Japan likely to increase defense spending due to territorial disputes

Politics Jan. 06, 2013 - 06:50AM JST ( 39 )

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39 Comments

-2

Seiryuu_DanJan. 06, 2013 - 08:26AM JST

In regards to China, your military strength, along with your economic strength, is your voice. The stronger you are, the louder your voice and more likely China will listen.
Due to China strengths, it has made aggressive incurisions into the disputed territories it claims in South China Sea. China try to ignore and steps over the rights of ASEAN nations that disputed it's claims.
China is doing the same the Senkaku Islands, but Japan voice is heard all around the world. Building up it's military, or defensive, strength show it means business.
China is the bully, it ignores those who it deem weaker. Build up your strength, and stand up to the bully.
-7

spudmanreincarnatedJan. 06, 2013 - 09:15AM JST

Dear Japanese leaders, words have consequences. Pull your heads in and use back channels to get along with your neighbors. Idiots in charge of a bunch of voiceless muppets.
-12

BertieWoosterJan. 06, 2013 - 09:21AM JST

The "territorial disputes" are problems caused by Japan.

It seems that South Korea has more claim on Takeshima (Dokdo) than Japan and the infamous Senkakus are Chinese more than Japanese. I suppose the people who could claim prior ownership on the four Northern Islands above Hokkaido are the Ainu, but since the mainland Japanese killed them off, and Russia has been occupying them for the last 70 years, they have more claim.

So, who is causing this fuss over a handful of rocks and some islands in the North where winter lasts nine months in the year?

Abe, the Japanese Empire is dead.

Building up arms is completely unnecessary.

There is no country in the area that would benefit by attacking Japan.

What would they gain?

A few overcrowded cities made of flimsy concrete and a dodgy economy.

Let them have their islands and maybe then they will trust you more.
2

zenkanJan. 06, 2013 - 10:07AM JST

Trumpeting increases in defence spending smacks of tit-for-tat politics - hardly a shining example of protocol.
2

hkitagawaJan. 06, 2013 - 10:23AM JST

Better to spend in militaries than be the next Tibet.
3

hkitagawaJan. 06, 2013 - 10:32AM JST

Also, better for Japan to help usa economy to recover. China will be a global problem in the future.
-2

hkitagawaJan. 06, 2013 - 10:43AM JST

It is a fight for freedom for a better world and future. Imperialism is dead.
7

Kazuaki ShimazakiJan. 06, 2013 - 10:49AM JST

@BertieWooster I am of the opinion that under international law as established, Japan's claim to both Senkakus and Takeshima is perfectly valid. And that it is really the Chinese and Koreans that are the troublemakers on this issue. Nevertheless, I'll almost agree with

Let them have their islands and maybe then they will trust you more.

In fact, I think Japan should give up its claim to those little islands north of Hokkaido for that reason. After all, a real (as opposed to 2 man + 40 police) population lives on them.

Except that China also wants Okinawa and Korea also wants Tsushima. This kind of tells you what is really going on in their black hearts, and if only to distract their greedy eyes Japan has to keep resisting on Senkaku and Takeshima.
-1

marcelitoJan. 06, 2013 - 11:05AM JST

Sure , because J- government has so much spare cash and its debt is not enough - lets increase military spending instead of trying to be more diplomatic. But when it comes to money for things like the free medical care for Fukushima kids till 18 and other worthwhile causes the govt. and bureaucrats cry poor and say they don,t have the dough. Nice to see the new LDP priorities coming out - more money for military, public works white elephants , new nuclear plants...guess J public gets what it voted for in the elections.
-10

KabukiloverJan. 06, 2013 - 11:06AM JST

This is not defense. This is pork. And military adventurism. Someone is going to get richer from a fatter military budget, not us ordinary taxpayers. This is going to scare China and the rest the Asia but not in the way Abe and his gang of LDP rightist think. Asia will fear the rise of a militarized Japan and the chances of accidental war will be increased. It will do nothing with regard to any territorial issues. The nations involved will make noises probably for centuries to come but in the end the finders keeps, losers weepers rule with prevail.
-9

smithinjapanJan. 06, 2013 - 11:31AM JST

"Abe has repeatedly said there is no room for negotiation on the islands and has said he would boost defense spending to counter China’s growing military clout."

