by Eddie Landsberg

Opinions Sep. 23, 2011 - 06:52AM JST ( 16 )

TOKYO —

It is hard to believe that it’s only been five years since Junichiro Koizumi, the so-called off-beat maverick reformer with the wavy hair stepped down as prime minister.

Cleverly, as if almost in a bid to preserve his legacy, Koizumi decided not to endorse a successor, but let the dogs fight it out among themselves in a clever LDP party presidential election – and in the wake, Japan wound up with three of the first of the revolving door prime ministers.

First, there was Shinzo Abe, the first Japanese prime minister ever to have been taken down by what was rumored at the time to be chronic diarrhea; then the moderate but lackluster Yasuo Fukuda, followed by the gaffe-prone Taro Aso, the manga buff who was rumored to have problems reading kanji.

Then came the LDP’s crashing defeat in 2009 – and Japan’s second chance in over 50+ years at rule by a party other than the LDP. In 1994, at the tail end of the bubble era, Morihiro Hosokawa, an LDP renegade backed by backroom kingmaker Ichiro Ozawa, managed to seize the throne, but was quickly brought down by allegations of misuse of funds. The short-lived Tsutomu Hato, who got burned when the Japanese Socialist Party bolted from the coalition only 9 weeks into his rule, followed him. Aligning himself with the conservative LDP (in a moment of “What in God’s name was he thinking?” meets Zen), bushy eyebrowed Socialist Tomiichi Murayama came to power. But in a match cleverly doomed from the start, the LDP was back in power by January of 1996.

Hashimoto, Obuchi, Mori and then…

The brash slicked-back hair Ryutaro Hashimoto took charge and managed to stick it out for about 2 1/2 half years (pretty good for a Japanese prime minister) – but he stepped down to take responsibility when the LDP lost its majority in the upper house (the beginning of the DPJ’s gradual rise to power). Ally Keizo Obuchi then took charge, and was doing well and even respected internationally as a man of peace and economic reform, when he died in office. And that’s when the LDP had its true moment of reckoning.

Yoshiro Mori – a survivor of the Recruit scandal—would eventually win the award of Japan’s most unpopular prime minster since WWII. An avid rugby union enthusiast (now head of the Japanese Rugby Union), he simply appeared to have possibly suffered one too many concussions as well as foot in mouth ... and was ultimately brought down by single digit number popularity ratings.

This is where Koizumi saw an opportunity and seized it.

Bold Power Play

Traditionally in Japan, the guy with the largest faction gets to be prime minister – it’s that simple. But in mid-2000, the backroom big faction leaders were less popular than a fly on a watermelon. 

Koizumi had served in numerous cabinet positions over the years – but was factionally weak. However, this was clearly not going to stop him.

At the time (2004), election reforms gave local constituents direct power in electing their leaders. In addition, “soft news” was becoming popular on Japanese TV, so Koizumi’s plan was to use public appearances to win over the public and in the process, force the party’s rank and file into his palms. In this atmosphere, he created the persona of a flamboyant, reform-minded maverick with the ability to put on a show, play media outlets against themselves, and even engage in traditional “whistlestop” style politics better than any candidate before him had. (In later years, critics would both praise and accuse him of being a Svengali-like media manipulator.)

And here is where the Koizumi paradox arose: According to Hideo Otake’s “Japanese Populism” (2003), Koizumi successfully presented himself as “anti-power, anti-wealth, anti-selfish elite,” which meant that the less popular support he had within his party, the stronger he became. It was him versus a party that was losing its grip on power. Koizumi cleverly positioned himself as the alternative – and it created an atmosphere in which he was able to lead and campaign by simply appearing to break all the rules.

Under these circumstances, Koizumi managed to seize power and stay popular by running against the system.  However, it wasn’t a play that could be replicated. It was simply taking advantage of the right opportunity at the right time.

To put it bluntly, Koizumi was born for the role he decided to play, but once he stepped down, it was back to factional politics. Think about it: Which member of his own cabinet could replicate the Koizumi power play of running against his own party? To run against his own party, he’d actually have to simply join another party and run against it.

DPJ comes to power

Fast forward five years into the future. The DPJ have finally managed to seized power from the LDP with an ambitiously reformist agenda and offering a sleek colorful brand of campaigning that made the LPD look old, tarnished and out of touch. Unfortunately, no sooner than it came to power, the DPJ’s bold agenda of political reform and social transformation as written out in its manifesto began to eat at the party.

Many key promises turned out to be overambitious and politically unattainable. So weird Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, nicknamed “ET,” and his more popular Nancy Reagan/Shirley MacLainesque clairvoyant wife, wound up having to evacuate the prime minister’s residence barely a year into the job amid a gridlock, not to mention (yet another) fund misappropriation scandal. 

This led to the election of Naoto Kan, the heroic health minister who had exposed the tainted HIV blood scandal. Not long after he took over, the brawling began, but on March 11, fate saved not only him, but the party, giving it the opportunity to make concessions to the opposition, push a few bills through the Diet and ultimately throw the manifesto into the waste bin (or at least mull a rewrite.)

Kan resigns, Noda steps in

And so now it is back to politics as normal. After 450 days of the fretful, seemingly impulsive, bumbly, idealistic, communications autistic Naoto Kan, Yoshihiko Noda is in office. His failure or success will not come by running against the system or being a charismatic ideologue, but rather proving whether or not he can be an efficient reformer and administrator (as well as not get eaten alive by an “embroiled” but definitely not irrelevant Ichiro Ozawa.) The question is will he prevail, and as a matter of a private betting pool I have going on Twitter, how many days will he be able to stay in office before the next guy comes along?

Only time will tell.

Author Infomation

Eddie Landsberg

Eddie Landsberg is a writer, musician and reviewer who's lived and taught in Japan for 17 years. He presents stories and interviews on a wide range of topics related to changing Japanese society. He's recorded three internationally distributed CDs as a Hammond organist. Among his hobbies shogi, dog training and collecting R&B.

Website: http://www.facebook.com/eddie.landsberg1