Thursday February 23, 2012

Big quake could hit Tokyo within 4 years, researchers warn

National ( 109 )

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Searching for the missing after the northern Japan earthquake of 2011 AFP

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  • 2

    Newsman

    Presumably these guys are top-notch, in which case it will be interesting to see the government's response ...

  • 5

    Triumvere

    Prepare.

  • 5

    Gurukun

    Run!!!

  • -21

    cracaphat

    Sounds like unnecessary scare-mongering.

  • -4

    some14some

    sleep well...there's still time !

  • 5

    cadmium31680

    And there's a 25% chance it'll happen when you're asleep (assuming you sleep 6 hours a night)

  • 16

    hatsoff

    Not scaremongering in my view. It's better to have the information well beforehand to make plans if necessary. An emergency bag by the genkan or by your bed at least!

  • 8

    Samantha Zoe Aso

    I think since March 11th most of us in Tokyo, Japanese and otherwise, are expecting a quake here soon. Folk are still jittery after last year also, even though I don't have a seismically qualified bone in my body, I think with all the rattling, rolling and shaking we've been experiencing the past year, it's bound to cause 'movement' in other areas. For me, not too different from when my 3 kids squash into bed with us at night. 5 bodies tossing and turning in the bed all night!

    Just be prepared and enjoy your life. None of us know what the future holds, so enjoy the day ahead.

  • 3

    Nicky Washida

    Well, we have all been through it once to a lesser extent so we now know what does work (having an emergency bag nearby, stock of water, head straight to the nearest supermarket if you can and grab supplies, make a plan with loved ones as to where you will meet should the worst happen, get inside an earthquake proof building rather than standing on the street, etc) and what DOESNT work (the phone system, the earthquake drill system the schools make you practice every year, the trains, trying to drive anywhere, etc).

    Most of us cant practically drop everything and start again somewhere new, so all we can do is make the best preparations we can and dig in.

    I dont think this is meant to be scaremongering but to be honest I have heard SO many predictions in the last year - within 3 months, within 30 days, within 30 years etc etc - at best it keeps people on their toes and I think many WERE complacent before 3/11 - we were, for certain. At worst it causes unnecessary concern. But if a warning ultimately saves lives it can never be a bad thing.

  • 3

    Nicky Washida

    And there's a 25% chance it'll happen when you're asleep (assuming you sleep 6 hours a night)

    Yeah, make that about 10% in my case - I have The Incredible Never-Sleeping Children :( !

  • 5

    Blair Herron

    On 3.11, many people stuck in Tokyo tried to go back home walking/driving for 10 hours or so. That's not a good idea (unless it's absolutely necessary to go home). Driving will cause traffic jam and ambulances get stuck, too. Walking is dangerous. It's important to find evacuation centers and stay there. Hopefully there will be more condominium apartment buildings to be designated as an emergency shelters, like Shinagawa-ku.

    http://japanpropertycentral.com/2012/01/shinagawa-apartment-building-to-become-an-emergency-evacuation-shelter/

  • 5

    Antonios_M

    The question is: can somebody be fully prepared for such a disaster 24h per day, 7 days per week? I think the answer is no. Personally, i am really scared of such an earthquake as we all know what happened to Kobe in 1995. Fortunately, i think that Tokyo is much more prepared than Kobe was 17 years ago regarding the emergency system, the earthquake resistance of the average building, the access to information in case of such a catastrophe, etc. However, nobody can accurately predict the full scale of the damages in the infrastructure and the human losses. As it already stated, the only thing we can do is being prepared at least to the minimum level (emergency kit, keep some basic supplies at home, etc). Other than that, the only thing we can do is...enjoy life and realize that nothing is permanent in this world.

  • -5

    WilliB

    I don´t know how they come up with these figures and neither, I suspect, do they.

  • 5

    Andrew Decena

    Time to buy some walkie talkies, because we know the phones won't work

  • -4

    Mark Bradley

    I have no knowledge of geophysics, but I do have simple questions that most likely have simple answers.

    In the Great Kanto earthquake, isn't it possible that a 7+ earthquake could have occurred in 1923 at some distance and still have completely demolished Tokyo, since the architecture wasn't advanced enough?

    Is it possible that the same magnitude of earthquake in 1923 also occurred March 11th, 2011, but didn't destroy Tokyo? And was the earthquake felt in Tokyoon March 11th similar to a 7, even if the epicenter was a 9?

    If I had to take a guess. I would say that a magnitude 7 earthquake on Tokyo would not cause a lot of casualties.

  • 5

    NetNinja

    What does TEPCO have to say about this?

  • 12

    Troy Morgan

    As a member of the earthquake research community here in Tokyo, I would like to mention that the vast majority of scientists in this field feel that near-term earthquake predictions are completely unreliable, and therefore only promote unnecessary panic. It would be like some health experts saying "living in Tokyo causes cancer", then finding out the data on which this is based is a sample of 20 residents out of 35 million.