Isn't this the guy who just sent an envoy to try and make peace? Oh yeah, and the same guy who also wants to retract an apology for harm done to Japan's neighbours.

Kazuaki: "This kind of tells you what is really going on in their black hearts..."

'Their black hearts'? Really? No bias or hatred there, I guess. Dokdo are Korean, and have been for a long time. Japan's claims for the Senkaku islands are part of the reason the other islands Japan disputes belong to its neighbours. You can't place emphasis on the fact you administer islands as the reason you own them then say despite others administering other islands you still own them. I'd say Japan's claim to the Senkakus is relatively valid. Its claims to the other islands are not in the least.
10

Graham DeShazoJan. 06, 2013 - 12:14PM JST

Of course defense spending has to go up. It is the right (and responsibility) of the govt. to present a credible defense. Japan has let its previously 1st-rate equipment slip to second-tier status through a lack of steady incremental investment. Spending in order of priority should be: 1) Upgrade the ASDF to have a significant number (e.g. greater than the 4 to 6 under consideration) of 5th generation fighters. The F-15 will end it's period of dominance in the next 10-15 years and a replacement needs to be found now. 2) Increase the number of submarines in the MSDF. These are of high-quality, but Japan needs more of them to contend with the increases in the Chinese fleet. Incidentally, I do not think that a large aircraft carrier is worth the money as it requires a very large number of support ships and makes an inviting target. The area of coverage just does not make it worth the money. 3) Transform the GSDF from a Hokkaido focused, heavy mechanized force to a more mobile (though probably less heavily armored) force capable of amphibious operations. Let's face it, the Red Army is not going to invade Hokkaido. Any use of ground forces is going to be in the outlying islands to the south. Japan needs the ability to have a credible projection of power to anywhere in its territory.

This will take money, political will, and a steely-eyed recognition that China is a growing threat that must be faced. Unfortunately, we cannot all hold hands, smoke some weed, and sing Kumbaya (although that would be more fun and much less costly.)
3

House AtreidesJan. 06, 2013 - 12:23PM JST

No doubt the Philippines and Vietnam will be increasing their defense budgets as well.
1

BertieWoosterJan. 06, 2013 - 12:25PM JST

Kazuaki-san,

China also wants Okinawa

Why do you say that?

What has China done or said to imply that it wants Okinawa?
-6

BertieWoosterJan. 06, 2013 - 12:31PM JST

Graham,

Let's face it, the Red Army is not going to invade Hokkaido.

Exactly.

And the only reason anyone would have for invading Okinawa would be to take out the US bases.

There's nothing else here for them.

They're not going to get rich on goya and shimarakkyo!

And in any case, China isn't going to invade Okinawa. And for North Korea to get here, they'd have to go by buses, ferries and trains.

There is no need for Japan to increase defence spending.

Except, of course to bolster the failing US economy!

But Japan's in a worse debt mess than the States, so that is not a big possibility.
9

House AtreidesJan. 06, 2013 - 12:54PM JST

Let them have their islands and maybe then they will trust you more.

The lesson from WWII is that appeasement doesn't work. The Chinese have already taken Tibet and East Turkestan. The only reason why China isn't occupying the northern part of Vietnam is that the Vietnamese fought back and kicked the Chinese out. If the Chinese were to occupy the Senkaku islands, they would have no qualms about putting an airfield on Uotsuri-jima. The next thing you know, you'll have fifth generation Chinese fighter aircraft menacing Okinawa and Taiwan from the Senkaku islands.

Back in the 1950s the Chinese referred to the Senkaku islands as the Sento islets. Here's an excerpt from a Chinese government document in 1950.

The Ryukyus "consist of three parts--northern, central, and southern. The central part comprises the Okinawa islands, whereas the southern part comprises the Miyako islands and the Yaeyama islands (Sento islets)."

