Japan heads for third quarter rebound but pressure on BOJ, Abe may build

Economists expect annualised growth of about 4% for the three months to September

that is to say jump of 2.7% from previous quarter? too much, economists need to be more realistic if not honest.

If the past is anything to go on, there will be a small jump up in Q3 , then recession.

To have a more realistic and honest view use a search engine to find a story on "Japan GDP growth collapses amid sales tax shock."

some14some,

that is to say jump of 2.7% from previous quarter? too much, economists need to be more realistic if not honest.

Well the 2nd quarter was special since lots of consumption was sucked into the 1st quarter, but this effect will have dissapated to a greater extent in the 3rd quarter.

I don't find estimates of 1% growth for the 3rd the quarter so unrealistic, as it seems plausible that there will be more consumption in the 3rd quarter, given the negative distortion in the 2nd quarter.

The year-over-year growth figure is probably the one to look at in these circumstances

BoJ will print, tax rises will be delayed, Japan remains on a knife edge.

Japan's foremost trump card over the near term will be the reallocation of Government Pension Investment Fund money from JGBs to foreign/Japanese equities. As I understand it, the GPIF will announce the new fund allocation plan for January sometime in or after September, and other smaller pension funds will likely follow suit.

Large sums of pension fund yen will be converted to dollars which will weaken the yen and drive up profits for Japanese exporters. This will buoy the Nikkei, and hopefully drive some economic growth.