    As to Mr. Bradley, the Tohoku earthquake was not even close to being similar to a Mag 7 in Tokyo. At over 350 km away, earthquake excitation of ground decayed significantly. And most of my colleagues would agree that a Mag 7 event in the Kanto area would be expected to cause widespread structural damage and disruption to transportation systems, although minor loss of life. The codes are specifically designed to provide for life safety in such an event, but not necessarily damage resistance.

  • 4

    cleo

    Mark, the epicentre of the Great Kanto Earthquake was deep under Sagami Bay, and it had a magnitude of 7.9 - the most powerful earthquake ever recorded in Japan prior to 3/11. The fact that it occurred at lunchtime, when many people were using cooking fires, was a major factor in the number of fires that were started and did a lot of the damage. Hopefully, with better safety systems in place (eg cookers and heaters that automatically shut off when shaking starts), that won't be as much of a hazard next time.

    While you're correct that since then earthquake-proofing techniques have improved tremendously, there are also now many, many more people in Tokyo today than were there in 1923, taller buildings, larger stocks of oil, etc. I would not like to be there when the big one hits, even if the magnitude is less than 3/11. (And Mag 7 is a lot smaller than Mag 9; if the energy released in a Mag 7 is compared to the energy of 480 kilotons of TNT, the energy released in a Mag 9 is the equivalent of 480 megatons.)

  • 1

    ka_chan

    Most who died in 1923, died as result of the fire. There are known area to avoid, as where the fire swept through even onto the hill sides and any street with KAWA. Liquefaction is high in old river area and reclaimed land. A few years ago, NHK had a program that highlighted these areas.

  • 2

    zichi

    Since 3/11 the high rise apartment blocks have lost their appeal with more people seeking low level accommodations. Too many people got stuck in those high rises when power was lost and near the top you feel the quake more.

  • -1

    miyazawa3

    Thank you Academics, we are given 4 years........... to evacuate

    But Why you (Academics) could not say any thing like this...... at least 4 minutes before the 3- 11 disaster...?????

  • 4

    zichi

    When living in Tokyo, always have a "PLAN B!".

  • 0

    The Munya Times

    Now, knowing this, what is the government doing to alleviate the consequences, they have four years.

  • 0

    Virtuoso

    Actually it might just as well be four days. Tsunami are unlikely to be that much of a threat, but fires definitely are.

  • 2

    Cletus

    The Munya Times

    Now, knowing this, what is the government doing to alleviate the consequences, they have four years.

    Im sorry but is this the same useless government that has bumbled and fumbled the current disaster. The same government that doesnt keep minutes of its disaster meetings, the same government that censures and releases information in dribs and drabs well after the event. The same government that is the poster child for how NOT to handle a disaster.

    I really wouldnt hold your breathe on these incompetents achieving anything by the time the big one hits, they will still have their collective heads buried in the sand thinking alls well with their nation. And sadly most of the local populace will believe them.

  • 1

    kwatt

    It seems that the 311 earthquake might have affected other potential epicenters all over Japan. More earthquakes have been happening more often since it. It is very possible that the biggest earthquake might hit Tokyo in minutes, in hours, in days, and probably within 4 years.

  • 2

    sf2k

    Unless Fuji-san blows its top again I can't imagine any Japanese taking action. If they refuse to even move out of or their children out of a radiation zone this pronouncement really means nothing

  • 2

    Christina O'Neill

    Forewarned is forearmed, Vichi is right, a plan B, is always sensible in any country prone to earthquakes, Bottles of water, mobile phones charged, a safe place for yourself and your family to meet up. just some of the things that just in case of an emergency could be planned for as a just in case routine

  • 3

    sf2k

    Doesn't really matter when. Japan is an earthquake prone country. The best way to handle that is the scale down the likes of Tokyo and Osaka and distribute the population as evenly as possible rather than major clumps and mega-cities. Given the wonderful trains connections wouldn't be a problem and perhaps this would reduce the costs and any unfortunate deaths regardless of where and when such an event occurs again.

    Reduce population in known areas would be ideal. But concentrating so many people in a known earthquake prone area (more so than other areas) is really whistling in the dark.

  • -1

    Angus Rofe

    70 Percent Chance in the next 30 years...wow thats some practical and precise research. Its best just to get on with your life and quit worrying!

  • 1

    shirokuma2011

    I'm actually glad to have moved away from the shores of Tokyo Bay (I was in Shinkoyasu before, just a nose-length from all of the oil and gas tanks and industrial facilities built there on reclaimed--and easily liquified--land), where some of most catastrophic damage is expected in the event of a major Kanto/Tokyo quake. I'm in a neighborhood with lots of wide streets (though lots of narrow ones, too), few very tall buildings, and a good distance from rivers and expressways, and on the 5th (top) floor of a post-1990 building, walkable if the elevator goes down but built to solid specifications...

  • 0

    Samantha Zoe Aso

    @ Zichi! Too right! Maybe even a plan C or D! As Nicky said, how many folk were really prepared for March 11th? A huge reminder that we live in a country that is extremely eartquake prone.

