JAPAN NEWS AND DISCUSSION
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Why do some celebrities self-destruct due to substance abuse?
( 15 )
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What do you think are the main reasons why U.S. car sales are so low in Japan?
( 35 )
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What can be done to ease escalating tensions between the West and Iran over its nuclear program? And should Japan join sanctions against Iran?
( 14 )
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What do you think of the revised plan to realign U.S. forces in Japan by sending some Marines to Guam, and rotating others to Australia, the Philippines, Hawaii and possibly Iwakuni in Yamaguchi Prefecture?
( 17 )
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Why are there so many deaths due to snow-related accidents (people falling off rooftops, for example) in Japan this winter?
( 15 )
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- Financial Advisor
- Select Asset Management KK, Tokyo
- Salary: ¥100,000 ~ ¥999,999 Paid Training Commission Based
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- Corporate Business English Trainers
- ACT Systems, Inc.（株式会社アクト・システムズ）, Tokyo
- Salary: ¥269,500 ~ ¥280,000 / Month
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- English Instructor (Osaka, Kyoto, Kobe)
- Berlitz Japan, Inc. (ベルリッツ・ジャパン株式会社), Kansai
- Salary: ¥125,000 ~ ¥250,000 / Month
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35 Comments
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neverknow2
0.0%
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zurcronium
Neverknow2, I think that is too high.
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neverknow2
But then again.... if I had repeatedly thrown rocks at a puppy. Then the puppy finally ran away to my neighbours house. Then the puppy grew up to be a savage and angry dog. I would be afraid. Very afraid.
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grafton
“How much of a military threat is North Korea to Japan?” The question is limiting in that it is in the present tense & that is not how NK should be seen. The path that they have taken to get where they are today means they must be seen as being a threat to Japan & waiting to do something about them only means that many more lives stand to be lost. Will they be a military threat to Japan at some time in the future if they continue as they are doing? And the answer is simply yes. So, rather than wait until they are capable of causing many more deaths in the region (not just Japan) deal with it now.
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FryingMonkey
Kim Jung D-Hole is a bit mad but really, he must know he would get one shot and one shot only at Japan and if he took it his sad, gray, hungry, depressing, uneducated country would be leveled. And he would be hung along with his entire cabinet. So, in my opinion there is a minimal threat at this time. But then again D-Hole is getting older and along with that goes the mind. Let’s all hope he dies before he loses his mind completely :)
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Weasel
His choice of hairstyle and wardrobe, and that he's open about it, is proof that he's already nuts.
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parforthecourse
FryingMonkey - LOL. It would not only be leveled, but nothing left but a crater - which is what should have been done long time ago.
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LAZERFISH
You know, if North Korea was close to Israel, they 'd be taken out by the Israeli's. The world needs to grow some balls and deal with NK with the only thing they understand, and that is military force. Enough of this BS already......
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mareo2
Hmm... in my no expert and personal opinion, rigth now Elvis only can launch Missiles to SK and J with chemical, biologial weapons or maybe a dirty bomb. Is a clear and present treat and is possible but not assured that can launch nukes in the future and reach Alaska. But let's be honest:
1 - Elvis just want more money.
2 - China dont want to lose their buffer state with the USA in Asia and they dont mind having a NK with nukes if limit the agressions to retoric speechs.
3 - SK dont want any type of measure that can risk de destruccion of their cities and industrial power and a sudden reunification with empoverished NK can be a double catastrophe for their economy.
4 - Japan's LDP is all tough talk, but we cant join a militar solution at least that "Elvis" drop some chemicals on one of our cities first.
5 - USA love militar solutions but is out of funds saving the Big Three and the soldiers are already fighting the war on terror on Irak and Afganistan. And dont forget that there is no oil.
6 - Russia is the only real neutral, they have nothing to lose or win. They just sit and enjoy the show.
So... let's make tougher sanctions, get a better Ballistic Missile Defense and let' NK implode from famine. If they start to die in big numbers, let China pick up the problem of having millions of refuges trying to cross their border.
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some14some
Very little, but if China is behind NK's operations i could pose serious threat to Japan...and that possibility is near zero. Stop worrying, revive economy and start living !
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Farmboy
Huge military threat for Japan,but it would be suicide for North Korea. They gain much more from threatening than from doing anything.