The document included the Sento islets as part of the Yaeyama islands in parentheses. The Chinese have no valid claim to the Senkaku islands. But that won't stop them from trying to take the Senkaku (Sento) islands. Hence, the need for an increase in Japan's military budget.
-4

Nhan ThaiJan. 06, 2013 - 01:06PM JST

i love Mr Abe , because he is as strong as Japan before , he make it clear , to make the right decision that is the best to confront the bullshit bullish china , could i spit on china face , please ? LOL
1

NolivingJan. 06, 2013 - 01:46PM JST

And the only reason anyone would have for invading Okinawa would be to take out the US bases.

Or to have an unsinkable aircraft carrier in which you can control the sea trade lanes that run by it.
6

kimuzukashiiiiiJan. 06, 2013 - 02:34PM JST

To be honest, even if this is only a defensive measure and clause 9 is never removed, I think its an excellent idea. And very necessary.

China are, at best, temperamental. They are slowly edging their way further and further towards the senkakus, and are waiting for a chance to attack Japan for a small Japanese mistake.

I hope I am very wrong, but in this situation, I think it is best that Japan is over prepared, and expecting the worst from China. If China attacks and Japan has the defense measures currently in place, they would be done for.
5

Kazuaki ShimazakiJan. 06, 2013 - 03:41PM JST

What has China done or said to imply that it wants Okinawa?

OK, something quick off the stove: jsw.newpacificinstitute.org/?p=3020 jsw.newpacificinstitute.org/?p=10398 (the former may still be the yawnings of random professors if you are gullible, but now generals are clearly getting into the act)

Really, if you hadn't noticed these preliminary movements, you hadn't done enough research on these issues.

Yes, it is at a slow burn right now in what may be called "nationalist" sources, but I have a long enough memory to remember back when the Senkakus was a back corner issue, and have done enough research to back to when it WASN'T an issue.

China is slowly increasing the agitation so to the average layman, without time or interest to do real research and with a short memory, won't notice what is really happening. It won't happen now or even in the next five years, but say in 2050 or so they will start making moves similar to the games they are playing with the Senkakus now. The timeframe accelerates if the Senkakus go out of the way.

It is nice to be a dictatorship sometimes - makes it easy to do these long term moves. You just can't do them in a democracy.
4

Kazuaki ShimazakiJan. 06, 2013 - 03:52PM JST

'Their black hearts'? Really? No bias or hatred there, I guess.

Under modern ethics, if you start craving something behind the disputed zone, I think we can call it "black".

Dokdo are Korean, and have been for a long time.

Not being a full time expert on the issue, I'll just tell you two reasons that killed Korea's claim for me:

1) Despite considerable efforts to dredge up every demi-usable piece of text (with a heavy dependence on finding possible flaws in Japanese as opposed to using Korean documents), their utter inability to produce a map.

I've on the side challenged pro-Dokdo people like Bevers who are clearly more interested than I am. Instead of even trying to whack me with a scanned Korean map, he mumbles something along the lines of needing to consider all the evidence (I think I am not harsh in interpreting this to mean he does not know of a usable Korean map).

2) The fact that shortly before the peace treaty, they snuck up on the islands and took them. Kind of like they KNEW for sure how the world would rule (and remember how popular Japan was in that time period...) so they went for a fait accompli.

Yes, if this ever goes to trial, the court may well give the islands to Korea on Prescription, but that's not the same thing.
3

MiuraAnjinJan. 06, 2013 - 03:54PM JST

There is one big reason why China will not piss off the USA.

An embargo.

Chinese goods would be banned from the USA, and would no longer be able to pass through the Suez or Panama canals. And so long as the USA has airfields in Okinawa, they would find it very hard to trade with anyone else either. Now, as written above, if they had an airfield a short hop from Okinawa, that would alter the balance of power considerably.

In short, the US will not allow the Senkakus to come under Chinese control. Perhaps Japan is about to get a good deal on a few (dozen?) Raptors? There must be some reason why "pacifist" Japan chose the offense-focused F22 weapons platform over the far more reasonable defensive Eurofighter...
0

AthletesJan. 06, 2013 - 03:56PM JST

Many posters have not realized that PRC and NK have already attacked many propaganda of J government. It was a propaganda cyber warfare. Not only J government web sites but also US government websites. It is more effective than old fashioned physical warfare. The world is not in 1990s anymore.

