IF and WHEN Japan is prepared to amend Article 9 of their constitution, convert their completely defensive SDF into a real military with at least some limited offensive capability, and as a nation be prepared to become
and take the responsibility that goes with becoming a Nuclear power, then
Japan will have no need to have any US bases on it's soil. Until then Japan's defense and strategic posture is etirely reliant on the US and the
US-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty and the US bases in Japan are necessaary for the US to fulfill it's treaty obligations.
IF and WHEN Japan is prepared to amend Article 9 of their constitution, convert their completely defensive SDF into a real military with at least some limited offensive capability,
... then the consumption tax will rise from 5% to 25% and people can be reminded of what it's like to support their own military-industrial complex.
No, I don't think it does. Without the US, though, Japan would need to invest a lot of money in training soldiers and building weapons for its own defense. The current situation is a good deal for both the US, who wants a base in the region, and Japan, who wants protection without investing any more in military infrastructure, despite all the drawbacks both sides have been experiencing lately. I think working something out would be best.
Having a large military presence in Japan is necessary, whether or not that large military force is foreign or Japanese is entirely up to the host country. If the government wants to go through the amendment process to their constitution and come up with an agreement that allows the U.S to leave on terms both countries can accept than a withdrawal would be fine. I just don't see that happening.
Japan has the population, economic resources and technical prowess to defend itself. It is high time it did so.
Just because Japan is capable of doing something does not mean it wants to. Maintaining a military on par with it's neighbors would be outrageously expensive, would require a huge increase in manpower, and they would have to work with U.S forces in the region anyway considering most of their military technology comes from U.S companies. Despite all the issues they’ve been having recently I don’t see any major change in the overall security compact occurring any time soon.
OssanAmerica - IF and WHEN Japan is prepared to amend Article 9 of their constitution, convert their completely defensive SDF into a real military with at least some limited offensive capability,
This is exactly why the US bases need to stay. Giving Japan offensive military power is like giving a kid a loaded gun.
Japan is already strong enough to protect itself from most threats. It should kick out all US military, which wasn't even able to (or was told not to) protect the US against the 9/11 attacks.
North Korea won't attack Japan even if US bases are gone. Koreans are basically decent with Japanese. China may try to take the Senkaku islands but probably the US won't deploy its troops when it comes to a real showdown. So practically not much sense to host US bases. They are rather here to bluff Japan into buying more US treasury bonds and ammunitions and providing a workplace for US military personnel. So Japan's best policy is to Taiwanize China as early as possible and mitigate the aforementioned need through peaceful measures.
What Japan wants is a free ride, both militarily and diplomatically.
But I don't really care what Japan wants.
What I care about is what is in the US's strategic interest and clearly defending Japan no longer is.
I have to disagree with you there BrightEyes. The US's strategic interests have nothing to do with suppressing the Japanese war machine anymore, just as they no longer seek to keep the German's at bay. (I'm sure this is what you mean though, and here I do agree with you). What IS in America's interests is their status as world leader, and having bases all around the world to address regional issues quickly is a great way to accomplish this.
Having a quick and powerful response to China or North Korea is definitely in both Japan and America's interest.
Now, yes. But less bases than before. Today enviroment is more about trade and currency, than about soldiers and nukes.
If J leaders try "really" hard to improve relations with China and South Korea, in 25 years, less bases are going to be needed.
If the the East Asian Communitty become real and not just "a pipe dream", in 50 years, maybe no US bases are going to be neded. But that is too far in to the future, perhaps beyond our lifetimes.
People talk like it can happen overnight, but in J changes happen at glacial speed (2 meters per year), so dont hold your breath or talk like is the end of the world just because the relocation of "one base".
PS. trying to reverse the baby culture effects will be almost impossible now after 60 years. (kawai, AKB48, otaku, keitei, parasite children, basically babies who cry, judge, complain, bitch... etc) But yes I would love Japan to add budget a trillion in military bills and take care of itself but who are we kiddin....
Baby steps people, baby steps. But it would be good for the US to start reducing its military presence and slowly let Japan learn how to take responsibility for its own back yard. As long as US & Japan military work together even after US bases are converted to JSDF then it would be good. I wonder though how many Japanese are willing to join the JSDF though to keep them as a strong defensive force for their country.
The Phillipines pull out didn't go extremely well since their government wasn't really stable enough to take the brunt of their choices.
Japan has a choice. It can fund its own defence or it can let the US do part of the job. Option 1 wouldn't require Japan to host US bases. Option 2 ost certainly does.
There are more 80 places of US bases and facilities all over in Japan. It does not need so many, and US Marines either. Time is coming sooner or later that Japan would have to build up stronger SDF in the future without US forces.
@My2Senses
I have recently been reading 'Embracing defeat', haven't got that far through it because I've been busy recently but I have really enjoyed reading it.
