by Peter Dyloco

Opinions Aug. 17, 2011 - 05:58AM JST ( 12 )

TOKYO —

Though electric cars have been around mankind since the late 19th century, the commercialization of electric cars didn’t become a reality until late last year. Hailed by the automotive industry as a new age in personal transport, electric cars are seen by an increasing number of individuals as a step towards an environmentally sustainable future.

Little wonder: emitting zero emissions and powered by nothing more than a battery and a motor the size of a watermelon, it becomes immediately obvious why people would see this as an alternative to its gas-powered brethren. The concept even has the Japanese government sold, after it declared its goal of making electric cars the choice of “half of the new passenger cars sold in Japan in 2020″ last year.

To achieve its goal of electrifying Japan’s roads within the next eight years, the Japanese government has dedicated enormous amounts of money to not only electric car subsidies, but towards the construction of the energy infrastructure electric cars will need to thrive. The folks over at Nagatacho are planning to install more than two million household chargers and five thousand fast-charge stations across the nation. This will be no small feat, and a commendable one if achieved.

There is, however, an issue that many have overlooked – one that comes in direct conflict with the anti-nuclear sentiment so prevalent among members of the Japanese public today. Where will the electricity come from?

There’s no question that the popularization of the electric car will lead Japan to increase its power generation capacity in the mid to long term future.  The Nissan Leaf, powered by a 24 kWh battery, can travel 160 kilometers on a single charge. Assuming that the Japanese government’s targets are met and based on Japan’s total new car sales in 2010, approximately 2.5 million new cars on the road in Japan will be electric.

Now it’s time to put two and two together. The average American travels 24 000 kilometers per year. For the sake of conservatism, let’s say the Japanese travel a quarter that – 6000 kilometers per annum. Divide that by the range of the Leaf (100 miles = 160 kilometers). The average driver will have to charge up 38 times throughout the course of the year (the actual number of charge times, of course, will be much greater). Multiply that by the Leaf’s battery capacity of 24 kWh, and what you end up with is 900 kWh of usage per year.

To put this in perspective, your average washing machine consumes approximately 300 kWh of electricity per annum. With the Leaf, you’re effectively running another three dishwashers at home.

But that’s not the end of the story. The Japanese government wants 2.5 million of these cars sold and on the road in 2020 (remember, this figure doesn’t include any electric cars sold before then). 2.5 million multiplied by 900 kWh equals a whopping 2 250 000 000 kWh, or 2250 gWh, increase in usage per year. That’s ten percent of what the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant used to make before it was hit by the tsunami – no small sum considering that it was one of the largest nuclear power stations in the world.

Many Japanese are looking to shift away from nuclear energy and invest in greener, safer alternative energy sources. But is it really a practical option – if one at all – for Japan? With all 54 nuclear reactors out of service, Japan could see a twenty percent spike in the cost of electricity and be hindered by a production capacity that meets only 90 percent of what it actually needs. And Japan wants to add 2250 gWh of electricity demand to its grid, if not more, in the next eight years?

Nuclear energy will be the only way Japan can meet its demand in such a short time frame. Research into alternative energies is always encouraged, but it’s practically impossible to develop and implement energy infrastructure capable of replacing nuclear energy’s production power in such a short span of time. Its goal to electrify the average Japanese car in eight years will not help one bit.

This is why nuclear energy is here to stay for another 10 years, if not more. A nuclear-free Japan will remain nothing but a pipe dream much into the conceivable future.

Author Infomation

Peter Dyloco

My name is Peter Dyloco. I hope to bring a fresh perspective to the issues that face Japan. I enjoy learning new languages and study them during my spare time. I’m able to speak English, Japanese, Taiwanese Hokkien, Mandarin, Cantonese, Tagalog and French to various levels of proficiency. I was born and raised in Hong Kong.

Website: http://www.facebook.com/hkborntokyoinspired