US to act economically or it will act militarily. That helps to explain the timing.

  • 0

    Rogerrabbitt

    Petrol prices about to go up!

  • 3

    kwatt

    I'm very sure that the US will make the new war. The US have never stopped wars in the past. It will keep fighting ever whatever reasons. It will make plausible reasons.

  • 1

    Soraya Sepahpour-Ulrich

    How can any Japanese not compare the current scenario with Iran with that of its own? In The US froze Japanese assets in the U.S., embargoed vital oil and steel exports, and the final provocation and ultimatum which America wanted and knew would lead to war -- a war that took the lives of hundreds of thousands of innocent lives when America ruthlessly used the nuclear bombs. Not content with nuking Japanese, they wanted to castrate them and strip them of all power. In 1948, Kennan wrote: "U.S. control over Japanese oil imports would help provide 'veto power' over Japan's military and industrial policies". Clearly, American has the veto power.
    Why does Japan insist on 'soft power' and use of diplomacy when it is too enslaved to be soverign? What are you teaching the future generations -- that they must forever remain be a nation on its knees not daring to stand up?!

  • -2

    j4p4nFTW

    It will make plausible reasons.

    There already is a plausible reason. Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons and the rest of the world is at risk.

  • 0

    Sid Badakhsh

    All countries and especially Japan should know that hostilities between Iran and the U.S. will not be limited to the Strait of Hormuz. In an area where 40 percent of world energy is transported, any conflict can quickly become a much larger conflict affecting the entire world economy. I certainly hope that the American administration will not do another miscalculation as they did in their invasion of Iraq. Iran is a much larger and much more powerful country that Saddam's Iraq ever was. Iran with over 75 million determined people have had their independence for the past 32 years and are not about to give it up that quickly.

  • 0

    sasakama

    Japan has always back up solutions for natural resources like oil, coal..etc since we're poor country in terms of natural resources. Good learning from the quake on Mar 11' 11. At that time, the industries faced a lack of materials coming from Japan which lead to short supply for a while. After the quake, several industries have been seeking for alternatives to be on safe side. why not the government take such actions?

  • 0

    Farmboy

    I certainly hope that the American administration will not do another miscalculation...

    Yes, well, IF we buy the idea that Iran has nukes, I suppose the idea is that it's better to push things now than to wait until they have more of them. I feel fairly confident that, if pushed, Iran will push back. I hope this doesn't get messy. It's a pretty worrisome situation that seems to be developing.

    From Japan's point of view, though, it would be a good idea to buy as much oil as they can right now and store it. Oil is, as I understand it, denominated in dollars, and buying a lot at a time the yen is high and the dollar is low makes good sense.

  • 2

    BrigitteD

    Unfortunately, once again the US is marching down the path of an Iraq redux. In order to accomplish this task successfully the US needs to arm-twist, and drag the international community to go along with its plans of destroying Iran’s economy by imposing aggressive economic sanctions on Iran’s central bank and prevent Iran from selling its oil. These drastic measures help prepare the way for war, a war which will be far more catastrophic than what we witnessed in Iraq. However, the international community must surely realize that Iran is not Iraq. Iran is a country far larger than Iraq, with a population of over 75 million, a strong and disciplined military and a people who will fight for their country’s sovereign rights and independence with all of their might.

    Stepped up interventi¬on against Iran—no matter how the U.S., attempt to justify it—is criminal aggression in service of imperialis¬t domination of hundreds of millions of people—dom¬ination which many millions are rising up against in different ways. I only hope that the proud people of Japan – loudly, clearly, and actively say – NO! No to sanctions and No to War!

  • 1

    Patrick Hattman

    @BrigitteD:

    I only hope that the proud people of Japan – loudly, clearly, and actively say – NO! No to sanctions and No to War!

    Japan has "virtually no fossil fuels" as this article points out. Attempts to locate more through its EEZ(often disputed by neighbors) and the legitimacy of its EEZ expansion in the area of the Okinotori Rocks is questioned, to say the least. Japan's inability to resolve territorial disputes with China, Taiwan, Korea and Russia further limits its opportunities to explore for oil and gas.

    In the aftermath of the 3/11 disasters, one nuclear reactor after the other has been shut down, requiring even more imports of oil. Alternatives, such as they may be, are far, far away from providing what Japan needs to dispense with nuclear power.

