LDP-backed candidate wins Hokkaido by-election

In the day’s other lower house by-election in Kyoto Prefecture, Kenta Izumi of the opposition Democratic Party was tipped as the winner.

This could as well been the "main" headline! LDP doesnt field candidate because of disgrace and loses!

No mention of the voter turnout. I'm always surprised to see how many people are against the LDP, but they continue to win elections. I think many of these people who object to the government also object to voting.

Wow, phew... now I feel like dancing - my Monday will go better knowing this...sorry for the sarcasm... who cares?!

Disillusioned, last night on the news, NHK said the voter turnout in Kyoto was something like 24%! And Hokkaido wasn't much better, either high 20's, or low 30's. That is absolutely pathetic. I agree many people don't like Abe and the LDP, but if you don't then get out and vote. Sometimes I feel democracy is not completely understood here in Japan.

Just a perpetuation of the dynastic psuedo-political machine ideology that wraps much of the country.

The son in law just step into the shoes of a ready-made.

Duchamp would be impressed.

Farm & dairy subsidies/protectionism probably had more to do with the result than "national security agenda" in Hokkaido.

No mention of the voter turnout. I'm always surprised to see how many people are against the LDP, but they continue to win elections. I think many of these people who object to the government also object to voting.

That's probably EXACTLY what it is. At least we can take SOME comfort in knowing that they lost in Kyoto.

Which one of the 6 arrows of Abenomics, parts I and II, was revising the constitution?

Wasn't "economics" his 1st, 2nd and 3rd priority? Or was that just some cheap words he uttered when talking to a foreign audience whose risk money he wants risked in Japan?

Meet the new guy, son-in-law of the last guy. If cloning is ever perfected the Japanese will be able to (and will) elect the same "LDP" clone politician in perpetuity.

@MarkX

NHK said the voter turnout in Kyoto was something like 24%! And Hokkaido wasn't much better, either high 20's, or low 30's

And what's the bet that 80 - 90% of that number is seniors? Country is going down the drain faaaaast...

but if you don't then get out and vote

This is the problem, people gave up hope, there are NO good candidates. Nobody gives a damn about elections unless its a AKB election. But seriously we need to get rid of this pathetic government, we need to put this country back on track.

No mention of the voter turnout. I'm always surprised to see how many people are against the LDP, but they continue to win elections. I think many of these people who object to the government also object to voting.

Well, as they say, you get what you deserve. I have no sympathy for people who moan and yet can't be bothered to vote. I'm past caring. Nepotism, lies, scandals, immoral behaviour, xenophobia, Japan you can have 'em all! Tee hee hee.

@papigiulio

But seriously we need to get rid of this pathetic government, we need to put this country back on track

Let's build a wall! Make Japan great again!

Congratulations for Abe Shizo and LDP ,hopefully this will be good omen for Summer election.Good news. All best of luck.

Analysts said the lower house by-election on the northern island of Hokkaido was a test for Abe’s national security agenda

The rest of the country will follow suit. What else would you expect from sheepish Japanese voters??

I'm surprised no mention of the TPP. Hokkaido is hugely about farming, much of which would disappear should TPP go ahead.

@jefflee

Farming makes up a lot of land, but not a lot of voters. Farmers are generally anti LDP (because of TPP), but anyone involved in the value added chain sees TPP as a positive.

5th district is a lot of manufacturing and military families. Pretty sure Chitose Air Base is in there, and about a half dozen other SDF camps in the area.

But seriously we need to get rid of this pathetic government, we need to put this country back on track

I sometimes feel that the wold will be better without any govt at all, at least, it could not be worse and will reflect the sum of what we can achieve individually. I am not understanding this tendency we have to put our destiny/future into the hand of a small group of elites.

hokkaidoguyAPR. 25, 2016 - 11:28AM JST

5th district is a lot of manufacturing and military families. Pretty sure Chitose Air Base is in there, and about a half dozen other SDF camps in the area.

