WASHINGTON —

The next U.S. president will have to strike a fine balance between improving ties with a rising China and maintaining relations with traditional ally Japan as Washington moves to boost its standing in Asia, experts say.

The challenge facing presidential contenders Barack Obama and John McCain comes at a time when polls show that Americans believe China is more important than Japan and amid rising concerns in Tokyo that Washington is losing interest in Japan.

Democrat Obama is supportive of the half century old U.S.-Japan alliance but also favors beefing up ties with Beijing.

As the United States becomes more dependent on China not only for supplying cheap goods but also for money to finance its deficits, the Illinois senator is pushing to bring China into the Group of Eight industrialized nations.

He is also inclined to support incumbent President George W Bush’s strategy of using China’s leadership in six-nation talks aimed at ending North Korea’s nuclear weapons drive.

Republican Senator McCain, on the other hand, is more cautious about relations with China as it evolves into a rising military power and poses a threat to U.S. influence in Asia.

The former Vietnam War hero is stressing a conventional bilateral alliance-first policy, with Washington having to give priority to beefing up ties with traditional, democratic allies such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

Even as the American public begins to understand the multi-faceted aspect of U.S. engagement, cooperation and competition with China, the next president faces some tough choices while trying to balance ties with Japan, experts said.

For example, will he agree to sell Japan F-22 fighter jets—as requested by Tokyo—that are more capable than those in China’s expanding air force, asked Michael Green, a former White House top Asia hand during the first Bush administration.

He also questioned whether the new administration would coordinate closely with allies Japan and South Korea before dealing with North Korea even if it risks slowing down the process of disbanding the hardline communist state’s nuclear weapons arsenal.

“For the next administration that would come down to some tough specific calls,” said Green, also an adviser to the McCain campaign.

The Bush administration angered Japan recently by removing North Korea from the U.S. state sponsors of terrorism list despite Pyongyang’s refusal to fully account for the fate of Japanese civilians—a highly emotional issue in Japan.

Japanese politicians saw it as a U.S. betrayal, with the main opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa saying the Japan-U.S. alliance “isn’t really an alliance.”

Amid the strained ties, a U.S. think tank published a poll on Oct 28 which showed 52% of Americans saying China was “very important” to the United States compared with Japan (45%).

When asked whether Japan or China was more important to the United States in terms of “vital interests,” 51% of those polled named China, while 44% cited Japan, according to the study by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

But the council made clear that Japan’s ranking in terms of importance to the United States was still ahead of other close allies like Israel (40%) and Germany (29%) and Saudi Arabia (44%).

“That to me is very striking,” said Rachel Bronson, the council’s vice president.

But Keiko Iizuka, a Japanese journalist currently a visiting fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, said it was “not wise to compare” U.S. relations with China and Japan.

“China would never become the ally for the U.S. in the foreseeable future because this U.S.-China partnership is based on commercial, trade, economic ties whereas the U.S.-Japan alliance is comprehensive, including security, economic, cultural and social ties,” she said.

Iizuka said the next U.S. president had to lay the framework for trilateral relations among the United States, Japan and China.

“It makes me think that this is one of the fundamental agenda items for the new U.S. administration to formulate a foreign policy that involves the element of trilateral relations,” she said.

AFP

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Latest 15 of 36 Total Comments Show All

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  dennis0bauer at 04:04 PM JST - 4th November

  Japan has never been more than a stepping stone for america.

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  memyselfI at 04:37 PM JST - 5th November

  1st option Group Hug anybody !!!! I got a perfect idea. All the leaders from China Japan and the USA will have a GROUP HUG. And then they can sit down and chat about why do we need each other. China is needed because they make and manufacture things cheap. USA is needed because they always create things. Japan is needed because the creat things better. Problem solved !!!! And then they all can in unison the "Hello" song I teach. "Hello hello hello how are you ? I'm fine I'm fine I hope that you are too ! "

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  memyselfI at 04:43 PM JST - 5th November

  2nd option They can do a collabo !!!! Just like the music industry!!! Gather the best scientists from Japan, China and the USA. Create a cheaper clean fuel source and muscle out the competition. Have a sleep over with Obama, Aso Taro and Chinese leader and have a camp fire. Roast marsh mallows make smores. Talk about the ecomomy ,talk about their first kiss with a girl. And then have a keg party!!!! and everything will be just dandy!!!!!

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  mushroomcloud at 12:33 AM JST - 6th November

  "when polls show that Americans believe China is more important than Japan and amid rising concerns in Tokyo that Washington is losing interest in Japan."

  This is stating the obvious, but Obama should do his best walk on the high wire between both countries. After all, doesn't China and Japan own a huge chunk of US debt?