    Hope you are feeling better, Zichi!

  • 3

    sf2k

    BTW this is not a problem limited to Japan. Maybe in that the prediction is for a more upcoming event but in general the problem is fairly common. In Canada for example, the city of Vancouver is very beautiful and is also on an earthquake fault which created Vancouver Island. The city is on sandstone, so that in the event of a large earthquake many parts of the city would essentially sink as the sand would liquify. Also in the US, my favourite city is San Francisco, again an earthquake historic area.

    We all seem to be attracted to the physical features and advantages that these areas provide while brushing off their price to be paid for living there.

  • 0

    Cletus

    Angus Rofe

    70 Percent Chance in the next 30 years...wow thats some practical and precise research. Its best just to get on with your life and quit worrying!

    Angus did you read the article? The researchers are saying 70% within the next 4 years. Its the government saying 70% in the next 30 years. Just remember this is the same government that brought you slogans like "no immediate health concerns" while feeding the population contaminated meat. Now thats a reliable source hey!!!

  • 1

    Gurukun

    I don´t know how they come up with these figures and neither, I suspect, do they.

    Well, with the timing of when this article came out, I figure they asked some Chinese Monks thier predictions for the new Chinese Year of the Dragon.

  • 0

    zichi

    Samantha Zoe Aso,

    thank you, I'm on the mend but still in bed with the flu, couple of more days? (about 7 days)

  • -1

    gogogo

    I'm no pro but there have been alot of earthquakes recently in Japan, I wouldn't just say in the Tokyo area.

  • 0

    Ivan Coughanoffalot

    Upon release of this news, my wife's mental condition was upgraded from "unstable" to "climbing-up-the-walls manic".

  • 0

    Patrick Smash

    This probably means we are within months or maybe a year of the big one. The pressures from the Tohoku quake increased the pressures on Tokyo. It's only a matter of time, but what this article is pointing out is that this could happen sooner rather than later. So we can get ready, be prepared and panic, not necessarily in that order.

  • 1

    soldave

    NetNinja - I think they talked about it in a meeting, but nobody was writing the minutes down ;)

    (RE: yesterday's story about no meeting notes being made following the quake).

  • 0

    CrazyJoe

    This means that a M7 earthquake can occur anytime within 4 years with a 70% chance. The M7 earthquake has a 70% chance occurring today and everyday for the next four years so be well prepared.

  • 1

    cactusJack

    I am gonna stay out of elevators for the next 4 years.

  • 3

    Blair Herron

    Damage Estimation of the Next Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake by Cabinet Office

    (M7.3 at North Tokyo Bay)

    [Estimated human casualties]

    7,300 (6pm, WS 3m/s)

    11,000 (6pm, WS 15m/s)

    [帰宅困難(unable to go back home)]

    6,500,000 (12 noon)

    [Material (house/building) damage]

    Complete collapse by quake: 120,000(wood) 32,000(non-wood)

    Complete collapse by liquefaction: 30,000(wood) 3,100 (non-wood)

    Complete damage by fire: 480,000(6 pm, 3m/s) 650,000(6 pm, 15m/s)

    http://www.bousai.go.jp/syuto_higaisoutei/pdf/higai_gaiyou.pdf

    http://www.geog.or.jp/journal/back/pdf116-3-4/p490-503.pdf

  • 0

    moneyyen

    So a question that I think that everybody would like for these researchers to answer. If this big quake which is a magnitude 7 hits Tokyo, how would that compare to what we were hit with back in March when it didn't hit Tokyo directly?
    What do they suppose the damage would be and what would we feel in Tokyo compared to March 11th?

  • -1

    y3chome

    near-term earthquake predictions are completely unreliable, Simply because the longer u wait, the more likely you will be right eventually. The probability a person may die in the next 40 yrs is maybe wot, 60%? wait a bit longer 90 yrs and it is 100%

  • -1

    tmarie

    Has Japan learned from 3/11 on how to deal with quakes? I hope people in Tokyo are prepared to fend for themselves if god forbid one does occur based on what happened in Tohoku and Kobe.

    No real surprise though, is it? Long overdue.

  • 0

    Blair Herron

    head straight to the nearest supermarket if you can and grab supplies

    I don't think that's a good idea. It would cause other people panic and would lead to people start hoarding. That's what happened right after 3.11 in Tokyo.

  • 4

    Patrick Smash

    Ivan, don't wish to pry, but I am sure we reached climbing up the walls manic on a previous thread. Mrs. Smash has moved from unphased to not really bothered. She pointed out that she doesn't have to work in Ginza area on recalimed land, neither does she use the subway system that might collapse. Since only Paddy is in any real danger and has good life insurance, it seems the Smashes are staying put.

  • -9

    toberts

    only GOD knows...pray

  • 0

    JapanGal

    The best place to be is deep down in a subway.

