by Peter Dyloco

Opinions Aug. 10, 2011 - 07:00AM JST ( 8 )

TOKYO —

Politics is a sticky business. Without question, the majority of those in the political sphere try to stay in power through support of populist policies. Popular movements, however, are not always right, and the fickle nature of public opinion can easily turn 180 degrees and end a politician’s career prematurely.

A politician, however, must be careful not to alienate his voters else risk political suicide. In times of peace and relative prosperity, constituents want stability above all else. Changing the status quo when one’s level of comfort is high is something that voters want politicians to avoid at all costs (unless changing the status quo leads to an improvement in their current standard of living). Cut the standard of living and you have riots similar to those currently being experienced in Greece and in places where austerity measures have been put into place.

It isn’t easy being a politician. You have to walk a fine balance between doing what the people want and doing what would be in the best interests of the country. Many times, both are not one and the same. Steer too much in the direction of the voters, and you get blasted for being a spineless populist. Veer in the other direction and you won’t be seeing a second term.

What Japan needs right now is a tightrope walker. What Japan needs is an individual capable of achieving both.

It’s obvious, for instance, that Naoto Kan is no longer up to the task of being an effective prime minister. Besides bumbling much of his term since Yukio Hatoyama resigned, Kan has managed to turn the whole Japanese Diet against him and attain an approval rating lower than any prime minister in recent history. The fact that he backed many populist movements, such as the wave of anti-nuclear sentiment currently in Japan right now, has not helped his popularity one bit. Without the support of the public nor of the political class, it’s obvious that Kan cannot get anything done with his hands tied behind his back.

The reality of Japan’s situation, however, is this: Japan cannot afford not to get anything done. With every passing day, the ranks of elderly Japanese grow. The workforce is shrinking. Tax revenues are shrinking. Productivity is declining. Savings rates have plunged. The budget deficit is growing. The debt to GDP ratio is rising. The cost of social services is increasing. Jobs are being outsourced to developing countries. As most of Japan’s debt is held by domestic investors, it can certainly keep up the status quo for a few years, if not longer. The problem with that is time: the bill cannot be delayed indefinitely, and Japan (like the U.S. debt crisis) will have to pay up eventually.

But the longer Japan waits, the more it can’t afford to pay the bills. What may ultimately result is default. At that point, all living standards will experience a precipitous decline. Japan will have hit a brick wall.

At the rate things are headed right now, this is the most likely option. It isn’t, however, the only one. As exercised twice before in its long and rich history, Japan is capable of massive structural reform. In the same manner in which it turned itself around post-WWII, Japan is certainly able to revive itself from its coma. That much has been clear to historians and observers alike for quite some time.

What isn’t so clear, however, is how Japan will be able to do it. It’s easy to say that a country needs political change. It becomes difficult when you start to boil down to the specifics. How should Japan change, and what can it do to get itself back on track, in a world where everyone but China seems to be going down the wrong path?

This is why Japan needs effective political leadership. A leader who is able to convince his society that difficult, but necessary measures will have to be taken to ensure the continuing prosperity of the nation. A leader who is able to compromise with Japan’s many vested interests, and deal with a bureaucracy that seems to function independent of government. A leader who is capable of rallying Japan together in support of a common cause.

Such a leader is easier described than come by. As Garrett Hardin so fittingly put it in his article “The Tragedy of the Commons,” individuals looking after their own interests will ultimately lead to their collective downfall. Social security will have to be cut, but the growing political clout of the elderly will prevent such changes from ever happening. Free trade agreements will have to be signed, but farmers and others affected will try their best to block the FTAs from ever reaching their full economic potential.

And that’s where we have the political conundrum. Who’s capable of being in charge? How is he going to achieve political unity? Is it possible to change up the status quo in order to maintain the status quo? These are questions that no one, not even the most experienced of political analysts, have answers to yet. Perhaps that is the biggest issue that Japan faces now.

Author Infomation

Peter Dyloco

My name is Peter Dyloco. I hope to bring a fresh perspective to the issues that face Japan. I enjoy learning new languages and study them during my spare time. I’m able to speak English, Japanese, Taiwanese Hokkien, Mandarin, Cantonese, Tagalog and French to various levels of proficiency. I was born and raised in Hong Kong.

Website: http://www.facebook.com/hkborntokyoinspired