Uncertainty over UK role in EU could choke Asian investment

Goodbye UK!

'Japan’s leading Nikkei business daily used an editorial to urge Cameron to draw closer to his continental partners, while finding a way to pour balm on the burning nationalism of parts of England, and the Scottish pull towards independence.'

He campaigned on English nationalism to try to outflank UKIP and effectively told the Scots to vote SNP. Also, given his small majority, the rightwing in his own party can hold a gun to his head over Europe like the 'bastards' did with Major. I don't honestly see how he can 'pour balm on the burning nationalism of parts of England, and the Scottish pull towards independence'. He's been stoking up these fires himself.

They said similar things when the UK refused to join the Eurozone. And...they were wrong.

The UK has been placed in a unenviable position, not to be confused with the hackneyed cliché ridden harpy conundrum confusing elements of a finite number of migrating eastern Europeans.

Essentially all depends on how you define ‘break up’. If seen as a break up of a monetary union, essentially Greece triggering the collapse of the Euro. Then two challenges are at hand, a fact derived from economic dissatisfaction and political supra-territorial organization....

Nuff said for now.....

Debate has to reach beyond a perceived 'Tory' insular bury the Bulgarian. .......

@JeffLee

They said similar things when the UK refused to join the Eurozone. And...they were wrong.

This has nothing to do with the Euro and you can't really compare the two. Adopting the Euro was not a prerequisite to doing business in Europe. If an international bank wants access to the European financial services market, they will have to have a physical presence in Europe to comply with EU regulations.

If the UK leaves the EU, maybe it means that banks will open two small offices, one in London and one in Frankfurt, but they certainly won't be opening or keeping a single large office in London.

"If these negotiations proceed well…(the) UK is likely to vote to stay in the EU"

It doesn't really matter how they proceed. Cameron will return to Britain waving aloft a document and declaring it a victory for common sense, even if the agreement is largely incomprehensible. The Daily Mail will still urge voters to leave the EU, but the Sun will have headlines such as "Europe needs us". The vote will be 60-40 to remain in the EU. In the end, we need the EU to blame stuff on.

The fate of the Euro and the EU are straitjacketed.

To fully appreciate the folly of the Euro one has to fully risk quantify the Target2 claims and the solvency of central banks.

Contemplate the financial consequences to the EU institutions including the ECB, the EFSF and Eurozone governments through bilateral lending, notwithstanding the IMF.....

All of these institutions would lose substantial amounts of money......How can one put this, through April institutions quantified disorderly failure of a sovereign....The numbers are biblical, every bit as disastrous for those connected to it via trade and capital links. It is head out of backside time........

The EU is a failed attempt at keeping the West relevant.

Order out of chaos here we come.

Any move to jump into the abyss and go it alone would not automatically cause a sudden capital flight from Britain, said Daiwa Institute’s Yamazaki.......

The mind numbing irrelevance to this statement is the degree of economic obliviousness Daiwa Institute’s Yamazaki has attached to current events.....Privately institutions are questioning what meaningful significance an in/out referendum will have until events have taken their course in southern Europe. And then it will be a question of how effective any structural reforms will prevent a further collapse in peripheral states. ...

A Reuters feed report highlighted by Yahoo finance Greek PM warned lenders of not repaying IMF debt in May: report..

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/greek-pm-warned-lenders-not-185921304.html

@M3M3M3

"Adopting the Euro was not a prerequisite to doing business in Europe."

Whereas being an EU member is a prerequisite for doing business in Europe? Yeah right. Tell that the Japanese and Koreans.

You dont seem to realize the massive brouhaha by "the experts" at the time over the Euro. Its adoption wasn't just about a single currency but a converged monetary system and policy that would set the stage of 21st century financial transactions.

This was supposed to create huge efficiencies and symbiotics. And English banks still using old-fashioned pounds and pence were predicted to lead to the decline of London as a financial center.

I recall a car executive at Mitsubishi in Belgium in the 90s relating his woes to me. When I look at my notes now, I realize that everything he said on the topic was wrong. And this was the conventional wisdom at the time, which is also the conventional wisdom now.

I think the vote will be held next year and Cameron will obtain very few, if any concessions from the EU. Still, I hope and believe that the UK will vote to remain in the EU. Most of the problems in the UK are the fault of the UK government, not the EU.

In the worst case I might have to buy a place in Scotland and claim to be Scottish. There is no chance Scotland would leave the EU, no matter what people in England might choose to do.

Hi Scrote, Hold that house purchase, Scotland is not a member of European Union......Any future membership proposals in the event of a vote of independence would be through legal interpretation under articles 48 and 49 of the current European Treaty. Either route would require unanimity among the 28 Member States...