The poll at the moment stands at 50%, 50%. This clearly is not a one sided debate and I think Japan needs to consider this issue, but it seems that (when you look at polls) that the Japanese (not all, the right wing especially not) are apathetic towards increasing the SDF.
Here are my disorganized thoughts on the matter. I am simply too lazy right now to put my thoughts into a cohesive format.
Clearly the "need" of Japan is outweighed by a sensible self interest. I think the U.S. and Japan agree that it is in neither party's self interest to have a bulked up Japan. Japan would not want to militarize a generation of kids to get the ground forces needed. I think Japan would use missiles and Air Forces to make up the difference in ground forces.
Everyone knows there are submarines out their with the equivalence of cruise missiles that are protecting the entire region. Japan would need to have land based cruise missiles. Some of them would need to be nuclear missiles. Why, because the geo-political balance would create a vacuum of weakness; at the very least by perception. That perception is extremely important no matter what anyone else here says. Why do you think China is building up its military capacity? If you believe China wants to go to war with anybody you are crazy. To be one of the top players in the world they need all the vestiges of the great world powers.
Japan for many of the same reasons must at least appear to be able to defend itself against potentially hostile neighbors. No I am not paranoid. I realize N. Korea is the biggest threat and they know they would be evaporated even if the U.S. had no bases in Japan. They know as friends we will still be out there somewhere.
So to summarize. Japan is a rich nation. Riches need to be guarded. Nukes are the best guards available. Japan and the U.S. do not want Japan to have that many nuclear weapons. Not that we can't trust them, but it would be a destabilizing situation.
Do we want to compete with Japanese Defense Contractors?
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36 Comments
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0
hellhound
Yes, Japan must serve its motherland the U.S.A. The same happens with every little island out there.
0
OssanAmerica
IF and WHEN Japan is prepared to amend Article 9 of their constitution, convert their completely defensive SDF into a real military with at least some limited offensive capability, and as a nation be prepared to become and take the responsibility that goes with becoming a Nuclear power, then Japan will have no need to have any US bases on it's soil. Until then Japan's defense and strategic posture is etirely reliant on the US and the US-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty and the US bases in Japan are necessaary for the US to fulfill it's treaty obligations.
0
ppayne
Yes. Japan lost WWII. The exchange for some of its territory so that American stabilize the region is not unreasonable.
0
Beelzebub
... then the consumption tax will rise from 5% to 25% and people can be reminded of what it's like to support their own military-industrial complex.
0
Farmboy
No, I don't think it does. Without the US, though, Japan would need to invest a lot of money in training soldiers and building weapons for its own defense. The current situation is a good deal for both the US, who wants a base in the region, and Japan, who wants protection without investing any more in military infrastructure, despite all the drawbacks both sides have been experiencing lately. I think working something out would be best.
0
Xeno23
See, if the US got out, then Japan would be forced to hurry up its giant flying robots program, which is really all I'm waiting for...
0
BrightEyes
Japan doesn't need to host US bases, nor does the US need Japan to host them.
Japan has the population, economic resources and technical prowess to defend itself. It is high time it did so.
The US should abrogate the security treaty move bases to US territory and leave Japan to its own ample devices.
0
TheQuestion
Having a large military presence in Japan is necessary, whether or not that large military force is foreign or Japanese is entirely up to the host country. If the government wants to go through the amendment process to their constitution and come up with an agreement that allows the U.S to leave on terms both countries can accept than a withdrawal would be fine. I just don't see that happening.
Just because Japan is capable of doing something does not mean it wants to. Maintaining a military on par with it's neighbors would be outrageously expensive, would require a huge increase in manpower, and they would have to work with U.S forces in the region anyway considering most of their military technology comes from U.S companies. Despite all the issues they’ve been having recently I don’t see any major change in the overall security compact occurring any time soon.
0
SenatorAcorn
North Korea and the PLA both say No.
0
BrightEyes
What Japan wants is a free ride, both militarily and diplomatically.
But I don't really care what Japan wants.
What I care about is what is in the US's strategic interest and clearly defending Japan no longer is.
We should end the alliance and let Japan take care of herself.
0
vulcan
Japan is the worlds second largest economy with 126,000,000 people. They don't need US bases. They can replace us with their own.
0
ca1ic0cat
Need to? No. Is it prudent? Yeah. Reality sucks, doesn't it. But it would be reasonable to see Japan pay for the lot or get their own.
0
Disillusioned
This is exactly why the US bases need to stay. Giving Japan offensive military power is like giving a kid a loaded gun.
0
sabiwabi
Japan is already strong enough to protect itself from most threats. It should kick out all US military, which wasn't even able to (or was told not to) protect the US against the 9/11 attacks.
