Japan's foreign policy will be at mercy of U.S., China, says U.S. intel report

Friday 21st November, 11:16 AM JST

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some14some at 01:51 PM JST - 21st November

over the next 17 years?...the world events are becoming so fragile that we need (not really) such reports every 3-5 years. However, this report seems quite interesting compared with global warming data for 2050.
whynothow at 01:52 PM JST - 21st November

TECHALL

"The 9/11 screw-up was not acting on the intelligence they had. Lack of coordination."

Glad to see we have an expert....very revealing post...its hilarious to see you analyze all this with "data" provided by state-owned medias.... They wouldnt have anyting to gain by making you believe this or that would they???? As for the think-tank issues....things are very volatile these days.... Making those claims seems pretty vain.....a tiny stone in the pond could cloud everything. as valid as my morning think-tank sessions, sitting on my white porcelain throne...pointless and not worth sharing...
Nessie at 02:46 PM JST - 21st November

The US also thought they had that capitalism system down.

The US does have the capitalist system down. They're trying to get it back online.
GW at 03:33 PM JST - 21st November

an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors

I wonder if this is refering to some conspiracy where Jpns TARENTO are actually preparing to take over the world!!!!!! Ah scary!
ptolemy at 03:43 PM JST - 21st November

Whats new about this? Japan has always been at the mercy of the USA and China since 1952. Japan is just a place that can't say no. Alot like Ado Annie in the musical "Oklahoma".
bebert at 05:08 PM JST - 21st November

So much for the neo-conservative dream of American global, "benevolent" hegemony. That pipe dream died under Bush when they bet the farm on Iraq being a cake walk and "liberal" democracy taking root in places they destabilized like Georgia, Lebanon, Gaza, Ukraine and the "Stans" (as opposed to real democracy). Now they are doomed to lose influence in East Asia, but Taiwan is certainly going to be in worse shape than Japan as this happens.

Somewhat ignored in the report is that Japan will probably need to rely more on Russia for energy as Russia further develops its energy infrastructure and the Middle East begins to get away from an increasingly weakening United States. So Russia will also gain influence.

Europe, saved for last because they are the direst case, will be a demographic basket case by 2025 with an additional generation of disgruntled, non-European youth taking to the street to vote "Osama" and rioting with increasing confidence. Western interests and universal ideals will come under threat and perhaps the only way to save even some of those values will be to jettison "one-man, one-vote" democracy. In fact, the return to authoritarian rule (perhaps with a democratic veil) will probably be the hallmark of the 21st Century.
apecNetworks at 05:10 PM JST - 21st November

NIC is stating the obvious, thus unclassified. It won't be done, but I would have every senior officer in NIC to read former Pres. Eisenhower's Farewell Address and to put that into the context of where the US is, and heading - geopolitical burnout. I am from the old school of SAC, SCAP and GHQ type analysis. I have a hard time trying to understand Agency personnel - attack is the only method.

Japan's role in the future would be best served if the UN Hdqtrs was relocated on the outskirts of either Tokyo or Osaka. Highly likely that the powers w/ keen interest in Japan will be the Russian Federation, PRC and US. Japan would best serve the region as neutral, though that would be detrimental to US strategic interests. In the last ten years, I have been shown there is no love lost in US/Japan relation.
NuckinFutz at 08:32 PM JST - 21st November

At least somebody is giving them some direction!

Japanese "intelligence collection" outside of its own borders consists of newspaper and magazine subscriptions analyzed by amateurs and interpreted by less-then-intellectual politicians. Doreamon is the closest thing this contry has to James Bond!
mushroomcloud at 03:30 AM JST - 22nd November

This article is the most accurate picture of the state of play with the challenges facing Japan. Caught between 2 powerful nations, Japan will have to continue playing fiddle to the United States, but if the US continues its current financial decline, and, if China continues it's ascendent path, or, even if China slows down and starts becoming more belligerent, in every case scenario mentioned, Japan will need to adjust it's foreign policy based on the whims of China and the US.
teaabe at 03:47 AM JST - 22nd November

china has an oppressive communist party and backward confucian idiots, and the u.s. has it's white supremacists. neither is preferable.
OssanAmerica at 04:18 AM JST - 22nd November

..but if the US continues its current financial decline, and, if China continues it's ascendent path....

China's ascendent path for the last 10 years has been tied to the US financial and economic state. Which in turn affects everywhere else. You can't have one without the other. A financial decline in the US will (and is already doing so)result in a decline in China.
mushroomcloud at 06:15 AM JST - 22nd November

...China's ascendent path for the last 10 years has been tied to the US financial and economic state. Which in turn affects everywhere else. You can't have one without the other. A financial decline in the US will (and is already doing so)result in a decline in China....

Right, which is why I stated..."or, even if China slows down and starts becoming more belligerent, in every case scenario mentioned, Japan will need to adjust it's foreign policy based on the whims of China and the US."
apecNetworks at 03:39 PM JST - 22nd November

For aspiring intelligence officers who REALLY are interested in these kinds of reports, but in the dark of the situation, they should immediately get a map of the Asia-Pacific near your PC or have it filed in the PC. After reading this NIC report, look at the map and ask, "why does the PRC and the US have such an incredible interest in Japan?". If no answer comes, read more books.
Nordon at 04:01 PM JST - 26th November

china has an oppressive communist party and backward confucian idiots, and the u.s. has it's white supremacists. neither is preferable. ~ teaabe

Funny, I thought these white supremacists just voted in their first black president.
teaabe at 02:26 PM JST - 27th November

Obama is just for show. Most in the U.S. military did not support him, and those in the south and southern midwestern states likewise. In fact, about 54% of 'whites' had voted McCain, while the military tallies came in around 75%.

the reality on the ground in the U.S. is still the same, just take a look at the cover of 'People' magazine and that says it all, everybody's well, you know what.