Kikuchi's decision to say no to majors sparks mixed reactions

Monday 26th October, 06:42 AM JST

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Tahoochi at 04:50 PM JST - 26th October

techall, I guess that would work too, on the conditions that the signing bonus is sufficient (signing bonuses for an 18 yr old in Japan are probably not as big as you would think), he doesn't blow it all away in a year or two (which many 18 years olds do), and he pitches well enough (the odds against 18 year old pitchers succeeding in the pros? not good when you consider how many try out)... but then again, if he's got what it takes, then good for him.
isthistheend at 08:53 PM JST - 26th October

I agree with combinibento. People here (myself included) get friggin brainwashed by the pure insanity of everyday life, thinking its the BEST way to be, whether in the world of baseball, salaryman, sumo, or shokunin. This country does have its unique and BEST OF features, but sports definitely is NOT one of them. As great as Ishikawa-san is as an 18-year old, I can tell you there are at least 50 other 18 year olds in the world as good as he is, maybe more. And then the 17-16-15 year olds who can probably give him a good game are also out in numbers. Not to mention the 19-20-21-22-23 year olds who will also be battling for prize money. The same is true or more so in the MLB. Thousands of youngsters are probably as good as this guy is or will be. Japanese baseball is deceptive because they push the player so hard when they are young (as in other fields) that they reach their peaks early (18-or so) and then fade out before 30. Especially pitchers, and one Fukudome of the Chunichi Dragons now Chicago Cubs. Westerners consider a 30-year old player in the middle of his career, but here he's as good as finished. One exception being Ichiro, who amazes with his longevity and productivity year after year.
northlondon at 12:39 AM JST - 27th October

Japanese baseball needs to grow up and get rid of that huge chip on it's shoulder. The ban imposed on Japanese rookies going to the Majors and the 9 year club rule is illegal under employment law. The best thing that could happen to Japanese pro baseball if this rule was declared illegal in court and the Major League teams allowed to use their financial might to snatch the best talent. What would happen to Japanese pro baseball then ? The leagues would be shaken up, new franchises would be invited and free market finance would be allowed to flourish to match Major League salaries (goodbye Yomiuri dominance and NPB mediocrity). Couldn't think of anything better for the Japanese pro leagues.
sfjp330 at 02:36 AM JST - 27th October

How many US high schoolers can throw mid-90s? I bet it's a very short list indeed. You don't come out of the womb throwing high-90s with nasty movement on breaking balls.

PAWATAN: You really don't know what you're talking about. "Short list"? You ever watch major U.S. college teams, USC, UCLA, Washington, Florida, Stanford? Or single A or AA or AAA minor league team? They all have one or two players on each team that throws this hard, low 90's to mid 90's with great movement. Pitching also is not really how hard you throw, but a different movement, keeping the batter off balance and mixing pitches. Power pitcher is common in U.S. and Kikuchi is nothing special. Maybe in Japan he's a exception and has better chance to make it there. He will have difficulty and maybe at most marginal in the U.S. just like Tazawa or worse. I don't know his mental makeup which is a big part of strength.
azzassa at 03:32 AM JST - 27th October

yep i'm sure you know what YOU'RE talking about. i guess sfjp330 has more credibility than the major league/japanese teams that had interest in him. thank goodness we have a pro scout like him here. Seattle Mariners scout Yasushi Yamamoto, New York Mets scout Isao Ojimi , you guys are nobodies. someone one fired them already and hire sfjp330 already. its a travesty that someone with so much scouting knowledge is stuck on japantoday, posting an opinion of a guy who he has absolutely no knowledge of besides a few clips off of youtube.
sfjp330 at 03:50 AM JST - 27th October

azzassa;

What is your opinion on the Kikuchi rather than mouth off. Who did Yamamoto (since 2004) and Ojimi signed? Definitely not Ichiro. So Mariners signed Suda & Jojhima, a major financial bust. Mets signed Takahashi, released and a bust. They are called pro scouts or girls scouts? What's their accomplishments in U.S. for getting productive Asian players?
azzassa at 04:07 AM JST - 27th October

doesnt matter if they havent had the results. they could have signed the worst players ever and it wouldnt matter. the difference is that they are pros and you are not. you're mister nobody sounding off on a player you have NO clue about. whats my opinion of him? i dont have one. as i SHOULDN'T. why? because all i know about him are some news articles and some video clips. not enough to call him the next big thing and definitely not enough to call him overrated and label him a potential bust. what i do know is that he's a LEFTY that can touch mid 90s and if he was coming out of high school in the US, you can bet a ton of major colleges would drooling over the opportunity to get him in their program.
sfjp330 at 05:13 AM JST - 27th October

azzassa;

