N Korea fires 2 short-range missiles into Sea of Japan

Tuesday 26th May, 03:25 PM JST

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pathat at 03:16 AM JST - 27th May

smitty: But if we deem it necessary to take a much more aggressive stance-including the use of military force to topple the fruitcake with the bad haircut and his military leaders-how do we get Russia and China to work with us to bring about the change? And how do we agree on the extent of the change that is necessary in the first place?

The U.S. is immersed in two wars in the ME that have no end in sight that have been bankrupting the country for 8 years now. What kind of force could the U.S. bring to bear on the North Koreans? And would the Russian Bear want us there? And we already know from history China's response to U.S. forces edging up to the Yalu River in a time of war. The Chinese wouldn't want us there in 2010 any more than they wanted us there in 1950.

I hate to say this, but I don't see a reasonable military solution on the table, unless the North Koreans do something with a missile strike in Japan that allows us to retaliate with the destruction of their country.

Some who might say a preemptive strike on North Korea would be the best way to go are undoubtedly some of the same who trashed the Bush/Cheney administration for its use in the ME. I've always trashed those warmongers for their unnecessary war in Iraq, but maybe when the shoe is on the other foot in E. Asia....

For those who say North Korea's top people are getting ready to throw their cards on the table and welcome a final confrontation, I'd say you're daft. They don't want to die; they simply want more of what can make life grand and comfortable for them.

I call their bluff and counsel patience and negotiation.
bdiego at 04:17 AM JST - 27th May

This is really no different than a hostage standoff where the hostage taker is brandishing and even firing weapons but doesn't have the guts to start a real showdown. They know they can't win a conventional war, and they don't intend to. All they need to know is there is nothing anyone can do to stop them from firing off missiles and developing nukes. It's as simple as that.

North Korea would collapse over Winter without food aid from the west and energy aid from China, and they know it. China only had to turn off NK's electricity for three days to get them to capitulate during a previous standoff. Three days. NK currently produces between 4-5 million tons of food, which is several million short. It varies drastically year to year but food aid has fed a quarter of NK's people. Most NGOs have left, making the UN their main supplier. The key fact here is NK believes it will continue to receive aid anyways, whether or not they in reality will.

In any case, NK neither intends nor is able of invading, both for supply reasons and the repercussions. More importantly, they don't have to. As the DMZ is only an hour from Seoul, they can level South Korea's capital city to nothing by artillery fire without budging an inch. That's half the population of South Korea without setting a single foot into SK. Nukes are very similar - no need for an actual ground invasion. In contrast, actually invading would require supplies and a supply line. As they lack supplies and would immediately have their supply lines interdicted by air every single soldier who crosses the DMZ is doomed. The North Koreans are not that stupid.

When a child throws a temper tantrum, they know they're going to get away with it and they're right. The only question is what you do in response. This is actually a child's test of their own power and yours, and for a child not to do this would be an alarming sign. It's one of the key essences of being human.
bdiego at 04:27 AM JST - 27th May

It's worth noting that a nuclear attack or mass artillery bombardment of a civilian capital like Seoul - with over 20 million people in its metro region - would probably be met by a nuclear counterattack. That's why this is the last thing the NKs plan to do, unless they feel trapped with no escape. To the contrary, Kim Il Jung is cavorting in his palaces with whores and drunk with power and Hennessy as we speak.

This is just a diplomacy game, and as the past has shown, NK has repeatedly profited from threats. They go to extremes, and in return for backing up halfway they get concessions and aid.

It's worth noting that all the combined sanctions have a far smaller economic impact than the aid we're giving them. No one disputes that NK would collapse without aid. Yet NK actually calls the aid reparations, as ironically almost all the food aid comes from their enemies.
OssanAmerica at 08:07 AM JST - 27th May

Sorry, but no one in Asia will be shaking in their boots if Japan throws >out article 9, or even goes nuclear. The world has changed too much >since 1945, and Japan's neighbors have become a bit too well armed.

The only neighbor that Japan has to really worry about is NKorea. Don't kid yourself, if Japan actually had an offense capable military and a willingness to conduct pre-emptive attacks, NKorea's behavior would change. It's that simple.

Besides, do you see North Korea shaking in her boots at the idea of the >United States, with thousands of nuclear munitions, aimed, cocked and >locked, ready to eliminate the land of Kim Jon IL in a mere 3 minutes?

Yes they are afraid of the United States. Do you think for a moment that NKorea wold ever shoot a missle over US territory? Of course they won't, even if they could. They do this repeatedly over Japan because they know Japan is constitutionally constrained from responding like a "normal" country. Put another way, it's the schoolyard bully picking on the handicapped kid.
Himajin at 08:30 AM JST - 27th May

CNN just reported that they fired another one this morning.
Noliving at 09:26 AM JST - 27th May

biglittleman: No not really, Israel pretty much acuired their nuclear program from France, not the US. The US "believes" Israel has nuclear weapons and has told them to not do any public nuclear testing.
nandakandamanda at 11:25 AM JST - 27th May

NK knows they will get at least 70 comments on JT and maybe more!
biglittleman at 01:24 PM JST - 27th May

Noliving,

I wasn't sure if it was direct relation but the technology came either thru Russia or US. Every country that has nuclear capability originates from one of these two countries.
Hotbox08 at 08:52 PM JST - 27th May

hotbox.... check and see how many japanese "rockets" have ended up at the bottom of the sea.