0
YGHome
Should Japan serve as the buffer and as the shock absorber when the big strong fellow wants to rule the world?
0
Seiharinokaze
North Korea won't attack Japan even if US bases are gone. Koreans are basically decent with Japanese. China may try to take the Senkaku islands but probably the US won't deploy its troops when it comes to a real showdown. So practically not much sense to host US bases. They are rather here to bluff Japan into buying more US treasury bonds and ammunitions and providing a workplace for US military personnel. So Japan's best policy is to Taiwanize China as early as possible and mitigate the aforementioned need through peaceful measures.
0
mechadamuramu
I have to disagree with you there BrightEyes. The US's strategic interests have nothing to do with suppressing the Japanese war machine anymore, just as they no longer seek to keep the German's at bay. (I'm sure this is what you mean though, and here I do agree with you). What IS in America's interests is their status as world leader, and having bases all around the world to address regional issues quickly is a great way to accomplish this.
Having a quick and powerful response to China or North Korea is definitely in both Japan and America's interest.
0
mareo2
Now, yes. But less bases than before. Today enviroment is more about trade and currency, than about soldiers and nukes.
If J leaders try "really" hard to improve relations with China and South Korea, in 25 years, less bases are going to be needed.
If the the East Asian Communitty become real and not just "a pipe dream", in 50 years, maybe no US bases are going to be neded. But that is too far in to the future, perhaps beyond our lifetimes.
People talk like it can happen overnight, but in J changes happen at glacial speed (2 meters per year), so dont hold your breath or talk like is the end of the world just because the relocation of "one base".
0
my2sense
read Embracing Defeat and this will answer your silly question.
0
my2sense
PS. trying to reverse the baby culture effects will be almost impossible now after 60 years. (kawai, AKB48, otaku, keitei, parasite children, basically babies who cry, judge, complain, bitch... etc) But yes I would love Japan to add budget a trillion in military bills and take care of itself but who are we kiddin....
0
jessssicaaa
NO! They do not need to.
0
HonestDictator
Baby steps people, baby steps. But it would be good for the US to start reducing its military presence and slowly let Japan learn how to take responsibility for its own back yard. As long as US & Japan military work together even after US bases are converted to JSDF then it would be good. I wonder though how many Japanese are willing to join the JSDF though to keep them as a strong defensive force for their country.
The Phillipines pull out didn't go extremely well since their government wasn't really stable enough to take the brunt of their choices.
0
geodeal
japan should kick the u.s. bases OUT!
0
Shumatsu_Samurai
Japan has a choice. It can fund its own defence or it can let the US do part of the job. Option 1 wouldn't require Japan to host US bases. Option 2 ost certainly does.
0
kumasan1969
All Japan has to do is to regain the trust and friendship with China. U.S. presence is an obstacle. Protecting us or Korea is not their interest.
0
kwatt
There are more 80 places of US bases and facilities all over in Japan. It does not need so many, and US Marines either. Time is coming sooner or later that Japan would have to build up stronger SDF in the future without US forces.
0
afronathan
@My2Senses I have recently been reading 'Embracing defeat', haven't got that far through it because I've been busy recently but I have really enjoyed reading it.
The poll at the moment stands at 50%, 50%. This clearly is not a one sided debate and I think Japan needs to consider this issue, but it seems that (when you look at polls) that the Japanese (not all, the right wing especially not) are apathetic towards increasing the SDF.
0
goodDonkey
Here are my disorganized thoughts on the matter. I am simply too lazy right now to put my thoughts into a cohesive format.
Clearly the "need" of Japan is outweighed by a sensible self interest. I think the U.S. and Japan agree that it is in neither party's self interest to have a bulked up Japan. Japan would not want to militarize a generation of kids to get the ground forces needed. I think Japan would use missiles and Air Forces to make up the difference in ground forces.
Everyone knows there are submarines out their with the equivalence of cruise missiles that are protecting the entire region. Japan would need to have land based cruise missiles. Some of them would need to be nuclear missiles. Why, because the geo-political balance would create a vacuum of weakness; at the very least by perception. That perception is extremely important no matter what anyone else here says. Why do you think China is building up its military capacity? If you believe China wants to go to war with anybody you are crazy. To be one of the top players in the world they need all the vestiges of the great world powers.
Japan for many of the same reasons must at least appear to be able to defend itself against potentially hostile neighbors. No I am not paranoid. I realize N. Korea is the biggest threat and they know they would be evaporated even if the U.S. had no bases in Japan. They know as friends we will still be out there somewhere.
So to summarize. Japan is a rich nation. Riches need to be guarded. Nukes are the best guards available. Japan and the U.S. do not want Japan to have that many nuclear weapons. Not that we can't trust them, but it would be a destabilizing situation.
Do we want to compete with Japanese Defense Contractors?
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