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  Good_Jorb at 02:02 AM JST - 6th November

  I think you may have who was buying who backwards;

  Bank of China said it will buy a 20 percent stake in La Compagnie Financiere Edmond de Rothschild for 236.3 million euros (US$340 million) and the two will develop private banking and asset-management services.

  (http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/09/19/business/AS-China-Bank-of-China-Rothschild.php)

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  tokyotom at 09:11 AM JST - 6th November

  i think japan is a jealous older wife, who sees a prettier more attractive girl coming down the pike japan's own fault for its declining birthrate, failure to engage asia, and basically seeing the world as "gaikoku"

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  TonyUS at 02:51 PM JST - 7th November

  rickyso... Again many want to forget the beginnings of China's rise.. Nixon!!!!!!! The jerk Nixon.. Active engagement ring any bells with you.. I guess not. From that point on US engaged with the openning of China.. Like it or not , that is a fact in history! I see you do not like it and you want to blow it off as nothing as many wish to do or try to ignore or avoid.. I find that halarious from those that wish to believe that China was just al of a sudden some country that gave itself the power to grow. That is not the case by all means. Just 2 years ago if China's exports were to stop, China would have collapsed, another well published fact.

  But I do like to hear the BS on China's position and how it got there.. Remeber Tianamen??? That in itself was said to have set China's growth back by about three years or more because the engagement was not popular after they killed all those students and labor workers. But Keep on humoring me, like you just can not understand my point and the facts .hahaha

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  rickyso at 06:02 PM JST - 7th November

  TonyUS : 1)your jerky president nixon's 1972's warming up to china has got a motive behind, to engage and contain their biggest enemy i.e. soviet union and china just play along. 2)if china's export were to grind to a halt, china has nearly two trillion dollars reserves to hike up its economy, but did you really see it coming? 3)tiananmen was orchestrated by the west and it is a known fact. after the meddling and collapsing eastern europe, they try their dirty hand on china, got burn and turn their attention to slice up soviet union. 4)china's economy backtrack by three years after tiananmen? the west crawl back to set up more factories and pour more monies into china.

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  rickyso at 04:00 PM JST - 8th November

  TonyUS: and in return the west receive cheap goods for the peoples and savings to the economy. so, who is building who's country?

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  Athletes at 09:34 PM JST - 8th November

  In my point of view, China & Japan invested huge amount of US treasury bonds. The meaning is they are finaning the states. US has mountains of debts & economic depression. It was her own making. The cause of the problems are the high cost of the wars, excessive & unrestrained spending of Bush, low saving of the public & reckless gambling of the wall street kids. Many banks facing the liquidation and have been nationlized. Government is bailing out the banks. It was an unbeliveable development in within a few weeks.

  US needs the export market for revenue & financer for economic recovery. As a market China is more attractive. Their land & population is so huge and market is still not matured yet. Japan land & population is small and market has already matured. However Japan is more advanced in technology & intellectual property rights are protected. For high tech, Japan market is more promising.

  China is not interested in US security alliance. It is independent. Japan also want to be indepedent & gradullay chaning the constitution. Both of them like charming & beautiful flowers.

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  rickyso at 11:21 PM JST - 8th November

  Athletes: what you say are definitely true, US spend more than they can earn, and yet they put the blame on others. the notion is, they simply buy more than they can sell, instead they blame others for buying less from them, maybe their goods are no good anymore.....

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  TonyUS at 05:31 PM JST - 9th November

  Ricky the fact is that if the US did not open China its economy would never have begun. It would still be an isolated closed society which it was at the time of Nixon. If it was not for US’s active engagement policy China would not be where it is today and that is the plain facts, whether you can bring yourself to admit to that fact or not.

  While millions of Chinese are getting up going to work every morning making the goods we need and demand here in the US for everyday living, we have millions staying at home here in the US because they are not going to work making the goods our population needs and demands for everyday living. All these goods are being made somewhere else instead of the demand being met here at home, which has broken the cycle. More people usually means more demand for products and more production, but not when the needs are met by production being done in another country by other people. The same in Europe, which was also a disaster as Europe was said that the high tech industry would make up for their industrial losses, which has proven not to have taken place.