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USAkuma
Military threat? As in a threat of invasion? -0.0000% chance. But Is there a chance that the "Elvis" might have a rocket malfunction that lands a rocket in Aomori rather than its intended target of the seas off Hawaii? Then the answer is something like 30%
As has been said. the problem isn't Elvis, its China supporting Elvis under Elvis's threat of allowing his people to run free into China if he isn't helped. China doesn't like Japan, so there's a blind-eye mentality to any threat to Japan, but if the U.S. were to flatten NK, then they would have to retaliate to uphold their treaties and help NK out lest all those starving NK'ers come running across the border into China and siphon off any remaining resources in the area. Its that threat of backup from the Chinese that keeps America from cleaning house.
And IMO, NK is like the old proverbial "fat friend" that will always make the average person look better. Meaning that China looks so much better, despite its long history of human rights violations, than NK. As long as Elvis is around, China can say "At least we aren't as bad as NK."
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aelieth
North Korea is at this point - not a very big threat. 2-3 years from now, if they are STILL developing nuclear technology then they are a huge threat. Japan could face many more nuke attacks than they did in WWII, as could South Korea.
We're just waiting for a breaking point. At some point NK or Iran will either attack someone or just give in and become peaceful by some means or another. Either way they'll be flattened or join the International community. I believe that when one attacks the other one will as well, this will cause pressure on Russia and China due to wars on their doorsteps of nuclear proportions.
We're just looking at more cold wars, but I think the possibility is much higher than before. If one attacks, the other will know they will be disarmed too so they'll either have to sit on their hands and wait to be over thrown or go ahead and push the button and launch the attack as well.
China and Russia will most likely just defend themselves, but there is a possibility of them trying to obtain more land or take over land they previously lost. Such as Taiwan for China, some of the old USSR for Russia as well as the arctic circle.
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mushroomcloud
Unagi, please chime in and give your opinion.
These guys don't appear to have a 'No First Use' pledge, and from the looks of it, they are starving.
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vajra
None whatsoever, Kim hits Japan he's toast !
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Disillusioned
Military threat? No! International security threat? Definitely! This loon is crazy enough to send a missile to any country just to prove to his brainwashed population he is the god all mighty being he has convinced his people he really is. Why else would he be testing these weapons? He wants to use them!
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neverknow2
I don't think NK is all good and nice, but I really don't believe that they are a military threat. I think they are slowly crumbling which is why they are trying to show off how 'strong' they are. Just like a kid who pretends to be tough. We all know he's not tough, he is just putting on a show because he is scared. No different with NK.
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Shiningfinger
The Politicians, Military, and all the higher ups in Japn know that N.Korea is not a real and serious threat to the nation at present. But by pushing the issue hard they can make real gains in securing more funds and public opinion for their own nuclear development program/missle defense programs, and making future amendments the constitution. Japan has to look at the longterm situation with other growing threats like China. N.Korea is only a real threat to South Korea. Kim Jung-il is not actually as crazy as he pretends to be. But he gains as much from the image of being crazy as he does from having the world's largest arsenal of short/long range missles.
Right now N.Korea is making huge advancements in their missile/nuclear technology and they are maximizing the time that they have to test their technology aka. "Shadow boxing" for future use. I would imagine sometime shortly after the U.S. withdrawal from South korea and the military defense handover from the U.S. to the South koreans the north will look for some reason to create a confrontation similiar to the naval confrontatins of 1999 2001.
North korea gains nothing from a military conflict with Japan. Therefore there will be none. Japan has a declared self defense military and attacking another nation is unconstitutional everybody knows that. But they have much to gain from a short military conflict with south koreans without any outside military interference. And being a nuclear power with long rance missle technology will make any nation think twice before entering in a conflict with the "crazy" kim jung-il.
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OneForAll
One shot deal. Tension helps US and Japan defend against China using NK as an excuse. Japan and the US had better be able to defend themselves against NK.
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telecasterplayer
Maybe NK is no threat at all, maybe kim jong-il is just blackmailing the world into giving his country more aid (which he will keep for the top 5% and shaft the rest of his country). China is publicly saying that the nuke test was wrong, but no doubt is privately laughing that NK is a thorn in the side of Washington.
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Weasel
Think the better question to ask is how much of a military threat Japan is to North Korea?
