Japan posts Y111.5 billion trade surplus in October

I'd always be suspicious of any economy whose growth is measured by the fluctuating value of the things being traded, rather than the vitality of the actual trade. Anybody else here understands what I mean? Like the amount of trade could remain the same, but since the cost of importing is lower, it would appear the exports are higher (in this case, the exports actually declined). It kind of reminds me of the case where, by devaluing the yen, businesses' gained record profits (I'm sure there were other factors there but still...). However, lower energy import costs would always be a plus to any economy in my opinion, unless if your economy is based on energy exports.

So, this month the commodity dice threw up two sixes. And?

A trade surplus doesn't necessarily mean good news. It could mean that due to diminishing purchasing power people are spending less in general and more in particular on imports. Trade surpluses mean good news for corporations only. It does nothing for the people. Under Abe Japan Inc is safe. The rest of Japan is going to hell in a handbasket.

You can say Abe is lucky that the oil price is weak, but that's because global demand for everything is quite weak. Including Japanese exports that can be bought with cheap yen.

I think the real focus needs to be on the domestic economy. Get more women into the workforce, sort out the pensions mess, and get the oldies with money spending.

Both exports and imports fell to differing degrees. That is, trade slowed. It's better to be having a trade surplus than a deficit, but the fact that two-way trade activity sank reinforces the view that the Japanese economy is in recession, unfortunately.

Abe should get some new advisers to review the results of his "crash the yen" policy prescription.

You'd think if it hasn't worked already, but should have by now, a good leader would seriously consider charting a new course, correcting mistakes. Instead Abe redefined his three arrows as targets and slogans, rather than specific policies he would enact to help the economy get back on its feet.

I've got my fingers crossed for a win for Oosaka Ishin in Osaka this weekend, and then hopefully they can attract support for reform policies in the national elections next year. It's not good for Japan's economic health for Abe's LDP to remain in power (especially seeing the nonsense they are contemplating to placate their Komeito allies).

Abe should get some new advisers to review the results of his "crash the yen" policy prescription. nothing crash about it , its at about the same level that it was before the US QE and GFC.　　having a strong yen certainly aint going to make things better, exports will dry up and all those chinese tourist buying up all those Japanese products wont come to Japan in the first place. No I think the Yen value is were it should be and will be for a long while yet. If your an importer of foreign goods or sending those wages back home to your country then your not really helping the J economy anyways

If your an importer of foreign goods

Every single one of us is "an importer of foreign goods". Energy is priced internationally, has skyrocketed since Abe crashed his own currency, and is making every resident of Japan poorer.

nothing crash about it , its at about the same level that it was before the US QE and GFC.

Is that a valid point of reference? There was a massive yen carry trade prior to the GFC, 2004-2008.

Adjusted for inflation rates over time, the yen is about as weak now as it has been in 30 years.

Currency fluctuations produce winners and losers, but overall I don't think what Abe has manufactured has been good for Japan's overall economy... as we see with the economy dipping back into recession. Wasn't it supposed to help more?

There's other things Abe should have been doing.

　having a strong yen certainly aint going to make things better, exports will dry up

True, if the plan is to compete internationally on price, not on quality. Is that the sort of economy Abe aspires to? Rather than hark back to the old days, the aim should be to move Japan's economy to the next level.

and all those chinese tourist buying up all those Japanese products wont come to Japan in the first place.

That'd be a tragedy. They'll have to buy off Ali Baba instead.

ThonTaddeo,

Right that we are all importers of foreign goods, but the international energy prices have actually crashed, fortunately, like a kamikaze. The impact of the weaker currency could have been much worse.

Less power being used because economy in recession?

@Kohakuebisu "I think the real focus needs to be on the domestic economy. Get more women into the workforce, sort out the pensions mess, and get the oldies with money spending."

I agree with what you're saying here, but whats most important is timing and order in which these things happen.

If we get more women in the workforce now, supply of labour will go up putting downward pressure on wages. Right now theres growing upward pressure on wages paid by companies as there is higher demand for work than there are people to take the job offers (source:keidanren). Of course at some point in the future we would want women working and paying taxes( at least the ones who want to work), and that revenue would go to supporting the pension burden. But we would also still want the pension system drastically reformed first before we throw more money into it.

Old people spending money, at least the ones who have money to spend, is a tough one tho as they have no clue as to how long they will live, and the last thing they want is to have to be supported by their children/grandchildren.