Thanks for your question, bakabaka. I was curious about that as well. As such, Japan has launched several rockets into space. The last launching being the GOSAT satellite launch at the end of FY 2008. The next scheduled launch will be in 2012. As such the frequency of launches do not match that of countries such as the U.S. where space programs tend to be more developed.

As for those falling into the ocean, I was interested in looking into the success-failure rate of Japan's space program. I was surprised to find out that Japan has had a very high success rate (which means the rocket fully reached space and with only the booster rockets falling into the sea to be picked up by booster rocket retrieval teams). In fact, Japan has had an 18 year (1977-1994) of successful consecutive space launches. Since then and up until now, there has been 8 failures, with the 2003 H2-A failure being the most recent. This lone failure as most people will remember was one which shot the confidence of NASDA and the H2-A rocket program.

Of course, not all of those failures landed in the ocean, and if you count even those 8, they still are far less than the amount of rockets that have failed and consequently ended up at the bottom of the ocean, from North Korea. It seems that North Korea has a penchant for rocket "failure". True, one should not use number as an argument, since having one, two, three, etc. more than another nation in the ocean does not excuse oneself from the impact this would have on the environment. However, I feel the mindset that North Korea has in launching missiles (which by the way is far different from a "rocket") with no intended purpose but to further drive North Koreans into more hunger and poverty is appalling. No other country's space program (America's, Japan's, India's, China's, etc.) does that.

Then again, if you mean "rockets" as in those fireworks you can buy at any convenience store during the summer months, and which are often played by delinquent young Japanese at the beach, then you may have a point.
mushroomcloud at 12:10 AM JST - 28th May

The only neighbor that Japan has to really worry about is NKorea. Don't kid yourself, if Japan actually had an offense capable military and a willingness to conduct pre-emptive attacks, NKorea's behavior would change. It's that simple.

That hasn't stopped North Korea from modifying their behavior against South Korea, a nation that has an offensive military capability, a willingness to conduct pre-emptive strikes, and is backed by a nuclear armed super power.

My point being, when you are dealing with a complete nut case leader with a starving, brain washed population, all reason goes out the window.
OssanAmerica at 01:02 AM JST - 28th May

My point being, when you are dealing with a complete nut case leader >with a starving, brain washed population, all reason goes out the window.

If my pet dog became like that I'd shoot it. Perhaps we really need to think about pre-emptive strikes.
mushroomcloud at 02:41 AM JST - 28th May

'If my pet dog became like that I'd shoot it. Perhaps we really need to think about pre-emptive strikes.'

Even China must be tired of Kim Jong ILL's antics. For as much as NK acts as a buffer state, as long as she continues to lob around nukes, the party is over.

China should just invade NK and pacify the country to prevent it from doing something really stupid.
Shiningfinger at 09:37 AM JST - 28th May

"There is no way a conventional war could be fought & won against NK, the people have had 60 years of indoctrination & in all that time any suffering they have experienced has been blamed on the US & its allies. Also China has a treaty to support NK should it be attacked. So, behind all this NK feels safe to behave the way it has been doing."

Grafton has a good point. N.korea has a stronger sense of support from China than S.Korea has with the U.S. I don't know if anyone knows but the U.S. is currently on a timetable to withdraw its ground forces (about 30,000 troops) within the next 12-18months a complete withdrawal by 2011. I think North Korea also knows this. Just yesterday North Korea publicly stated that the 56yr armistice is invalid and technically they can attack at any moment without provocation. The U.S. has not responded with any real military assurances that they will maintain or even increase their military presence in the South.

If anyone thinks that there will be some peaceful re-unification of the koreas they are mistaken. That chance died with the former pres. who committed suicide recently. I would imagine that sometime shortly after U.S. troops withdraw the north would find some excuse to start a military confrontation with the South like during the naval confrontations in 99' and 01' The U.S. has no signed agreements to protect S.Korea and no defense pacts that they would be held to if the South is attacked.
amerijap at 09:00 AM JST - 31st May

NK has been in a hallucination for 50+ years after the Korean War. They've been haunted by the phantom of a defunct Communist regime since Kim Jeong Il's late father led NK to the isolation from an international community. So far, what NK has shown to all of us in the public media is the unwillingness to get along with the international community, and an excessively hostile attitude toward any democratic nations due to their emotional support to South Korea. The possibility that NK buries the hatchet with its neighbors is very slim, due to their blindness to a social-political transformation of international community after the Cold War.
Raymasaki at 12:39 PM JST - 31st May

North korea has been playing this game for years. Japan is NOT afaid of NK, USA & many other Nations will defend south if north korea does something stupid. IF china was smart it would Help & could easly gaurd its borders. Once korea is Reunified Peacfully there will be NO reason for northkoreans to go to china. China will Not help if NK starts a War.(so they say) in a conventional war US & SK would Destroy NK. but NO one wants war so the country remains devided & North koreans starve. Kim jong il knows it would be the END for him and we can't just go charging in either. The ONLY way will be when kimjongil DIES! and the next president/Dictator says Forget this we need a change. most likely they will continue the communist way.