  • 1

    Samantha Zoe Aso

    @PatrickSmash. Sorry but your wife sounds charming! I worry about my hubby if a big shaky shaky hits Tokyo. I work too but after March 11th moved my job nearer to the kids's schools etc. We decided one of us had to be within walking distance of school/hoikuen evacuation zones. I don't earn as much as in my previous job but hubby and I feel better that one of us is near the children. He assures me that the building he works in is topnotch regarding earthquake safety, he works in a government building in Kasumigaseki. I still worry. I'd take him being here with us over any amount of money from life insurance.

  • 1

    Samantha Ueno

    When I lived in Tokyo I didn't have a terribly big apartment, but in the kitchen I put lots of racks in to store food. Always have at least one week (at 2 meals a day) of food in your house...it's just common sense if there is snow, you get sick, etc. About the phones not working after the earthquake.....AU emergency boards did, and that lovely thing called the Internet was still perfectly accessible from my 1yen phone so I could contact people via Twitter, mixi, or facebook. The experts were warning about the Tohoku-Minamisanriku area for years but everyone always thinks it won't affect them. I pray the experts are wrong this time....but I am very, very worried about all the people I know and love in Tokyo.

  • 1

    nandakandamanda

    If the next one brings a tsunami, the subway is not a good place to be.

    Remember to put some blankets, thermal underwear and down jackets with your survival kit, at least until the end of March.

    Plan C could be a similar survival kit in your car, if you have one, which can function as a temporary home if necessary. Many people who lost their homes in the Hanshin earthquake slept in their cars for weeks afterwards .

  • 0

    T_rexmaxytime

    Is it just me or does Tokyo seem more dead since the March Earthquake?

  • 0

    Tahoochi

    I know what I'm doing... prepare for the worst, but without sacrificing my lifestyle and everyday joys. Those volcanoes mentioned in the article also make for great onsens!

  • 1

    tmarie

    it's just common sense

    But sadly, common sense isn't common...

  • 0

    mlg4035

    Zoinks!!!

  • 0

    billyshears

    With those scandals that concerned buildings that were not constructed to the prescribed standards for earthquake-damage resistance, it makes you wonder just how many other buildings may not stand up to a very big jolt. Is your home as structurally sound as it is supposed to be?

  • 1

    JeanValJean

    Well, let's see...it's 2012, the Mayans seemed to think it significant, but who knows? Lessons learned from 3/11: - camping gear serves dual purpose -a plentiful supply of food and water is a must - keep a backpack for survival ready - have an alternater means of transportation available - be prepared for possible long-term blackout - be prepared to migrate - enjoy each day

  • 0

    Praveen Lama

    wear a money belt, you"ll need it if you survive!

  • 1

    ivarwind

    Unnecessary scaremongering indeed - correct or not, it doesn't make any difference whatsoever as far as preparations are concerned, whether the chance is 70% in four years or thirty. Both are high enough that building codes, preparations, and plans have to be in order.

    For those who think this makes a difference, do you think a 70% chance in thirty years is too little to care about? That's still around a 10% chance in four years or 25% in ten.

  • 1

    kurisupisu

    I question why anyone chooses Tokyo to live in?

  • 0

    Elvensilvan

    I question why anyone chooses Tokyo to live in?

    Because it's where the jobs are?

    wear a money belt, you"ll need it if you survive!

    I have a belt, but no money ... does that count?

    Back to the topic, no matter what the chances are, I hope the government has put up some sort of emergency contingency plans ... and to actually enforce such measures ... I hope we all learned something from Fukushima.

  • 0

    WilliB

    Tmarie:

    " Has Japan learned from 3/11 on how to deal with quakes? "

    Japan did not need 3/11 to "learn" about quakes. As you might have noticed, most buildings did just fine on 3/11; it was the tsunami that caused the damage.

    I don´t know if you have been here that long, but if you remember the Kobe quake you will also remember the massive re-enforcement of infrastructure buildings in Tokyo that was initiated after that. I expect the damage in Tokyo to be considerable less than in Kobe.

  • 0

    nandakandamanda

    You could look at this a very different way, of course. There were those scientists just before March 11th who were predicting just such an earthquake/ tsunami at the very place it was to happen. No-one gave them the time of day.

    No need to be timid now. Now anyone with the benefit of hindsight will be more willing to step daringly forward and publicly ratchet up the percentages.

    You can say after the next event, "I warned you all!"

    On the other hand if nothing happens you can always say it was only a percentage and nothing hard and fast.

    Win-win.

  • 0

    nandakandamanda

    Either way you get to keep your reputation as a scientist. Most important thing in life. ;8)

  • 2

    zichi

    Japan did lean following the 1995 Kobe Earthquake and new builds were improved and old builds retrofitted. Tokyo will do better than Kobe. The Tohoku Earthquake did less damage because it was the tsunami which caused most of the destruction. It was also an area without many high rise buildings. Tokyo survived the 3/11 very well.

    A couple of years ago, near our home in Kobe, I watched a 6 floor apartment block being built. More than 50 steel piles went into the ground, each about 50m in length. I watched them install the anti earthquake equipment. I was very impressed by the quality of it all and even recommended several of our friends to buy an apartment there, which they did.