Beside that Japan debt has already 210% of GDP. If Japan have to spend like Abe said, debt will become 1000% of GDP. No nation in the history has owed debt so much. The only answer for settling that Mount Everest debt is a default. Japan will become another Greece. Unlike Greece, Japan is not a EU member for foreign bail out.

I agree with BertieWooster that Modern warfare does not need to spend the fortune for military hardware. When NK flied their rocket over Okinawa, ground force watched the sky as "Star Trek into darkness" trailer.

Spending for computer Viruses is more effective than buying unreliable hardware and expanding Arm force.
4

Shumatsu_SamuraiJan. 06, 2013 - 07:46PM JST

On the subject of defence spending, a 2% increase on a budget that is around 1% of GDP is very small. Japan has the lowest defence spending in Asia as a percentage of GDP. A slow increase is not provocative, nor is it fiscally unwise - the increase in yen terms will be minimal compared to spending in other areas, such as social security. There's plenty of scope to increase the defence budget gradually.

The only answer for settling that Mount Everest debt is a default. Japan will become another Greece.

Wrong, Japan will not necessarily become another Greece. The vast majority of its debt (over 90%) is currently held by Japanese citizens. Those savers will have no choice but to accept a write-down on their debt. And if Japan did default on its debt, it would save a vast amount of money that it has to pay every year in interest repayments.

Greece also has a big problem because it is part of the euro and cannot print money or devalue its currency - Japan can.
-4

SerranoJan. 06, 2013 - 08:14PM JST

The government could save a ton of money if they gave up all these silly territorial claims.
-1

oberstJan. 06, 2013 - 09:16PM JST

Be sure to buy only American, save us money to re-train using foreign made ones.
-1

kazetsukaiJan. 06, 2013 - 10:54PM JST

I'm glad that this discussion has been rather rational and with limited sarcasm, something which has dominated this topic in 2012. Let's all try to keep it that way. Thank you everyone.

The article by Reuters is much more pragmatic and to the point than many others posted here regarding the issues. Like wise your responses have been quite relative and productive. Hopefully some government officials are also thinking along similar lines and evaluating your thoughts as well.

As long as there are nation states and there are governments, it is definitely its responsibility to　maintain "sufficient" military capability to fend off any intrusions or attack on the capability of its people to survive. Finally, Japan has started to discard its "idealized" and totally meaningless security concepts in this still uncivilized world. It is only 250 years or so since the sword carrying samurai society and only 70 years from WWII.

Japan and the Japanese people may have changed rather quickly and adjusted to internationalism and the current technological world, but many nations still have not or are unable to. For those with large populations dominated by selfish and powerful people or governments and even idealism, change may not be as quick. Therefore, ALL people must be on guard. The Romans learned the same after hundreds of years of dominance.

Unlike the USA, Japan has a rather compact and unified physical country with differing but similar minded population. Something which makes Japan not only unique but also powerful. As long as the younger generation here can "wakeup" from their idealistic dream centered concept of life which the last 2 generations have created, Japan still have a chance for survival.

As for the USA, as long as the current extremely liberal educational system and concepts exist, and the divided general population not only culturally but racially with multiple idealisms with radically differing living standards rely on "legality" and "social equality", and not on basic human values and principles, a major change will most probably occur . In that process, Japan will be exposed to "dangers" which even if USA wanted to help, would not be able to. Such is the situation in the Middle East. So therefore, it is imperative that our host country, Japan, do move toward self-preservation and military strength.
-2

avigatorJan. 06, 2013 - 11:22PM JST

Spend money until you go broke like the Soviets did during Reagan days.
-1

BertieWoosterJan. 06, 2013 - 11:42PM JST

Kazuaki-san,

but now generals are clearly getting into the act

I don't know about generals in the plural, the article mentioned ONE general and a retired government official.

I don't think it's anything to worry about.

There are three excellent articles that I can recommend on the subject:

http://www.japanfocus.org/-Erik-Esselstrom/3869

http://www.japanfocus.org/-Gavan-McCormack/3873

http://www.japanfocus.org/-Fang-Ming/3877
-1

BertieWoosterJan. 06, 2013 - 11:42PM JST

avigator-san,

Spend money until you go broke like the Soviets did during Reagan days.