  As China has developed so has the demand for energy, especially oil, has taken a toll on everyone’s earning especially here in the US where all that you claim we have saved by cheap China goods has been very well made up for in everything that is purchased involving oil which starts from the very basics of the make up of every item.,along with the shipping of anything to do with an item starting from raw materials being shipped and retracted to the shipment of the finished product itself. Plus the very expense to everyone right at the gas pump because of the demand of oil which has been right from the cause of China’s economic rise that has hit directly on the people. Then lets go down further on the list with, heat their homes, cool their homes, and on and on and on.. So your words are foolish and pure nonsense when you can only see to the tip of your nose and not the whole picture. Many try and argue the cheap goods BS, as they wish to forget all were that cheap goods savings went elsewhere, including the jobs!!! The only ones that has gained from this mess has been China and India, those that have all our jobs and are exporting more than that they are importing and that needs to end! O do not know where you are from but I do know your view has taken the shape of many before you when it comes to cheap goods over an imbalance on trade and the increased costs of every other item we are buying including the so called cheap Chinese goods that has also taken a hike because of the rise in energy costs as well. The cycle does not just stop because of cheap goods out of China my dear friend.

  And your comment to Athletes is way off as well. The crisis that has taken place here is due to the fact of the issue stated above. Costs from 4 years ago to this time has put people in such a bind that they can not afford what they could four years ago because of the rise in the cost of living mainly due to the dramatic rise in energy costs that has taken its toll on everything plus the prime intrest rate that went from 5 1/2% to 12 1/2 %. You have a very twisted view of this or just do not take in all the information. It is you that wants to blame it on everyone else instead of the actual causes. These people could afford their homes and their life styles at that time, it was not their faults the circumstances took such a dramatic change as many , including yourself seem to want to put the blame on the people instead of the circumstances that lead to their demise. Ha then you want to blame the people that are loosing everything they have worked for. That is pethetic!!!!

  And Athletes you are also wrong that is was an unravaling of a few weeks .. As we heard in the campaigns , which I see you have no idea about, two years ago the information was there where many seen that some action was needing taken and no one took any action that would have stopped the continual degrading of the finacial institues..

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  TonyUS at 05:36 PM JST - 9th November

  Just think if the US would put the 40% tarrif on Chinese goods that many econimists say there currency is estemated at being held below its actual value. Then we woudl see some real changes.

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  Athletes at 06:56 PM JST - 9th November

  Thanks for your comment Tonyus! In my understaning, China opened the door to the whole world not only US. It was not because of President Nixon visit. At that time,their economy was socialism and state controlled. They have a policy called as "Iron rice bowl" for providing everyone with jobs, medicare and housing. In the reality,it is unsustainable in the long term. They also got a new wave of leaders who were competent and full of wisdoms. They changed their way from socialism into limited dose of capitalisim. It was back in 1978. President Nixon visit was in 1972. His visit was for his strategic interest for USSR. Not for the china economic reform.

  US is the biggest consumer in the world and contributed the economic development of China and south east asia. However it is not the one way traffic. If something manufactured in states, it will be more expensive and not everyone can afford to buy. China is not forcing US to buy their goods. China imported goods makes consumers smiles & saving. India customer service & software skills also made US companies more productive & saving time & cost too. Beside that some countries refinance as treasury bonds for making US inflation low.

  Not only US companies migrated to china for their business. Including Japan & Europe. It is their interest for surviving in the competitive business & maintaining the market shares. US transfer the technology & marketing skills into china & india has been co-operate interest. If the business can invest somewhere cheaper & more productive, they will go there. As I said before china market is huge. For them not only for the production, they wanted to get the slice of market too.

  Sadly it is a movement of globalization. Not only US, all developed countries lost many jobs & can not supply the sufficient jobs to new generation. Capital will go to labour which is promising the return. Beside that their land is cheaper & they were less green about the environment. Protectionisism will be counter productive for US.

  "You misunderstood about my comment about the crisis". I agree that there were warning signs & rumours about the finanicial problems many years ago. Current adminstration ignored the keep excessive spending like no more tomorrows. Reps promoted the free market & lazzie fare policy for capitalism. Just a few weeks ago Bush did the opposite way of what he said before. Bailing out the private companies is a socialist way. Government stepped in the controlling the financial institutions just started from October. He critized other countries before about the government intervention to the market.

  He created the Irag war which is costing a billion dollars for a week. Whenever he urged the congress to pass the huge bill he did not concern about the consequence. His permanent tax cut made the federal budget deficit getting bigger & bigger. US has both budget & trade deficits. Balacing the budget needs two option. One is rising the Tax. One is cutting the spending. He avoided both. He does not care or understand about the budgets. Future adminstration has a tremendous task ahead for recovery.

  One thing that US is fortunate. It has an international currency. Many countries willing to finace for the confidence of security & return. However recent financial crisis waned their confidence. They are analysing the risks of their investments.