    Japan operates under a U.S. written and imposed constitution to this day.

    Japan still has tens of thousands of U.S. military stationed in the country.

    Most of the Japanese people have become so accustomed to living under these semi-occupation conditions, if they've ever known differently with the long passage of time, that living in "dreamy peace" is for the best, and it is the cheapest and easiest way for the central government, no matter how much is dumped on the Okinawans.

    Japan still needs the U.S. market for its exports, although not to the extent it once did with Asia's other growing economies.

    So exactly how and why do you expect the Japanese in any noticeable numbers to oppose the impending war with Iran?

    And do you think the Diet and the Noda administration(or whoever follows) can really say No! to sanctions?

    Japan cannot operate independently of the U.S., no matter how much many would truly like to. Japan is wedded to the U.S.-for better and worse. Japan is just trying to survive, and using the strongest partner for more than a half century to its best advantage. Japan will follow the U.S.-albeit from the rear as it should and must-in dealing with Iran.

  • 0

    Patrick Hattman

    @Farmboy:

    Yes, well, IF we buy the idea that Iran has nukes, I suppose the idea is that it's better to push things now than to wait until they have more of them. I feel fairly confident that, if pushed, Iran will push back. I hope this doesn't get messy. It's a pretty worrisome situation that seems to be developing.

    If Iran is truly a danger to the world, including the U.S. on the other side of the world, then it seems strange to me that countries like Russia and China-which should be in imminent danger-are not at the forefront of putting the screws to Iran-if not getting ready to lead the charge to war.

    It's been 20 years since I was in the Navy during the first Persian Gulf War. Two decades of American efforts to make as much of the region as possible the lucky recipient of peace, freedom and democracy etc.

    Perpetual war for perpetual peace, I guess it is.

  • 0

    presto345

    From Japan's point of view, though, it would be a good idea to buy as much oil as they can right now and store it. Oil is, as I understand it, denominated in dollars, and buying a lot at a time the yen is high and the dollar is low makes good sense.

    Storage capacity is limited and a buying spree will only raise prices.

  • -1

    yyj72

    Hajimemashite, Alberta Tar Sands. Yoroshiku onegaishimasu.

  • 2

    Farmboy

    If Iran is truly a danger to the world, including the U.S. on the other side of the world,

    Well, China (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Republic_of_China%E2%80%93Iran_relations) and Russia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Russia_relations) both have fairly strong trade ties with Iran in hydrocarbons, agriculture, and weapons, I think, so they would probably lead the charge to leave things alone.

    The US is looking at two things, I think. One is stability of the oil supply. The other is that Iran is supporting groups that blow stuff up here and there, killing lots of folks in the process. The evidence for this is stronger than the evidence for nukes. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/19/business/global/19launder.html)

    The world has become more hawkish overall, unfortunately. Everyone wants to fight, and almost nobody with any power is seriously talking about world peace, or if they are, it's always something that comes after a war that is about to happen. Personally, I wish everybody would take a chill pill. Japan is caught in the middle of all this, and any escalation is going to hurt.

  • 1

    presto345

    With virtually no fossil fuels of its own, energy-hungry Japan is heavily dependent on the Middle East, with Iranian oil accounting for nearly 9% of its power needs in the first 11 months of last year.

    Although I see nothing good coming from boycotting Iranian oil, I still haven't seen any signs of scaling back on energy waste in the form of excessive lighting in my city. With the cooperation of every citizen in Japan 9% could be saved without too much difficulty.

  • 1

    Farmboy

    That's true, but storage capacity can be increased quickly, and the prices are going up anyway if the Iran situation worsens. The thing is, Japan is trying to bring the value of the yen down currently by buying dollars and selling yen in the foreign exchange market. This costs a huge amount of money, and I'm wondering if the same effect wouldn't come from buying a huge amount of dollar-denominated oil instead. That way, they would at least have something to show for their efforts.

  • 0

    Farmboy

    Sorry, my post above was in response to the following:

    Storage capacity is limited and a buying spree will only raise prices.

  • 1

    ka_chan

    What is this about no natural resources.... give me a break. What about geothermal and hydro? Right they think natural hot water is only good for onsens... Then there is wind and solar. Wind they have plenty of... hot and cold.

  • 3

    zichi

    only 13% (36.4GW) of total power is generated from oil.