I think that's the general idea!
-1

BertieWoosterJan. 06, 2013 - 11:48PM JST

Serrano-san,

The government could save a ton of money if they gave up all these silly territorial claims.

Exactly, there's so much more in the world that needs attention.

This is how much the U.S.A. is spending on wars currently:

http://costofwar.com

Just THINK what you could do with that!

FInd a new energy source that would supply the earth's energy needs and wouldn't need wars to get it.

Solve major medical problems like cancer.

Create a real Utopia.

But no, it's better to beat the s**t out of people.
0

Isaganilla GellaJan. 07, 2013 - 12:42AM JST

that's a fruit of china bullys and greediness'' Asean will continue build-up military credible defense to protect territorial soveriegnity and japan moves at the right track and PHilippines will support Japan policy''
-1

AthletesJan. 07, 2013 - 08:06AM JST

Wrong, Japan will not necessarily become another Greece. The vast majority of its debt (over 90%) is currently held by Japanese citizens. Those savers will have no choice but to accept a write-down on their debt. And if Japan did default on its debt, it would save a vast amount of money that it has to pay every year in interest repayments.

It is not entirely true. J residents park their money in J bonds not as patriotic dut for supporting the defense budget. If they do not get their interest or J government default the debt, savers have a choice to move their saving. They can sell their bonds with losses. They can also stop buying the bonds. Default will make investor losing the confidence. Unlike US treasury, Yen is not international currency. It is not safe heaven for foreigners. US has luxury to borrow Chinese money for defense. Japan can not!

Printing money makes currency worthless. For example buying Sub Marine cost Y 400 millions. If exchange rate is falling, the real cost of Sub Marine will go up to 600 millions. Develuing currency is good for Japanese export. However it is nightmare for buying miltary hardwares because exchage rate is low. Therefore imported goods will be very expensive. In the perfect world, that theory work. Not in the real world.
0

SamuraiBlueJan. 07, 2013 - 09:11PM JST

Athletes

Your analysis is completely wrong simply because if Japan bonds defualt the Japanese savers have no savings to move at that point. That is what default means.

Another point being that Japanese bonds are held mostly by Japanese institutional investors not private investors. They have vested interest in having a strong Japanese economy so it is hard to think they will sell off Japanese bonds so easily.

This also has a plus effect in which foreign investors believe that Japanese yen is a safe heaven during when currency fluctuate that is why they invest into yen when there is a major drift within the world economy.

Sorry the Yen is a safer bet than the wuan by a country mile that is for sure.
0

petterrockJan. 08, 2013 - 04:13AM JST

Nice to see the new LDP priorities coming out - more money for military, public works white elephants , new nuclear plants...guess J public gets what it voted for in the elections. http://www.hireprofessionalseoexpert.com
0

AthletesJan. 08, 2013 - 08:55AM JST

Samuriablue

Your analysis is completely wrong simply because if Japan bonds defualt the Japanese savers have no savings to move at that point. That is what default means.

If individual savers have no more savings, not all of them can survive. Some are young. Some are old. Some are self employed. Some are not. Self funded retirees have no other source of income instead of bond interest. Your assumption is they have to stave for sake of the nation interest. Realtiy is Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain never let their citizens to stave. They will beg Germany to provide social security bail out. Japan has no Germany for safety net issue.

Another point being that Japanese bonds are held mostly by Japanese institutional investors not private investors. They have vested interest in having a strong Japanese economy so it is hard to think they will sell off Japanese bonds so easily.

Sharp is not fully owned by Japanese now. Some shares of owned by Taiwanese co-operation Hoi Hai. Lets say, Sharp is an Institutional Japanese bonds. Will Hoi Hai sacrifice for the sake of J economy? Domestic or foreign Investors concern is some form of return. Not for the national pride or pleasing the government.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48582631/TaiwanWorriedHonHaiOverPayingforSharp_Stake

This also has a plus effect in which foreign investors believe that Japanese yen is a safe heaven during when currency fluctuate that is why they invest into yen when there is a major drift within the world economy.

While Swiss and German bonds pay Zero interest rate, many Europeran investors rushed to buy that no return bonds. Why not they came and buy J bonds which is a safe heaven for their money.