  • 1

    nandakandamanda

    Talking about Kobe can be a good lesson for us today. A college professor friend of mine went out drinking that night. She came home as usual and parked her bicycle against the outside stairwell of the four-story apartment block. She slept right through the thing, got up and dressed as usual, and when she came down the stairs the bike was still there but the building had become only two stories high. Well, that's how she tells it.

  • -1

    just-a-bigguy

    And the Japanese politicians has forgotton 'fukushima' already, their daily business: Infighting with words continues!

  • -1

    just-a-bigguy

    All the japanese politicians were placing their stakes of the nation's future with that '30%'!

  • 0

    tokyokawasaki

    If you're really worried leave. If not, just get on with your life. Life is too short to constantly worry.

    Let's be honest, they have no real idea when the next big one will hit the Kanto region... T.I.J (this is Japan) which means someone had to put a number in the box, so Watanabe-san and Suzuki-san just randomly decided on a 70% chance in the next 4 years and 30 years... Report finished, now lets go to the Izakaya...

  • 5

    zichi

    Japan is a country which experiences many kinds of natural disasters, the Japanese have lived with it for thousands of years.

    Do whatever you can to prepare for a disaster, but just like the Japanese, you get on with your life.

  • 2

    Staffan Carle

    tokyokawasakiJAN. 24, 2012 - 03:58PM JST

    If you're really worried leave. If not, just get on with your life. Life is too short to constantly worry.

    You're right life's too short. How many people would leave if some super respected expert science team tomorrow would tell us that the risque is actually 90%?

    I move to another part of Japan. The next month they tell me that here at this new place i moved to the risque is from here on 95%. So I move abroad, to some country that doesn't have earthquakes. The next month a war starts in the very same country (totally from the blue), so I move again to the safest country in the world all categories, just to find out that I have caught a deadly virus during my travels ...

    They tell me the only doctor able to treat the illness lives in Tokyo ...

    So I go back to Tokyo, get treatment and get well. The 90% earthquake risque still remains. What do I do next?

  • 0

    Nicky Washida

    I don't think that's a good idea. It would cause other people panic and would lead to people start hoarding. That's what happened right after 3.11 in Tokyo.

    Exactly! Whether you stock up or not people are going to panic and they are going to hoard so if you are near a supermarket, get in and get what you need as quickly as possible before everything DOES run out. I saw some of the most gross acts of selfishness I have ever had the pain to witness in Tokyo right after 3/11. I am no advocating looting or hoarding. Just taking what you need. If everyone in Tokyo had actually done that, there wouldnt have been a panic and empty shelves.

  • -1

    It"S ME

    Agree with Staffan & Nicky.

    Keep chasing the Blue-bird(guaranteed safety, etc) and you will end up in a lot of places and the grass won't be greener there than anywhere else but with little to show in the end.

    Excessive worry, etc just wrecks your life and health.

    At some time you have to decide this is MY place and this is where I am, come what may. Ditto for relationships/marriage/whatever.

  • -4

    miyazawa3

    Japan is a Country of Cursed...nation....

    Natural disasters..Earth quacks , Tsunamis . and Man made most ugliest disasters for wars,(Hiroshima , Nagasaki)Atomic bombing. , and disasters came as effects of Science and technology developments for better living standards. (Fukushima nuclear power station blast,)

    No other nation in the world face so much disasters like Japan today. Good that Japan has money to cover up. with stone made heart to bear...

    Something wrong....? Japan has to rethink of their Believe which is.... the believe of unseen.

  • 1

    Blair Herron

    If you're really worried leave.

    It's easier said than done.

    Life is too short to constantly worry.

    Generally speaking, people tend to forget rather than constantly worrying.

    Let's be honest, they have no real idea when the next big one will hit the Kanto region... Report finished, now lets go to the Izakaya..

    70% in the next 4 years is controversial percentage. It could be tomorrow or in 1,000 years. But at the same time, it's important to well prepare since it is the fact that this little volcanic island is one of the world's most seismologically active areas. TEPCO should have taken things more seriously when they decided to ignore the fact that massive tsunami had hit 1,000 years ago. They said it was 想定外(souteigai), but actually it wasn't. And now look what happened. On 3.11, many people in Tohoku (especially inland) didn't evacuate even if there were tsunami warning sirens everywhere because they thought it wouldn't reach that far, but it did and they were swept away. Individuals, schools, companies, government should always prepare for the worst case scenario.

    btw, I loved the web site that showed you were helping people in Tohoku. Lovely T-shirts. Thanks, tokyokawasaki.

  • 2

    cleo

    head straight to the nearest supermarket if you can and grab supplies

    Not a good idea after an earthquake, when everyone and his dog is clogging the supermarket aisles and the roads to and from the supermarket. Better to make a point of having a stock of supplies in ordinarily, enough to keep you going a week or so. Add a couple of extra tins/dried food/retort meals etc to the weekly shopping each week, and it's easy to build up a substantial emergency supply. Keep it next to your emergency supply of water, medical supplies, loo rolls, tissues (dry & wet), torches, batteries and anything else your family needs - baby food, dried milk, disposable nappies etc., if you have little ones, pet food if you have critters. Also clean undies and sanitary items.