  • -2

    DentShop

    only 13% (36.4GW) of total power is generated from oil.

    See all those trucks delivering everything necessary that makes Japan go around? All the planes and ships that freight all of Japans food imports and machinery exports? All oil powered.

    Between them and all the other US and NATO naval/air forces in the region any action by iran would lead to Iran having its navy sunk.

    Iran has plenty of land-based missiles which will make it impossible for a navy to open to the Strait of Hormuz. This is where all the oil freighters have to pass through. The US would have to put boots on the ground and that would make Iraq and Afghanistan seem like a day in the park. Not sure the US could afford to do it and if it turned sour before summer - Obama wont be re-elected. Heck of a risk I might say.

  • 0

    Laguna

    I only hope that the proud people of Japan – loudly, clearly, and actively say – NO! No to sanctions and No to War!

    C'mon, Brigitte, let's substitute "North Korea" for "Iran" an see how they'd react to a similar statement. Iran is not a direct danger to the US - but neither is NK . The concept of "ally" seems to differ between cultures.

    As I mentioned above, Obama is no Bush, and the US has no intention of plunging into war with Iran. Sanctions often do work; they did with Libya (until his own people got fed up with him); they probably would have with Iraq. Iran is not as foolish as Japan was in 1941 to start a war with the US.

    More important, other actors are looking on impatiently - and not just Israel. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey - not to mention Iraq - would not welcome a Persian nuke a t a l l.

    Iran is a psuedo-democracy, and there are additional avenues for course correction (the Ayatollah holds all the cards in Tehran, after all). Plus, there is always the people themselves taking things to the streets. An acceptable proposal to all would be honestly and completely opening up Iran's nuclear industry to IAEA inspections. Iran could thus abandon their nuclear weapon ambitions without any Americans intruding on their soil; they might even be able to reconfigure their nuclear infrastructure for truly peaceful purposes.

    • Moderator

      All readers back on topic please. The subject is Japan's oil supplies. Posts that do not focus on that will be removed.

  • 0

    oberst

    The alternative is obvious.................look east, japan, get your oil from Canada and Mexico. No threat from the Chinese navy too.

  • 0

    Laguna

    For Japan to secure a stable supply of oil, it needs a stable region able to supply it. The US has made a dramatic policy initiative which it feels will restore stability to a region rich in oil. If Japan does not agree, it should say so; if it does agree, it should search for alternative supplies. It should not try to be a free rider.

  • 0

    Christina O'Neill

    Japan should be able to import their countries needs without fear or favour. Free from any pressure being imposed to comply with any outside interference . If this is a democratic world,

  • -1

    wtfjapan

    looks like another "Gulf War" on the horizon.

  • 0

    BrigitteD

    Well all I can say is that the country who will benefit will be China who would be far happier to purchase all of the oil that the rest of the countries by force of sanctions have to abandon from purchasing. China will be able to negotiate discounts on fossil fuel with Iran helping to boost its own economy, while Japan will be forced to purchase crude at a much higher cost, as well as increased transportation cost. For those who believe that Saudi Arabia can easily replace Iran's exports that easily you have to be dreaming. Furthermore, you think Saudi Arabia is not going to take advantage of this opportunity and ensure that oil prices are kept high.

    Who is going to benefit from all of this the Japanese - I don't think so.

    In a world where countries are suffering from economic recession it is unfair to bully other countries to go along with the US imposed sanctions just because the US believes it can get away with such pressures.

  • 0

    Patrick Hattman

    The US is looking at two things, I think. One is stability of the oil supply.

    Iran would never try to cut off the Strait of Hormuz, unless all-out war was started. They have to use it to get the majority of their own oil out, or what they are allowed to sell to foreign countries like Japan these days.

  • 1

    Deplore

    How can any Japanese not compare the current scenario with Iran with that of its own? In The US froze Japanese assets in the U.S., embargoed vital oil and steel exports, and the final provocation and ultimatum which America wanted and knew would lead to war -- a war that took the lives of hundreds of thousands of innocent lives when America ruthlessly used the nuclear bombs.

    This analogy completely backfires when you recognize that Japan was in the process of killing millions of people and if it wasn't for the United States entering the war millions more would have died.

  • 0

    kurisupisu

    Where is the evidence for these sanctions?

  • -1

    peanut666

    **The fact is that Japan should buy oil from any country willing to sell it to them. **

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