Osaka estimates 133,000 could die if quake hits Nankai Trough

OSAKA —

An Osaka prefectural government panel said Wednesday that up to 133,000 people could be killed in the event that a magnitude 9 earthquake occurs in the Nankai Trough off Japan’s Pacific Coast.

The figure is more than 10 times the estimate given in a national government scenario in August. At that time, according to projections released by the Cabinet Office, up to 320,000 people could be killed in 30 prefectures by tsunami generated by a massive earthquake in the trough which stretches for 750 kilometers from Kanto to Kyushu. It projected about 10,000 deaths in the Osaka region.

However, the Osaka panel said its projections showed that an area three times greater than the Cabinet Office estimate would be devastated by a tsunami and that liquefaction would destroy many levees, causing even more flood damage.

But the panel said that was a worst-case scenario. It said a tsunami could take about 110 minutes to reach the Osaka metropolitan area and that the number of deaths could be reduced by 80% if evacuations begin within 10 minutes of a tsunami alert.

On a national scale, the Cabinet Office estimates that the highest number of casualties are expected to be in Shizuoka (109,000 projected deaths), followed by Wakayama (35,000), Miyazaki (34,000) and Kochi (25,000). 

However, the report said the number of deaths could be reduced by 80% if evacuations begin within 10 minutes of a tsunami alert. It also called for more evacuation centers on high ground and taller buildings, as well as regular evacuation drills.

Japan Today/AFP

  • -3

    hereforever

    Is that during and after? And does it include more casualties from nuclear meltdowns?

  • 0

    papigiulio

    nuclear meltdowns? Isnt the powerplant in fukui in the north? Apparently these calculations are from a southward tsunami.

    BTW lets hope this never happens.

  • -5

    tokyo-star

    "more casualties from nuclear meltdowns"

    Have there actually been any after 3.11? Didn't think so.

  • 0

    inakaRob

    "nuclear meltdowns? Isnt the powerplant in fukui in the north?" No I live in Fukui, for 6 years. All 13 of our reactors are in the VERY southern tip of the prefecture.

  • -1

    Heda_Madness

    "more casualties from nuclear meltdowns"

    Have there actually been any after 3.11? Didn't think so.

    Don't let any facts get in the way... you should know by now that the expert posters on JT would disagree...

  • -2

    Get Real

    tokyo-star,

    "more casualties from nuclear meltdowns"

    Have there actually been any after 3.11? Didn't think so.

    What's the definition of casualty?

    Has no-one been irradiated? No abnormal tumors found? Are the homeless nuclear gypsies all healthy?

    What about the suicides?

    @Heda-Madness,

    Don't let any facts get in the way... you should know by now that the expert posters on JT would disagree...

    What are the facts?

  • 0

    Jean Val-Jean

    I believe the main point of the article is :" the Osaka panel said its projections showed that an area three times greater than the Cabinet Office estimate would be devastated by a tsunami and that liquefaction would destroy many levees, causing even more flood damage."

    It's about damage and deaths as the result of tsunami and earthquake effects.

  • -3

    Elbuda Mexicano

    These are only consertive estimates, so my guess many more will die. Fires and panics and the J goverment that could not even send helicopters up to Fukushima and let the people there go with out food and water for days on end!!!!!!

  • -2

    globalwatcher

    ......and the J. government still wants to restart nuke plants?

  • -1

    Thunderbird2

    Oh this just gets better and better... so millions will die if one rod cracks at Fukushima, and now we learn that a hundred thousand will die in an earthquake.

    How can people make such cold, hard calculations and then distribute that data to the press? It's like looking people in the eye and telling them that they will die, and there's nothing they can do about it. Rather than being doom merchants the experts and government should be taking steps to REDUCE the number of possible deaths, not just accept it.

    That kind of resignation makes me furious.

  • 3

    Heda_Madness

    These are only consertive estimates, so my guess many more will die. Fires and panics and the J goverment that could not even send helicopters up to Fukushima and let the people there go with out food and water for days on end!!!!!!

    In case you forgot there was a massive tsunami that destroyed all infrastructure in the region. Within 24 hours there were 100,000 JSDF troops on the ground and a further 100,000 on the way. The US military was also involved from day one. The Japanese government may have got a lot wrong but to say that they wilfully let people go without food and water for days on end is so grossly inaccurate that I cannot believe that anyone who was in Japan on 3/11 could even contemplate it. Please stop spreading such ridiculous inaccuracies.

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