We tell people not to expect researchers to predict earthquakes with any exactness because we've discovered that it's nearly impossible to do. We've started talking in a more holistic way, about how to react when one hits.
Quote of the Day ( 4 )
Teruyuki Kato, a professor at the Earthquake Research Institute at the University of Tokyo (Los Angeles Times)
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stirfry
the rest of the world figured out 30 yrs ago that earthquake prediction was an inexact science, at best...the japanese are just figuring it out now ?
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mysterystevenson
This may be an inexact science, but it also may be getting better and better every day. I started a thread less than a month ago, and now after only 3 replies, something very curious seems to be a happening, 4 quakes today, smallest a 5, largest so far a 6.9, same quake rocked and cracked the walls of some skyscrapers 450 miles away in Phoenix, Arizona! Check the thread; http://multiversality.11.forumer.com/viewtopic.php?t=177 Mystery
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escape_artist
"holistic"?
Judging from a single quote is always an inexact science, but here it sounds more like they've given up on the pre part (predicting) and are now focusing on the post part, i.e., just being more realistic (or some may say, reactive). Hopefully his use of "holistic" still includes the preventive part, like in how they construct buildings, plan communities, allocate funds, etc.
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escape_artist
Here's the LA Times story this quote is buried in, from July 31...
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-japan-quake31-2009jul31,0,3951922,full.story
As the article discusses, regular folks -- mainly after becoming disillusioned with researchers almost always being wrong -- are indeed apparently taking things into their own hands and being proactive about earthquake preparedness. But the researchers are telling people this (not to place so much trust in them) because they know they've continually failed. No other choice for them if they want to retain any sense of respect in a society that almost worships anyone in a white lab coat or who has "sensei" after their name.
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