The outcome depends on how well the opposition can gain support in their campaign against constitutional revision.

And in part that depends on the media making it an issue. Right now it seems like welfare and the economy are well ahead in the concerns of the old people who vote, and this generation of oldies has a distinguished history of looking after their own short-term interests and be damned.

The outcome depends on how well the opposition can gain support in their campaign against constitutional revision.

While the revision is a big issue, I do not agree that it is the only issue. The opposition can win if they can show themselves to be completely different from the LDP. They have already shown themselves to be against constitutional revision. If they can unite behind the following criteria, they can be sure to win:

Anti-nuclear. campaign on making Japan nuclear free

Anti state secrets. promise to try to repeal the state secrets law.

Raising of the minimum wage to 1500 yen.

More financial aid and subsidies to young families to get them to have more children.

Stronger rules and regulation with enforcement regarding the workplace with regards to overtime, harassment.

These are all issues a progressive party can get behind. Most people are not one issue people. The opposition needs to be seen as clearly different if they are going to win.