Sorry the Yen is a safer bet than the wuan by a country mile that is for sure

To me, Swiss Frans and gold are safer than Yen. I will not risk my money in highly indebted nation with long recession since 1991. Japan has been almost no growth for 21 years. If the investor is 80 years old, Will they wait for Japan getting back 5% GDP and 8% interest rate?
0

SamuraiBlueJan. 08, 2013 - 12:42PM JST

Athletes

Stil don't make any sense.

The nations you had mentioned, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain, their national bonds were held mostly by international investors which left when they saw first sign of trouble. That is the reason why those nations are at the brink of default. Japan is in a much better situation since J bonds are held mostly by like I said Japanese institutional investors such like Nihon Yubin Bank. They have vested interest in seeing the Japanese economy stays afloat because most of their loans towards Japanese corporations. If Japan's economy goes down then most of their investments goes down with it.

My suggestion is to read more books on economy.

One more thing, although Swiss Franc and gold is bought Yen is also seen as a safe heaven as you can see historically foreign investors had bought yen during down fall, it is the FACT , your opinion really doesn't matter.
-1

Tiger_In_The_HermitageJan. 08, 2013 - 02:12PM JST

Spend more money on defense while the hospital system needs more funding to better serve the ill, the education of our childern needs money to improve and globalise to increase competitive edge, transport systems need to be reviewed and maintained so that the roof won't collapse onto passing vehicles, the elderly needs to be looked after, the list goes on, please wise leaders prioritise the items which are important for the people and not for the Nationalist Vote!
-1

AthletesJan. 08, 2013 - 07:01PM JST

Samuraiblue

That paragraph from your second post.

Your analysis is completely wrong simply because if Japan bonds defualt the Japanese savers have no savings to move at that point. That is what default means.

You mean savers have no more saving left. Government will default and not paying anymore interest. According your wisdom, the people will still keep buying the bonds after default. Reality is bonds will be very hard sell. It is still possible you have to pay interest rate 3 or 4 times more.

In your third post, you changed your economic thesis. Japan will not default or does not need to default. I am not sure which one is more realistic. Not all bond holders will sacrifice for nation interest as you mentioned.

You do not make sense about not all bond holders have regular income from other source. Pls research about Self funded retiree and smaller domestic investors. Do they have to starve and beg on the road? People deposit money in banks. Some government have limited guarantee for savers or depositors. For example up to 100000 or 1 million. Savers will get back some of their money even the banks got liquidation or bankruptcy. If the government got bankruptcy, they have to ask the help from world bank or IMF or Euro. If many nations have been bailout from that institution, they will run out of money too. They will ask help from high saving nations. They are Saudi, Swiss,Singapore and China.

They have vested interest in seeing the Japanese economy stays afloat because most of their loans towards Japanese corporations.

Most J co-operations are losing billions in 2012. The more loans financing to loss making co-operation such as Panasonic, it will make Japan deficit is higher. The higher the defict like US, they more they have to borrow for financing. It is a vicious cycle. In fact J Gross debt is the highest among developed nations. Reality is Panasonic or Sony will be sold to foreigners like Sharp in the future.

The nations you had mentioned, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain, their national bonds were held mostly by international investors which left when they saw first sign of trouble. That is the reason why those nations are at the brink of default.

Your theory is domestic investors will happily accept whatever outcome and they will keep buying the bonds. It is likely they may come from another planet. When they lost money, they will spread the bad rumors for revenge. They will stop investing. Potential investors will reluctant to buy. When the trust is gone, it will not come back. If I borrowed your money and not paying the interest, will you still keep borrow more money? You will pawn my assets first.

One more thing, although Swiss Franc and gold is bought Yen is also seen as a safe heaven as you can see historically foreign investors had bought yen during down fall, it is the FACT , your opinion really doesn't matter.

Your opinion does not matter too. Investors will find the safe heaven for parking of money. I have said before Swiss and German central banks offer the zero interest bond. Why did many investors rush to buy for no return bonds? They have confidence about German and Swiss banking system. They do not want to lose their money else where. Before 2008, US banks are highly reputable and US treasury is the safest heaven. However that good old days are over.