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onewrldoneppl
the DPRK is not Iraq. they have the means & the firepower to make everyone suffer. kid gloves are required to deal with this deranged government. they may not yet have the bomb but, they could easily roll on S. Korea & Japan and kill enough people in a short enough period of time to make everyone regret the decision to attack. unlike Iraq, the DPRK has naval & air capability. imagine if they take Japan. Hawaii would next. from Hawaii, springboard to the west coast. diplomacy is the only way.
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jonnyboy
kim isn't an idiot. he took one look at what happened in iraq and realised he needed to cover his a*s. that's all that's happening here. why on earth would he want to attack any of his neighbours when it would surely end with his head on a stick? this is all just political chess. anyone attempting to make it into more than this has ulterior motives themselves
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jackfish
I think it is highly likely that NK picks a small naval battle with some country in the region. They won't shoot off a nuke, but they certainly won't hesitate to get into a conventional skirmish. And that could be costly to all involved.
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nandakandamanda
jonnyboy makes sense there. If you notice the recent missiles have all been fired in different directions, then you get the feeling that NK does not want to anger any one nation in particular.
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hakujinsensei
Threat?
Little country, no friends, frowned upon idealogy, few raw materials....
The only thing they have going for them is if they get this technology workable so they can bargain their way to providing enough money to run those collectives.
Good call in my book. Lets see, Ethiopia is in a similar situation and is doing nothing to shake things up and the world is racing to bring them into the developed world...
As for the kettle calling the pot black... America and the rest of the developed world stopped research and development on weapons when? 1944? Dont make me laugh.
How many countries has NK invaded in the last 40 years? America? 1, 2, 3, oh, the count goes on.
The most dangerous country on the planet? America by far.
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sailwind
Your almost have it right. They do want to bargain the technology to the highest bidder. Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Queda have pretty fat bank accounts.
After they sell to the plans and provide the technical expertise to Iran so they can have the bomb or a Terrorist organization that has no qualms about killing civilians on purpose to further their cause, you may want to reconsider that 'astute opinion'.
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stirfry
Kimmie had a stroke last month, and he's looking to get his second son as new leader eventually...for that he needs the military on his side, and these tests are partially to make those military guys happy
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hakujinsensei
sailwind, you might feel different if you lived in say... afghanistan? iraq? vietnam? nicaragua?...
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sailwind
You might feel different if the Taliban had the bomb, Iraqi insurgents had the bomb, the Vietcong had the bomb, the Sadinistas had the bomb or thrn again you might not as you just want to 'Fight The Power' of ugly American Imperialistic agression, the good Liberal that you are.
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ca1ic0cat
I don't think that NK is a serious threat as long as the dear little pipsquesk doesn't loose his mind. But then the bigger threat will be to SK, IMHO. A little tough to fathom what is going on in NK though.
The threat comes from the fact that NK is sinking all this money into defense at the expense of the population. They need to pay for their toys, so they need to export something. Nukes is one item they have that any number of really dangerous fools would love to have and will pay top dollar for. That's a bad situation.
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30061015
Look! Up in the sky! Its A bird! Its A Plane! No, Its another Kim dong missile making a direct hit somewhere in the Pacific ocean!
War is no threat. In fact, its good for the economy. Just what we need: government growth and stimulation. So let the good times and the tanks roll! What better time to have a war when so many are fearful and jobled? So go ahead and pull the trigger Kim and make Japan's day!
If Kim's bluster results in war, NK will be obliterated and have to be rebuilt. The banks will all prosper again. NK will then reunite with SK and build their economy into an economic superpower at some point. (Even cheaper drywall board for the next housing boom that will glow in the dark! ) This new Korean economic powerhouse will use up more of the earth's finite resources and Americans will have to pay more to fill up their gas guzzling dinosaurs. I waaaaant my, I waaaaant my SUVeeeee.
(But when I can't pay for it anymore, I'll be forced to buy a fuel efficient Japanese car) Either way its a win-win for over-extended global consumerism and state-of-the-mart obsolete export driven bankrupt G-"something or other"(attach a digit of your choice here)economies!
Oh, looky Martha! They just fired off two this time!
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Farmboy
I don't believe Kim will launch an attack against Japan, but if he did, Japan would lose, and then the world would unite against North Korea. Japan may not want to rely on my reassurance that Kim will not attack, however.
There is big business in threatening from a North Korean perspective. First, there could be a big payoff NOT to develop from the US and others (there already has been, and they backed out of the agreement), and second, nukes are a marketable item ...terrorists would pay top dollar for the technology....and even for the standard missles. The tests are marketing, pure and simple.
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