Thursday May 24, 2012

JAPAN NEWS AND DISCUSSION

Japan economy rebounds in July-September quarter

Business Nov. 14, 2011 - 04:00PM JST ( 9 )

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9 Comments

-1

herefornowNov. 14, 2011 - 09:53AM JST

The Cabinet Office said the annualized figure translates to GDP growth of 1.5% from the previous quarter.

Given the above, the 6% headline is a bit deceiving. Especially since even Japanese experts do not expect the increase to be sustained. But at least this is encourgaing and stops the slide for a quarter.
1

globalwatcherNov. 14, 2011 - 10:09AM JST

Gambare, gambare, Japan!! This is soooo encouraging. I am very happy for Japan.

Hope for Japan
-1

naruhodo1Nov. 14, 2011 - 10:13AM JST

Im so glad that one paragraph on consumer spending being 60% of the economy. Economics 101. Consumers rule economies. Japanese unique situation that makes it different from all other economies is just that. The national hobby of japan is shopping and going out. Japanese homes are meant for sleeping only and hence the size, lack of furniture and so on. Japan will only fail when people stop spending (which is against their culture especially when it comes to giving souvenirs), and i cant see that changing in the near future. This only applies to major cities in Japan which should account for the majority of the population.
1

japan_cynicNov. 14, 2011 - 10:24AM JST

Not so much " a bit deceiving" as flat out wrong. According to the article, the actual data show a 1.5% rise in a quarter. While that's better than nothing, it is not 6%. If you want the annual figure, then compare to a year ago, don't just take some (unrepresentative) short interval and scale it up as if it applies to a whole year! 6% in a quarter (which is what the headline actually claims) would be pretty remarkable...
-3

some14someNov. 14, 2011 - 11:43AM JST

Because it is "deceiving" it is strengthening Yen and TSE today :)
0

Graham DeShazoNov. 14, 2011 - 02:58PM JST

Economists sometimes refer to this as the "dead cat bounce." Drop a dead cat far enough and when it hits bottom, it will rebound somewhat before dropping again. I see nothing in my area of Tokyo to suggest any kind of sustained economic or employment growth. And once the stimulus effect of rebuilding the infrastructure wears off, and the bills start comming due. Well, let's just say that this is the kind of thing that a rainy day fund would have helped. Instead, we will fund this by burdening our children (and their's as well) with taxation levels that fall just short of crushing.

(Rolls eyes, sighs, reaches for the bottle....)
-2

herefornowNov. 14, 2011 - 10:40PM JST

Im so glad that one paragraph on consumer spending being 60% of the economy. Economics 101. Consumers rule economies.

naruhodo1 -- maybe you should have taken Econ 102. The fact of the matter is that Japan's 60% is AT LEAST 10% below other major developed economies, like the U.S. As a result, Japan is still too heavily dependent on exports for growth, since domestic consumption has basically been flat for years, due to the aging/shrinking population. Finally, much of that spending is paying for inefficiency built into the domestic economy in Japan, which is not a productive use of capital. And why decades of pump-priming measures have not worked.
0

naruhodo1Nov. 14, 2011 - 11:06PM JST

Herefornow, the only time i see shopping malls, electronic mega stores, and other shops packed in Canada and im pretty sure in the US as well, is for xmas, the month of december. Its december in Japan all year round. No idea what point ur trying to make. My point is basic. Consumer spending=economy. Dont even dare compare one of the worst times in history for the US economy to Japan. Here stores in my little city in Aichi keep opening up like theres no tomorrow at a faster rate than they are closing down. And for the millionths time ive said this, just google japans economy and u will find that exports account for only 20% of the Japanese economy. 75% is services such as banking, insurance, retail, telecommunications, hairdresser, restaurants!!
0

nigelboyNov. 15, 2011 - 12:35AM JST

naruhodo1 -- maybe you should have taken Econ 102. The fact of the matter is that Japan's 60% is AT LEAST 10% below other major developed economies, like the U.S.

I have U.S. at 71%, UK, UK at 65%, Japan and Germany at 59%, France at 58%.

http://www.stat.go.jp/data/sekai/pdf/03.pdf

As a result, Japan is still too heavily dependent on exports for growth, since domestic consumption has basically been flat for years, due to the aging/shrinking population.

Great leap there herefornow. As the above link indicates, domestic consumption has been flat for years for many developing countries. As others have on numerous occasions alluded to, Japan's export to GDP ratio is low compared to let's say Germany.