Days before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's slaughter of Japan's opposition, the writing was already on the wall for the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and its lackluster leader Banri Kaieda, who has announced he is resigning after losing his seat. There was desperation in Kaieda's voice midweek as he attempted to win back his traditional supporters in his Tokyo constituency. Few, though, bothered to wave as his sound truck made a last forlorn tour of what was once his territory.
Kaieda's own troubles typify the malaise of Japan's opposition and inevitably leave observers wondering if anything can be done to slow the conservatives' determination to remake the nation. By gaining his super-majority with the support of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's junior coalition partner, Komeito, Abe confirmed that he is set to remain the master of Japanese politics for years to come. Not since the premierships of Yasuhiro Nakasone and Junichiro Koizumi have the conservatives enjoyed the prospect of such a lengthy era in power under a confident leader.
The scale of Abe's victory ensures that his strongest supporters will urge him to seize the moment and press ahead with constitutional, security and nationalistic measures. No doubt others within the LDP will advise at least a degree of caution and make haste slowly. Yet their argument that the public at large still has major reservations over changing the occupation-era's constitution and distrust extending the role of Japan's military may get short shrift in the face of Sunday's electoral arithmetic.
Victories on this scale can hardly be explained away simply by noting the inadequacies of the opposition or the determination of many to stay at home as a form of protest: Abe must be doing something right. All the references to "Abenomics" in the media are a constant reminder of Abe's personal role in at least facing up to Japan's economic problems. Of course, his policies here over the past two years have hardly been a ringing success but no one doubts that he has attempted to innovate. Abe did not devise the ideas behind the "three arrows" program - initial credit for this lies abroad with a Professor Hamada of Yale - but he is not about to throw in the towel and walk away. The prime minister's astute opening campaign question over whether the other political parties in Japan could come up with alternative economic policies remains unanswered. The patient electorate is clearly willing to give Abe more time to see if he really can deliver the goods.
Abe also has to confront international realities that could yet wreck Sunday's electoral triumph. Bets on the Japanese recovery are contingent both on the improving state of the global economy and trust that Japan's major trading partners do not start a run of competitive devaluations to match the extraordinary and continuing downward shift in the value of the yen. Talk of the yen dropping to 130 to the dollar might trigger a double whammy of currency wars and add still more to the bill for fuel and raw materials imports that in turn would be passed on to consumers and thereby further stall an already hesitant domestic scene.
Much of the rest of the world may well reckon that Japan is a "has been" nation still suffering from its lost decades but it is far too soon to think of writing Japan off. By many comparative standards, its strengths remain impressive. Abe heads a stable parliamentary democracy and the world's third largest economy. It is premature to talk of the 21st century as already in China's pocket just as Abe's many critics abroad might look in the mirror and ask how well the European Union has been performing or why the United States' job recovery has stalled. For the moment, Abe is entitled to celebrate - he can be expected to push ahead with his domestic agenda, while crossing his fingers that international trade prospers and that Sino-Japanese relations continue their recent thaw.
© Japan Today
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kyushubill
When you have to shove patriotism down your citizens' throats through a bulllied and weak media and schools then the game is already over.