  • -1

    Nicky Washida

    Am I just not coming across properly with this supermarket thing? I said "if you are close to one" - if you are not then yes, dont even bother. Problem as well in Tokyo is that many apartments are too small to build up a substantial supply of anything - there is simply nowhere to put it all.

  • 0

    kitzrow

    I have not read all the comments, but did notice where people did mention that we have four years. It is obvious that predicting earthquakes is not a pure science, but when I read the title of the article the word 'within' four years stands out. To me that means it could occur anytime. I was visiting China when the last one hit and was on an airplane coming back to Calif. after visiting the earthquake stricken area of S. California the previous day I think it was 1994 .... and only hope that I am not saying where I was if the big one hits my area some time in the future.

    We just do not know, but should try to live our lives to the fullest! I certainly hope we are all fine!! I do appreciate reading most comments written here.

  • -1

    Nicky Washida

    Report finished, now lets go to the Izakaya...

    Sounds like a good mantra to me TBH!

  • 0

    WilliB

    Cleo:

    " Add a couple of extra tins/dried food/retort meals etc to the weekly shopping each week, and it's easy to build up a substantial emergency supply. Keep it next to your emergency supply of water, medical supplies, loo rolls, tissues (dry & wet), torches, batteries and anything else your family needs - baby food, dried milk, disposable nappies etc., if you have little ones, pet food if you have critters. Also clean undies and sanitary items. "

    Also, interestingly, a stack of big plastic gomi bags because all of your used supplies (including the yucky ones) have to go somewhere and garbage pickup won´t be there for a while (and neither, with some bad luck) will be running water.

  • 0

    Blair Herron

    @Nicky, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to accuse you or anything personally. I was talking things in general.

    @Cleo, Add to all your list, "Wind-up cell phone battery recharger in your bag" I was at an evacuation center trying to contact to my family and get information through cell phone TV/twitter, but batteries ran out...

  • 1

    JapanGal

    Buy plastic bags up the wazoo, because when all else stops, the toilet needs do not.

  • 5

    Patrick Smash

    This is a scientific report based on a build up of pressure under Tokyo. Take it seriously. There was a report in the Economist in January 2011 giving a 90% probability of a massive Tohoku earthquake within 20 years. We all know what happened 2 months later. This kind of figure is as accurate as anyone can get. The stresses are measured, the signs are there; no, no one knows exactly, but a Tokyo earthquake is imminent and could happen any moment. So be as prepared as you can be.

  • 0

    tmarie

    **Japan did not need 3/11 to "learn" about quakes. As you might have noticed, most buildings did just fine on 3/11; it was the tsunami that caused the damage.

    I don´t know if you have been here that long, but if you remember the Kobe quake you will also remember the massive re-enforcement of infrastructure buildings in Tokyo that was initiated after that. I expect the damage in Tokyo to be considerable less than in Kobe.**

    I guess all that flapping around with what to do after the quake was okay for you. Not for me. I would prefer schools and companies know where they need to go and what to do after a quake. As it stands now, I have seen zero new signs or training at any of the places I work.

    You also need to take into account that NEW buildings are under the new guidelines. Plenty of buildings in Tokyo are older and not going to withstand strong quakes. Heck, take a look at many of the old Mori buildings in Toranomon. Mori is kicking people out but they have hundreds of buildings that are not up to standards. Thousands of people in those buildings.

    You also have to look at the day to day of many buildings. Fire exit closed up or blocked, narrow stairs cases, people who don't know what to do in case of an earthquake. Indeed changes have happened since Kobe but in my opinion, not near enough has been done.

  • -2

    602miko

    kowai ...

  • 0

    MasterBape

    All depends on where the epicentre is. A large quake is predicted in the Tokai area and also Sagami Bay. There is also risk of the "Kanto fragment". It's not clear which one of these the scientists are talking about, but whichever, it will hit Tokyo. Also depends on the depth of the quake. It is worrying, so don't let it slip to the back of your mind.

  • 1

    Nicky Washida

    @Nicky, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to accuse you or anything personally. I was talking things in general.

    No worries Blair ;) TBH your suggestion of getting stocked up BEFORE the worst happens is absolutely sensible. I am just having a weird "not able to express myself properly" day, thats all! Must be the threat of imminent doom.....

  • 0

    Raymasaki

    I dont know why people always say scare mongering or unessary Panic, this is Really important. & they must know & prepare. many citizens won't be able to Really prepare Buying water & other things won't help if & when it hits an area. But JP scientist & Researchers will prepare & Must warn others. theres always talk of "they knew" but didn't tell us. the JSDF & Rangers do & must be prepared to save lives. i hope it Doesn't happen, four years time isn't long. IF they warned in 2009 people would have been saying the same Negitive things. Lets hope for the best.