  Sub prime mortage created the default loans which may never recover. In the reality banks are reluntant to borrow the high risk category of borrowers. However congress pushed for low income people to get the finance. Non banks lenders took the high risks. Some people bought multiple properties with debts. When the housing market was booming, they expected the boom will last forever. They will resell their investment when the time is right. In the reality, market slumped and their asset value is getting smaller than their loans. Banks loans become as default. Selling assets in this downturn can not make their loans back too

  Wall street kids took the high risk with other people saving for their interest. Elderly lost the retriement saving however these fiancial wizards resign with huge payout. Actually they are incompetent & destroyed other people life time savings. Market likes a wild beast. If it is uncontrolled, it will be very wild. During the 1997, Asia got financial Crisis. They reformed the financial institutions and balanced their account. At the moment they have healthier banks, well regualated transactions & some reserve. Let 's the markets and global economy recover!

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  TonyUS at 04:10 AM JST - 10th November

  That was a good post atheltes, and I understand what you are trying to say and can agree with most of it, but your concentration and main focus has been on large corporations and the people you say have bought multiple properties and the circumstances they have now come under.

  I focus on these same large corporations and the massive profits they are accumulating from their moves to cheap labor countries and where they do not face the pollution controls as they do here in the US. Of course they will want to cash in on such an environment, but at the same time if they are allowed to freely ship their goods, even though they are American based businesses, back here to the states under these unfair competitive positions, we have what we have now. Loss of jobs along with the rise of China with energy demands continually going up which besides the costing us of jobs, has cost everyone in the long run on every item they buy especially when the average everyday person pulls up to the gas pump, needing just to go to the market or to go to work, which is a huge impact on peoples incomes when , as I do, live in the rural areas, then throw in to the mix the expense in the other areas, such as electric, heating and cooling homes. This is an unfair advantage these corporations are accumulating wealth from at the expense of the people of the land where they originated. Sure they can produce goods in China or these other countries and sell them in that country and take advantage of the people in those country as for sales, but there needs to be set, a balance when it comes to shipping these cheap produced goods back to this country, or we will continue to see these huge trade deficits continue to keep us down where we are. When you are importing 800 billion dollars worth of goods more than you are exporting, you are breaking the cycle of domestic supply and demand. The people are not supplying themselves with the products, the production of the goods that is in demand. I believe in fair trade and balanced trade, and I do not care who the corporations are or where they are. There needs to be balance and rightfully so for the people of this country and the good of this country. Especially when it comes to China... not China kissing the US's butt, but the complete opposite and as we build these large trade deficits with China we see the rise of the communist controlled country that is not even our friend or ally. How much would we have to give for them to be an ally and stand for the values of our own such as our own long standing allies throughout the world? This is not going to happen and many experts say their positions have even hardened on control policies instead of taking the other path of freedoms for its people, and these same experts agree this active engagement policy has not brought about the results that was set out for it to produce, but the opposite..

  As for those loosing their house,, I do not feel much sympathy for those that have over indulged in multiple homes, but again they also a few years ago were able to afford their ventures, which has taken a drastic turn lately to where they can not afford their same positions today. The individual single households are another main focus I rather put stress on and their losses contributed to this economic melt down. These people have nothing to back them. I have a brother that was caught up in this sub prime lending rate where it added over 400.00 to his monthly mortgage payment. His lending rate was set at 5.5% then in one shot hit 12.5%. He was fine because he had a stable income and was able to take up the slack while he refinanced and stabilized his interest rate to a 6.5% over some time. There was so many that could not refinance and today see their homes up for auction. The US can not keep going down this same path and our trade policies I find to be the main problem with our economy and our means of self sufficiency.

  I am for balanced trade and especially only trade with countries that are not opposed to our way of living and our standards on human rights. That use to be our policies and our norms. We may owe China because of our misgivings and management over the years, but I find it time to start restricting our trade to countries that are our friends or want to be our friends and partners,a nd that is not China. Let our companies set up shop there, but make them sell their goods there and only ship them back here if the the status is fair and balanced in the respect of equal footing with competitive issues, also in respect to a balance of import and export numbers. An 800 billion dollar trade deficit is many people out of work that should and could be producing our needs. Right now the only issues China agrees with us on are only based on what will be in their advantage and that goes with many issues that human rights have no barring along with rogue nations power building taking no impact on decisions or policies they stand for. Completely counter to our stance, nothing like our friends and allies past and present, but here we have them our largest partner in trade with our largest trade deficit of any other country. Now tell me there in not something wrong with this picture?

  I can see some of your point and can agree with some of your views, but I believe my views are not going to fall into your analysis on all these matters as you have read my post above, but that is fine and everyone has their own opinion and views. I can respect yours.. I guess.,, but stand behind mine. :-)

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