With so many legal and illegal movie download sites around, what do you see for the future of the film industry? Do you think movie theaters will go out of business?

Making films may become a more risky prospect due to your finished product being bootlegged before you have reaped the reward of your efforts, but theatres will always be with us. Nothing yet in home cinema comes close to the magic of watching it on a big screen. So many things that make going to movies something special: the woman (or man) next to you; comfy seats; the moment when the lights slowly dim and the audience becomes quiet. Still very special.

If they keep charging 2,000 yen plus to see a movie they will...

Back in the 1920's live music performers (especially "big band" groups) tried to get radio music banned because they feared it would bring an end to live performances. While we don't head out to the local music hall every week anymore I think that nearly 100 years later we can convincingly say that radio did not kill live music, with live musicians making a fortune in concerts. Likewise the claim by the buggles in 1980 that "video killed the radio star" has also proven to be untrue, if you want proof you can google the song and watch it on youtube.

Technology changes. The real issue here is that times of technological change separate the sheep from the goats. Those willing to change, innovate and embrace the new technology survive. Those who try to stand in front of an ocean of change yelling, "stop!" will always fail.

It really is that simple. Youtube (or something similar when youtube eventually dies), netflix, and similar technologies are here to stay (until they're replaced by something new). Movie theaters have innovated a bit, offering iMax and 3D movies, but they're going to need to continue innovating to compete effectively. That's business. Either shut down or get working, but whatever they do I'm sick of their whining.

I don't see theaters going out of business if they keep up with the times and adapt to what the consumer wants in their films. Personally, I will always prefer to see certain films on the Big Screen. But as sighclops pointed out, the 2,000-yen price tag for a regular showing is simply silly.

Sure, there's the Byzantine discount schedule, but if I want to see a film, I shouldn't have to wait until after 9:00PM, or until the theater chain's "special" discount day, or until the first of every month, or until I turn 50, or until the second Tuesday of every 3rd month under a quarter-moon during a non-LDP administration. If I walk into a supermarket, I should be able to reasonably expect that the meat and produce will be sold at the highest quality for the lowest possible prices at all times, not just when the store manager feels like throwing the shoppers a bone.

The high cost of films in Japan make film-going far more of a luxury than it really needs to be for an industry as old and developed as it is. Films are and always have been for the "common" man.

When the "common" family of four looks at a ticket outlay of, at minimum, 5,600 yen (US$55), not including food and beverages, to watch a film that will be available on DVD for a fraction of the price in but a few short months (or free via illegal downloads, if that's how one rolls), most families are naturally going to opt for waiting, particularly in a country that's been going through a prolonged 25-year-long recession.

Also, with home entertainment systems being what they are now, particularly when even low-to-medium-range flat-screen TVs can provide a more-than-acceptable home multimedia HDTV experience, it makes economic sense to scratch that movie itch closer to home. With all-you-can consume food and beverages tossed into the mix for a pittance.

The sad thing is that after some 13 years in Japan, I can count on one hand the number of films I've seen (that weren't Pokemon or Doraemon-like) that actually packed the theater. The industry, via a ridiculously convoluted licensing rights system, is pricing itself right into extinction. That's not the consumer's fault. It's the stubbornly inflexible film industry's.

Compare this to the U.S. market, where films are more reasonably priced, and you see a quantum leap in the size of the crowds lining up to see a popular film, and the U.S. consistently driving box office receipts worldwide. Sure, Japan is a big film market too, but a huge part of that is because it charges so darned much for a film -- almost double the prices in the U.S.

The thing is, making efforts to keep the film industry alive by getting patrons into the seat keeps the industry alive. From an economic and cultural sense, the more money made off of "gimme" films like Spider-Man, Harry Potter, and the new Godzilla, the more resources will be available for trying unconventional films and indie projects that appeal to a smaller niche market. Big films allow for big profits. But big films also make room for smaller projects and allow future writers and directors to grow and develop. None of this can happen, however, if theaters can't fulfill the fundamental requirement of any entertainment endeavor, namely filling the seats.

Drop the prices and the viewers will come.

Ticket sales aren't that bad.

The prices in Japan are a good thing. It keeps the riff-raff out and only people who genuinely want to see the film go, so there's no people talking all the way through the film as they're just killing time.

Last I checked Hollywood was making record profits, and movie budgets are higher than ever.

Illegal downloads have clearly not hurt the industry. I do think there will be fewer and fewer movie theaters in the future, but that's mostly because the gap between the theater and home experience has really narrowed. You can get a high vision movie to keep for what it costs to go to the theater, and you can watch it on your own big screen in your living room. Hard to beat that.

I haven't gone to a theatre in over ten years as it IS, they cost entirely too much now days.

As long as there is a need for that kind of entertainment it will remain. The music industry has changed, but it hasnt disappeared. Big Blockbuster mainstream type movies may take a hit-but lower budgeted independent movies that offer more variety may emerge...and making movies will become much more accessible to amateurs much in the same way making music has. Who needs movies that costs ten times the equivalent of a small island nation's GDP anyway? There is a lot of excess in movie production, both in terms of carbon foot print and fiscal ependiture that could do with bringing down a level. Less is more in terms of an artistic aesthetic designed to stimulate the mind, rather than titillate the senses. I think Hollywood taking a big hit financially could be a fortuitous development in the evolution of the collective global intellect.

I think Hollywood taking a big hit financially could be a fortuitous development in the evolution of the collective global intellect.

I think you give the collective global intellect a bit too much credit. ;-)

It used to be a big thing for my family to go to see the next Disney movie or whatever as they came out. The thing is, a lot of those should-be-good movies burned me and turned out to be total crap. Quite a few of these crap movies have caused me to hesitate at what used to be a sure thing... I would say that movie companies need to do a better job enticing an audience if they want more money.

Illegal downloads are not at all significant to this question. That is all hype. The customer base for theaters are mostly honest. Those doing most of the illegal downloads would not have gone to the theater anyway.

I don't see legal downloads killing the theaters either. But if movies are released on the net and the theater at the same time, it will surely cut into business. Yet, I can see theaters picking up the slack if they adapt and advertise their advantages over watching at home. If they don't get their butts in gear, then good riddance.

As for the film industry in general, again, most of the paying fan base is mostly honest and will continue to pay. Those who don't pay never would have paid anyway and have not been paying.

movie theaters will go out of business?

They DID. You have what 5% left compared to the 60's. Those that exist now are a different concept, closer to an amusement park, in suburbs with sound too loud, junk food and movies mostly for teens. So it's possible other new concepts appear in the future. Maybe something like karaoke box but for movies, so if you don't have the giant screen at home, you can go with a few friends.

@Cos: Actually I really like that idea. I would pay the 20 bucks or whatever for a private ~10 person room to watch a movie or two at my own pace. Do it with a 3 hour span then +X per hour after.

Throw in a juice bar and pizza or whatever and I'd be sold.

Box Office sales are higher every year. Nothing beats going to the cinema for a good popcorn flick. Now, if only they'd make a good popcorn flick...