True. LDP Wada won because of his large gain in Chitose sub-district.

http://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/hs/shugihosensokuho.htm

Distribution of Votes

Sub-district, LDP Wada : Ikeda Diff

Sapporo Atubetsu, 29,292 : 33,434 Diff -4,142

Ebetsu, 28,661 : 29,687 Diff -1,026

Chitose, 25,591 : 14,439 Diff +11,152

Eniwa, 19,447 : 13,062 Diff +6,385

Kita Hiroshima, 13,419 : 15,200 Diff -1,781

Ishikari, 13,103 : 13,133 Diff -30

Toubetsu, 5,023 : 3,902 Diff +1,121

Shinshinotsu, 1,306 : 660 Diff +646

Total, 135,842 : 123,517 Diff +12,325

LDP-backed candidate wins Hokkaido by-election

What a big surprise! Not

What if, I know this is crazy but here me out, the LDP frequently wins because people are satisfied with the current state of how things are?

I always see people say that the majority of people don't like the LDP but people just don't vote but wouldn't that mean that people do not mind how things are right now? If they actually were dissatisfied they would go and vote. Maybe the problem is the majority of Japanese people are moderate-conservative shying them away from voting for the SDP?

CH3 - thanks.

Those stats puts a more realistic "spin" on grass roots supporters.

Meet the new guy, son-in-law of the last guy. If cloning is ever perfected the Japanese will be able to (and will) elect the same "LDP" clone politician in perpetuity.

Cloney capitalism.

The Hokkaido result was pretty close. It would be good to know what had been the result last time - if the Democrat party almost eliminated what had been a very wide gap, it may count as a moral victory even though an actual defeat. This kind of analysis, of swings and such, always seems to be missing in Japanese elections, unfortunately.

Why this big anger?its democracy gentlemen,or you only believe in democracy when it is on your favor ?! All these analysis makes no sense,who cares,all what you have to do,is to accept the result.See you on Summer elections.

ghoneim mohamed:

We would love to know your motivation. Why is it that anything and everything connected with Abe and his government is just fine with you, and vice versa? It seems too consistent to be coincidental. Definite pattern there.

Theeastisred

Let me first clarify that this is my opinion and satisfaction even before i came to Japan.2nd,i have no relation of any type with LDP party or members,nor seeking any benefits or interest of any kind.Am the solely and only recognized political refugee in 2015,Japan Today news of 26 March edition,there is few lines about a refugee who was recognized because of his past political participation,this was me.if you Google my name and title(am using my real name)you can find lots about me.Am the first one from my country to be recognized as apolitical refugee since 34years ago.I was supporting Abe Shinzo and LDP party even when i was at detention center of Shinagawa having two deportation orders.James Burke the Canadian guy who posts here as well,was with me and a witness about what i say.My strong support for Abe Shinzo and LDP based on my political belief only.This is an out line to answer you,hope its fair enough.

ghoneim:

I see. That is very interesting. Congratulations to you for getting through the Japanese asylum system. And I can understand your gratefulness to Japan for recognising your plight. But I would urge you to retain some objectiveness at the same time

ghoneim - good luck for your success in your new country. I'm happy you got through the system where 10,000s of others before you have failed.

But re your statement - why the analysis, just accept the result is a little baffling to say the least.

Analyzing a topic on a public forum, sharing views, opinions, facts, data, comments etc is what "opening a topic up" is all about. It is part of the democratic process. I'm not sure if you're used to this or not, but often you come across as a flag-waver for Abe with little supportive content, hence some people probably think you are just trolling. And they are probably wrong.

But in this case - the Hokkaido election - analysis & discussion is very much at the forefront of understanding the political processes and systems in place in Japan.

Heaven forbid if it comes to "shoganai".

Good result. I know many of you here don't like Abe's LDP. But this is the decision of Japanese voters. Majority of us Japanese voters like what Abe does, and this is OUR country. Not most of yours.

ghoneim mohamed

Just wanted to say welcome to Japan. I'm so happy you made it. I hope the process was not harsh. Please do enjoy your life in Japan and when you find something wrong with this country please don't hesitate to speak out we are eager to listen to you.

jj1067 - could you qualify your comment re most Japanese like Abe's work, please. Some facts and stats would be helpful.

Many of the local people I know here loathe him and are not afraid to say so.

ghoneim mohamedAPR. 25, 2016 - 07:34PM JST

.I was supporting Abe Shinzo and LDP party even when i was at detention center of Shinagawa having two deportation orders.James Burke the Canadian guy who posts here as well,was with me and a witness about what i say.My strong support for Abe Shinzo and LDP based on my political belief only.

