The pundits are betting that the prime minister, Taro Aso, will dissolve the Lower House of Representatives and call a general election at the end of November—while he is still enjoying his “honeymoon” with the Japanese media and the public. According to the Nikkei, he is trying to pick a date in between the gyrations of the financial markets, where the electioneering can focus on future issues such as funding pensions and repopulating the country, rather than having to deal with voter fears of lost jobs and lost savings.

Good luck to him, because I believe that there is likely to be some more major derivatives-related upheavals globally before things settle down into a nice calm recession. The betting is that Aso will make his decision by the start of November, latest. If he doesn’t go for it then, I predict that he’ll wait until March, when spring is in the air and everyone is feeling more positive about the world. At any rate, he has until next September to call an
election.

Right now, Aso’s personal popularity is fairly high, with a public approval rating of around 40% according to media polls. This speaks well of his image and personality, which stand in stark contrast to the aseptic image of Yasuo Fukuda, the previous PM. Fukuda’s cabinet approval rating prior to his departure was just 29%.

Because Aso has to move quickly to lock in an early election, he has been busy over the last four weeks building his maverick time-for-a-change image through constant media events such as making bold financial predictions and pump-priming legislative moves. He has also been playing the media with character-referencing pushes, such as his youth voter angle, where we’ve seen his love of manga, geekdom, and Akihabara. Apparently a “senbei” (rice cracker) company even made a product bearing his likeness and attached the phrase “cool old guy” to it. 

But try as hard as he might, most voters know deep down that Aso is anything but a breath of change. He is too well pedigreed for a start, having been born into a wealthy political family, and he was too close to the LDP excesses of the 1990s to not be identified with them. He is not a reformist in the vein of Junichiro Koizumi and despite the show put on for the public by the LDP in September to make it look as if Aso had been elected as party president after a fair fight with the other four candidates, the man in the street saw right through the charade.

In fact, it was business as usual, with the LDP faction heads deciding who would come out on top. Given that Aso runs a small faction (6th largest) in the LDP, I presume that much like Koizumi before him, he was seen as the least difficult candidate to put in temporarily while the search goes on for a proper populist replacement. Certainly, he would have been seen as expendable by faction bosses such as Machimura. Just how expendable will become clear in the upcoming election.

What the LDP really needs is a Koizumi replacement—someone with charisma and a populist message, but at the same time someone who is a bit more manageable and not so radical. It couldn’t have pleased the party much when Koizumi rose to unprecedented popularity on the political platform that he would destroy his own party if necessary! The reason they now need someone so capable to grab the public imagination again—is that this person is going to have to lead Japan and its voters through some very difficult times, enacting extremely unpopular legislative changes to raise taxes and drop pension benefits, not to mention wrestle to reduce the nation’s king-sized public debt.

While there is no obvious candidate to save the LDP in the near future, I think that the September LDP party presidency race may give us some clues as to what the kingmakers in the back rooms are thinking. They have realized that since it is unlikely and perhaps undesirable to have another Koizumi, they need to manufacture an appropriately attractive candidate instead.

My bet is that the LDP is toying with either Yukiko Koike, to bring an attractive female to front the party, or Nobuteru Ishihara, who is also popular with both young people and female voters. Both of these people represent the next generation for the LDP, and it was no accident that they were paraded in front of the media in September, in the race against Aso. The purpose of their running was, I believe, not to win against Aso, but rather to condition the public to seeing them over the next three years as viable candidates. By trying for the grand prize and losing the first time around, they will become identified over time as being “battlers”—a required trait for a culture that believes people should earn their positions the hard way.

Interestingly, like Aso, both politicians are English speakers and have studied overseas. Koike apparently graduated from Cairo University in 1976, while Ishihara went to ElmiraCollege in New York before coming back to graduate from Keio University. Both candidates are nationalistic and have said that if elected they will continue to worship at Yasukuni—an indication to me at least that they still have to kowtow to the old guard in the LDP.

Some things don’t change. Of the two, I favor Ishihara. He’s not exactly a chip off the old block and seems to be able to think for himself. His dad, Tokyo Gov Shintaro Ishihara, should be retiring soon anyway, letting Nobuteru make his own name for himself without being overshadowed all the time by his more famous pater.

Nobuteru was particularly active in the Koizumi administration, serving as the Minister of State for Administrative and Regulatory Reform at one point. Ever since that post, he has maintained his reformist, free markets stance. He is also intelligent, coming across over the media as a rational and normal person, unlike some of his older colleagues who, if they aren’t ranting about the problems caused by gays and foreigners, instead reek of
back-room fixing.

Terrie Lloyd writes a weekly newsletter for entrepreneurs and business people about business and political opportunities in Japan.

› Login to comment

7 Comments

• 

  Triple888 at 09:41 AM JST - 25th October

  Doesn't matter if it's Nobuteru or Shintaro both likely to have similar (controversial) views. Like father like son they say.

• 

  Ninjazilla at 12:10 PM JST - 25th October

  The LDP old guard has a problem with gays?please elaborate?

• 

  cow76 at 04:00 PM JST - 25th October

  Very interesting and informative article, thanks. Hopefully Aso will lose the next election and we can have the DJP for a while. They're probably exactly the same but at least they're not the LDP.

• 

  pathat at 06:38 PM JST - 25th October

  I'm betting that Aso will not dissolve the Lower House til next spring. I just don't see an advantageous time for the LDP to have the next election this year.

  I can see Yuriko Koike getting some support as PM down the road, but I agree with Terrie that Nobuteru Ishihara is being groomed for the position of prime minister.

• 

  timorborder at 07:03 AM JST - 27th October

  Aso only has the job of PM at the moment because no body else wants it. Given the short-term past (and that is all that matters in Japan), the LDP is probably going to suffer a setback at the next election. Traditionally, who ever leads them to such a defeat (which usually does not actually involve a complete loss of power) steps down. Aso has been put in office to follow this tradition at the next election.

  With regard to Ishihara and son, Nobuteru seems the have the intellect that his father tries to project himself as having. Shintaro has only ever been really famous by association. His brother, the actor (an eratz Japanese version of James Dean) was the heartthrobe of Japan. Shintaro was just a writer (despite claims of excellence, he ain't know Kawabata or Mishima). His image has also been built up by certain fawning mass media companies. As a national level politician, the elder Ishihara's claim to fame was writing that book with Akio Morita (founder of Sony). As a local politician (Governor of Tokyo) the elder Ishihara has shown himself to be populist and very poor administrator (ask him about the bank he created). He has also expoused some loopy and sometimes racist theories.

  On the other hand, Nobuteru has a much better head on his shoulders. When Koizumi was still in power, the younger Ishihara was a key member of the reform movement. I get the impression that he is now waiting in the wings. Furthermore, he seems to be the best choice in terms of the next generation talent pool of Japanese politicians.

• 

  MissWorldTravel at 09:17 AM JST - 27th October

  cow76

  Very interesting and informative article, thanks. Hopefully Aso will lose the next election and we can have the DJP for a while. They're probably exactly the same but at least they're not the LDP.

  how can you judge Aso by this biased article? Cant you see the negativity it tries to impose on Aso. /me shakes head

• 

  mushroomcloud at 11:20 AM JST - 2nd November

  Doesn't matter who is PM in Japan, right or left wing. They will all continue to act as US surrogates.

Register or Login to leave a comment