Spats in the South China Sea

By Henry Hilton

The Asia-Pacific has reason to pat itself on the back. The current peace in the region is indeed welcome news and marks a rare moment of general stability for a vast zone that has known wars aplenty for the past century.

It might make sense, though, to view the recent spats in the South China Sea as a useful reminder that the present era of good feelings is far from automatic. There can never be guarantees in international relations that problems which have been conveniently brushed under the carpet may not suddenly erupt again and turn nasty.

The recently announced resolution over the Sino-Japanese border in the South China Sea and the Taiwan-Japan quarrel over the Senkaku islands underline the latent difficulties. Welcome news of a probable Japanese agreement with China over the extent of territorial waters appears to have coincided with confrontations on a who- hit-whom issue between Taiwan and Japan.

The reality is that Japan still has lots of territorial questions with its neighbors. The good news is that major differences between Japan and the People’s Republic of China over where the line should be drawn on the energy-rich sea map are perhaps in the process of getting resolved. As is the fact that the Taiwanese patrol boats reported to be heading until recently for the Senkakus have been recalled - strongly suggesting that both these sensitive issues are being patched up for now.

Yet there are other lingering questions. The northern territories controversy with Russia that has been around since 1945 continues to muddy relations between Tokyo and Moscow, while rival sovereignty claims between Japan and South Korea over the island of Takeshima are also in the political pot waiting for some opportunist to give it all a nasty stir or two.

In the bad old days of the Cold War, the United States was quite prepared to support Tokyo on territorial questions. The proviso, though, was that Japan had to remember its cherished hopes of getting back Okinawa might be endangered by reaching a compromise deal with Moscow over the northern territories or moving closely toward Beijing. The Eisenhower administration in the mid-1950s was never going to buy the idea of Soviet-Japanese normalization that would have weakened U.S.-Japan ties and it took years of negotiations before Okinawa was finally handed back in May 1972. The northern territories remain firmly in Russian hands to this day.

In the early 21st century, such disputes in the Asia-Pacific are more likely to be discussed bilaterally, even if Washington can be assumed to be still there in the background. Progress is certain to be slow at best as the important Sino-Japanese agreement suggests. Reports indicate that the deal - assuming it sticks - has not made clear where the actual boundary between the PRC and Japan is located, merely that there is to be joint development of certain gas fields that each nation regards as part of its exclusive economic zone.

Both Japan and China are clearly relieved to have got this deal. Yet joint development, masterminded apparently by Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and President Hu Jintao, is only the beginning of what is certain to be a lengthy and complex diplomatic waltz, given that the joint development talks have been going on for years. The differences between where Beijiｎg thinks the border should be and Tokyo’ｓ claim　remain huge．

It is surely premature to reckon that there will now be a succession of fresh “solutions” to Sino-Japanese differences. The recent findings by a reputable American polling organization on how countries view the rise of the PRC to superpowerdom in this centrury indicates pretty clearly that the Japanese people have enormous reservations over this eventuality. They don’t like the idea and therefore trust that it won’t take place - in contrast to the far greater enthusiasm of nations that share veins of anti-Americanism and are far more willing to cheer Beijing on.

Working together to exploit gas fields is merely a useful start to any long-term improvement in Sino-Japanese ties. It may be the beginning of something big but it surely deserves only one cheer for now.

2 Comments

rajakumar at 05:07 AM JST - 27th June

Way to go,South china sea, peace/progress.
RepublicofTexas at 05:32 PM JST - 29th June

I doubt the territorial disputes will be resolved for a long time (if ever). Russia will never give up the whole of the Chishima islands and certainly wont return Karafuto. South Korea will probably win the Takeshima dispute. However I think Japan might win the Senkaku dispute and the Okinotori dispute if her coral can outpace global warming.