  • 4

    GyGene

    I think there is some good advice here; thanks everyone (well, almost everyone;)) for taking this seriously. I have a place in Tohoku area that was hit HEAVILY by the tsunami. We weren't there at the time, but many friends were, and it was horrific! Many friends lost everything, but fortunately, they are fine. I think maybe Kanto folks should also think about the possibility of a tsunami coming. I have never read anything about a tsunami in the 1855 or 1923 quakes, but maybe one could come in the next big quake. I helped with relief work in Kobe, and the needs were great for many weeks for some people - it was nondiscriminatory as for as wealth, etc.; everyone was suffering. Hygiene (intake/output), water, food, warmth, etc., the basics we take for granted every day become vital. In Kobe I noticed that the thing people wanted more than anything else I took was water. I met one woman running in the street crying out for "geri" (diarrea) medicine for her husband, which I didn't have. Right, we do need to be as prepared as we can. Ganbaroo...

  • 3

    Samantha Ueno

    "Tokyo apartments are too small to build up a supply" Boo hoo. Send a box of clothes you don't wear to Tohoku, take all those books and DVDs you don't need to Book-Off, there should be plenty of room for a box of 6-2 liter bottles of water, and another box with instant food and biscuits, trash bags, a 3 pack of baby wipes, copies of your vital records, and one of those manual powered flashlights with a radio and siren you get at Daiso for like 1000y. I've seen some tiny apartments, they still had a closet with space for a couple boxes.

  • 1

    KariHaruka

    Its all very well doing these researches saying the big one could strike in the next 4 years. However it could happen now or it could even not happen in the next 4 years. We don't know when and we can't live in constant fear of it. The best we can do is be prepared for when it does strike. Keep on doing the drills, make sure people have leaflets containing information on what to stock so that your ready if a earthquake does strike and you can't get access to food for a few days-week. As we saw with last year though it wasn't damage to buildings from the earthquake itself which caused the majority of casualties. It was the tsunami, so how about better warning systems and also more information on what to do if there is a tsunami threat.

  • -4

    Nicky Washida

    "Tokyo apartments are too small to build up a supply" Boo hoo. Send a box of clothes you don't wear to Tohoku, take all those books and DVDs you don't need to Book-Off

    Sent a shedload of stuff to Tohoku. Did the same thing with books and CDs. We have plenty of space but a lot of people dont. Jeez, get over yourself. It was just an observation!

  • 0

    tmarie

    I doubt Tohoku want my unwanted English books. Also, there is no point in having this stuff in a box packed away. It needs to be by the door so it is quick to grab and get out. Sadly, my entrance is pretty small and anything in it would be in the way. That being said, we do have some stuff but nothing near what was suggested.

  • 1

    cleo

    After 3/11 having a couple of weeks' worth of supplies was a huge help when cracked roads and petrol shortages meant that little was getting onto the supermarket shelves. There's stuff that needs to be handy and ready to go, and stuff that will get you through the first few chaotic days and will sit happily in a box in a closet until it's needed.

  • 1

    Ranger_Miffy2

    I am totally stocked at home with emergency food and water, plus "go bag". That's all I can do for now. I'm OK with it.

  • 6

    yasukuni

    This is not news! I've been here for 20 years and I always knew that at any moment there could be a 7 or an 8 or more in Tokyo. It will be devastating. You talk about building standards but how many building are set to the new standards. Listen, there will be fires that start that won't be put out because fire engines won't be able to get there. It will be horrific. People drive for hours now getting turned away from hospitals. Imagine what it's going to be like with thousands injured. Ambulances won't be able to make it through many roads. It was just lucky in Kobe that it struck so early. Look at the pictures of the expressway that fell over and imagine if it were full of cars. There are so many buildings that won't survive an 8.

    People have to decide if they really want to live in Tokyo. Then if you do, you have to decide what part of Tokyo you live in and what kind of building you live in and work in. And if anything 3/11 should have taught you is that yes, you need a plan B, but you also need a plan C and D. Luck could have you in the wrong place at the wrong time, but we need to have the intelligence to increase your odds of survival. That may mean paying more for smaller accommodation that stays standing. There are some places I would never live in because they will be death traps.

    I'm not negative, I'm a realist. Everyone who lives in Japan should study earthquake/tsunami history. If you did, last year's tsunami wouldn't have surprised you. PS.I was always much more worried about the Shizuoka nuclear plant than Fukushima.

    There needs to be stockpiles of emergency supplies in more places in Japan. More helicopters, more worst case scenario plans, and I also think First Aid training should be compulsory in schools.

    It's a disgrace that japanese can all have 12 years of education including Saturdays, go to juku, and still be surprised about tsunamis and not know what to do in an earthquake.

    If you live where there a floods and bush fires you need to learn about them. Or lions and tigers. I live thinking there could be a huge earthquake in Tokyo any day and have been surprised it hasn't come yet.

    And yeah, it's not absurd to decide to live outside of Tokyo away from nuclear power plants and with room to move around you.