Yes, but why? I know the opposition are absolutely hopeless, but you have never actually explained what good you see in a party and prime minister that are widely held to be autocratic, corrupt, incompetent, lacking any plans or ideas for solving Japan's problems and unwilling to go against the vested interest groups that they rely on for re-election. Since winning the 2012 election the LDP administration has been, to put it kindly, ineffectual, so why do they deserve anyone's support in the summer elections?

jj1067APR. 25, 2016 - 08:49PM JST

Good result. I know many of you here don't like Abe's LDP. But this is the decision of Japanese voters. Majority of us Japanese voters like what Abe does, and this is OUR country. Not most of yours.

Given that turn-out in elections is generally low and that LDP candidates can win with a plurality of votes rather than a majority I wonder what you base that assertion on.

browny1 Most of all, result of the election is supporting Abe. But talking about stats,

Public opinion polls, for example Yomiuri Shinbun 4/04/2016... LDP 39% DPJ 11% Communist Party 6

FNN/Sankei Abe administration approval 49.4% DPJ approval 7.9%

Considering Japan's political history, these are very high number for Abe. And this is the number after years of Abe's 2nd administration. I think Anti-Abe people speak up when they can while majority of Japanese are usually silent. We don't discuss politics much in Japan in real life even though we do on the internet. But people who have ideology or people who have problem with authority does. Also I think the numbers above shows even people who does not necessarily approve LDP still approves Abe. I feel the same too as some LDP politicians are stupid while I like what Abe does.

Why high approval for Abe, my guess is 1) somehow economy is better than last decades, especially low unemployment rate. 2) Abe is not a puppet of China. DPJ PMs were. 3) We don't have alternative. If not Abe, who? Okada? Ozawa? or even Hatoyama again? they are all joke to us Japanese. DPJ has no chance, not to mention socialists or communists.

BTW same thing as you described seems to be happening as for Trump too. Most of Americans I know denounce Trump but he is getting a lot of support from American voters. I don't judge American politics as I'm not an American citizen. but maybe there is something in Trump that a lot of Americans favor which we foreigner don't understand.

jj1067APR. 26, 2016 - 04:55PM JST

Public opinion polls, for example Yomiuri Shinbun 4/04/2016... LDP 39% DPJ 11% Communist Party 6

39% is not a majority.

FNN/Sankei Abe administration approval 49.4% DPJ approval 7.9%

Not much of a surprise that a Sankei poll reveals a high support rate.

Also I think the numbers above shows even people who does not necessarily approve LDP still approves Abe.

Don't you think it's just as likely, as Abe himself suggested after the 2012 election, that people just can't see any better alternatives? I think that if the opposition could find a halfway credible, charismatic leader Abe would be history.

Simon, you don't understand Japan.

If you look into Asahi shinbun pall, you'll see how much it is biased. Also, name one politician who can replace Abe in democratic election.

Welcome to Japan.

I don't think you understood my comment. So Asahi polls are biased but Sankei and Yomiuri ones aren't? I also made it quite clear that I don't think there are any competent opposition leaders at the moment, hence my use of the words "if," "would" and "could." Or were you just trying to simplify and misrepresent my argument so that you could be condescending?

jj1067, Yeah, "honest" political reporting from Yomiuri and Sankei, whose boss men just happen to be Abe's drinking buddies.

Well, exactly. If an Asahi poll showed high support for Abe and the LDP it would be a slightly different matter. But anyway - opinion polls aren't the same as election results. A 49% approval rate in a Sankei poll means one thing, getting only 12,300 more votes than your opponent in an election with only 57.63% voter turn-out - which even the Yomiuri describes as "winning narrowly" - means something a bit different.

jji067 - thanks for your reply.

As others have suggested random polls don't always reflect reality - but thanks for the info.

Re your statement most Japanese support Abe - results of the last national election - as I recall - saw Abe garner only about 25% of all possible votes. His party won , in part due to a textbook gerrymander.

The weakness of an opposition is certainly unwelcomed in any democracy, but one sides lack of support doesn't mean all support flows to the other side.

As I see it, Abe doesn't have a believing support of the majority.

His party won , in part due to a textbook gerrymander.

Ah, the urban-rural vote value disparity that the LDP are very reluctant to do anything about, no matter how many court rulings there are. I wonder what it's like in Hokkaido.