    As for all of you who will make a mad dash out the door, it all depends where you live and what you live in. Lots of places in Tokyo I would rather be inside than outside with glass and bits of buildings fall over me.

    give me 100 minuses if you like, but some of you really have to wake up.

  • 1

    yasukuni

    And be thankful for everyday you live safely with your loved ones.

  • 0

    whiskeysour

    Be prepare Be Prepare - phones will not work and etc.

  • 0

    Blair Herron

    According to the government calculation, most damage will be done by fire in Tokyo just like Great Kanto earthquake in 1923.

    As I posted above, the worst case scenario by the government is:

    (North Tokyo Bay M7.3, at 6pm, wind speed 15m/s)

    Total damage of house/building: 77% by fire, 18% quake

    The dead: 57% by fire, 28% crush

    Injury: 210,000

    Relatively dangerous areas in Tokyo are: East Taito-ku, South Adachi-ku, Arakawa-ku, West Katsushika-ku, Sumida-ku, North Koto-ku.

  • 0

    Samantha Ueno

    It's a disgrace that japanese can all have 12 years of education including Saturdays, go to juku, and still be surprised about tsunamis and not know what to do in an earthquake.

    But..but....they know to go under the table when a teacher tells them to! And to wear a mask if there is possible radiation in the air...

  • 6

    Samantha Ueno

    I doubt Tohoku want my unwanted English books. Also, there is no point in having this stuff in a box packed away.

    Alright, put 2 2l bottles of water and a 6 servings of instant food in a bag per person in your household, along with change of clothes, candles, etc. The point is even the smallest apartment would have room for something so important. With a bag, you could even hang it from a hook or wherever you would hang your laundry inside.

    But EVERYONE should have at least a week of tinned/instant food and drinks (water, tea, or juice) available on a shelf in their kitchen. When I got the flu, I literally could barely get to the kitchen and the toilet for 3 days because I was at a constant 39 temperature. After 3/11 the shelves in all of the supermarkets and pharmacies in my area were empty because everyone went into a panic.....because no one had any extra supplies! Maybe they just didn't have the space in their apartments? Well they sure got the space very quickly to store all the milk, natto, meat, vegetables they could grab up and put in their fridge (and subsequently had to use up in a week because they are all perishable) and economy packs of ramen, toilet paper, instant rice, water, tea, instant pouch foods, oh, and bread and snack foods. Anyway, my point is if you're just going to rush out to your nearest co-op and panic buy anything and everything you see, it would probably be just as effective to buy it when its plentiful and no one is lining up for it, and store it in a closet. If you don't use it, good, but better to have it then be one of those people trying to grab the last anpan because everything else was already sold out.

    Oh, and I am serious about sending stuff to Tohoku if you don't have the room in your apartment. Check 311help.com. In November of last year there were still people in the temporary housing that didn't have regular food supplies, winter clothes, eating utensils (I talked to several people on the phone to get their addresses, there were tall men in the shelters who couldn't fit into any of the clothes that were being sent, so my husband sent most of his winter wardrobe up......there was a family who were recycling the bento boxes and eating from them....sad, sad stuff.) I don't really have confidence that it has gotten that much better in 2-3 months, so keep sending. Maybe when you go out to stock up your emergency kit, buy a couple packs of ramen and curry and send them up?

  • 1

    RushO'Hannity

    samantha ueno thank you for that post. god bless you.

  • 0

    MasterBape

    Like I sposted before, it is still unclear which 'quake the scientists are predicting. I think it may be the Tokai quake, but there could also be the Tokyo Bay one or the Kanto fragment. The Govt. focused on the Tokai quake, so I'm presuming that's the one the scientists are referring to(?).

  • 0

    UncleBudah

    why wait 4 years??

    the Aztec said,,,2012 is the end of the world!

    go party and enjoy life, tomorrow you might die on earthquake,,

    work, and drink like usual!,,,like there is no tomorrow

    4 years, heck,,,this year, will be the end!! aHHHHHHHHHH!

    I love living in Japan!!!!!

  • 1

    peach715D

    We've already known and expected there would be a big eathwuake in a few years, but it's really soon...but now we know how to manage it. Just prepare, help each other, and trust ourselves. Hope we can power through such a huge disaster that would be coming soon. We can do it.

  • 0

    Laura JapaneseNinja-hamster Wells

    I wouldn't doubt that since last year's quake and the fact Japan has had smaller quakes since and two that I know of since the start of the year, either way - Japan will obviously prepare for this and despite it maybe hit them in the far future, it's better to prepare for it before-hand instead of having it hit them without any preparation of any sort.

  • -1

    The Truth Matters

    I'll never live anywhere without a portable generator ever again. Lost power for 5 1/2 days during the great ice storm of '09 and learned a lot about survival. People in America go crazy when the power goes out and everyone heads to Walmart. We went to the Walmart and it was a panic zone and the shelves were bare. Target had like 20 people in the whole store. We were even able to buy candles and water. The portable generator was a godsend however. We only ran it for a few hours a day but it really made the difference. I recommend everyone buy one.

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