You know the reason why I am optimistic on players such as Kikuchi and Tazawa that are so young and raw is that competitive level is completely different in the U.S. Many pitchers that that throws 90-96 in the U.S. is very common and not a fluke as in Japan. As you know, there are only few major impact players that came out of Japan in the last 15 years to play in MLB such as Hideo Nomo (great pitcher), Okajima, Saito, Ichiro, Hideki Matsui. You had players like Fukudome, Matsuzaka, Kaz Matsui, Ogawa, Jojhima, Shinjo, many others,that were invested heavily by the U.S. teams that got burned. In the future, especially with economy, very few U.S. teams are ready to pay big money for Japanese players because of the higher initial cost and risks. Most team prefer drafting top talents from U.S. Colleges or Latin players.
nigelboy at 06:36 AM JST - 27th October

sfjp,

Why is that you compare Kikuchi to that of Tazawa or any other players coming from Japan? To me, this makes no sense. Since Kikuchi is a left hander, shouldn't he be compared to other LH starting pitchers in MLB?

And your comment about "few major impact players that came out of Japan" is irrelevant since very few have actually tried for the Majors. For every Pujols, there are hundreds and hundreds of Latin players "busts". For ever Arod, there are hundreds and hundres of U.S. College draft "busts" whom the MLB clubs have signed them to a heft bonus.
pathat at 07:20 AM JST - 27th October

nigel: You make some good points, but I would add that Kikuchi should also not be compared to Tazawa because there is a huge difference between an 18 y/o graduating from HS and a 23 y/o who has played in Japan's corporate leagues. Kikuchi undoubtedly would have been subjected to at least 3-4 minor league seasons before getting a whiff of MLB, whereas Tazawa pitched a few games for the Red Sox in his rookie season, although mainly due to injuries at the MLB level. Tazawa will really have to show his stuff, so to speak, next season.

Thinking back to a certain scandal involving a Yokohama draftee a few years ago and the team paying way above what was the allowable money at the time to get him, you can bet that there has been quite a lot of money being exchanged under the table by certain people to keep Yusei Kikuchi in Japan.
isthistheend at 07:34 AM JST - 27th October

Every year, or every other year, another 18-year old savior will take the mound or tee-up the golf ball, or lace up their skates at 14-15. The world of sports is such a tumultuous challenge, we can't be sure from one day to the next. Mark Prior of the Chicago Cubs was drafted 2nd after the Twins chose their future hall of fame catcher. He went 18-3 in his first full season, and I thought my hometown team finally had its young ace for years to come. That was the LAST productive year of the young Prior's career. Shoulder problems and surgery and he never came back. It was shocking. He had Everything going for him but it suddenly went bad. Such is the nature of competitive sports. Nothing to get excited about an 18-year old "phenom" from Japan. Give me one at 23-24-25 anyday.
sfjp330 at 07:43 AM JST - 27th October

Since Kikuchi is a left hander, shouldn't he be compared to other LH starting pitchers in MLB?

If you could read a earlier comment on same category, I mentioned Madison Bumgarner, who was 19 years old lefthander, who pitched for the Giants in September '09. Make direct comparison with Kikuchi. Bumgarner will probably start for the Giants in '10.

And your comment about "few major impact players that came out of Japan" is irrelevant since very few have actually tried for the Majors. For every Pujols, there are hundreds and hundreds of Latin players "busts". For ever Arod, there are hundreds and hundres of U.S. College draft "busts" whom the MLB clubs have signed them to a heft bonus.

How many latin is paid $100 ($50 million for the rights and $50million for signing) like Matsuzaka for not pitching an inning in MLB or $50mil. Fukudome, $21mil Ogawa, or Jojhima? They are a high profile major investment players that do no produce at this level compared to non-experience latin players who does not cost much to sign.

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pawatan at 01:47 PM JST - 27th October

Pitching also is not really how hard you throw, but a different movement, keeping the batter off balance and mixing pitches. Power pitcher is common in U.S. and Kikuchi is nothing special. Maybe in Japan he's a exception and has better chance to make it there. He will have difficulty and maybe at most marginal in the U.S. just like Tazawa or worse. I don't know his mental makeup which is a big part of strength.

Ah, sfjp is an internet expert, I understand. You say "there", meaning you don't live "here", which means you probably haven't seen Kikuchi pitch. I don't know why you think nobody else knows what makes an effective pitcher - apparently including all NPB teams and several MLB teams.
nigelboy at 12:40 AM JST - 28th October

If you could read a earlier comment on same category, I mentioned Madison Bumgarner, who was 19 years old lefthander, who pitched for the Giants in September '09. Make direct comparison with Kikuchi. Bumgarner will probably start for the Giants in '10.

So you're comparing a 19 year old kid who's going to be in the starting rotation next year. In other words, he's a stud. More reason why MLB scouts are looking into Kikuchi in light of the fact that LH pitchers are at a premium.

How many latin is paid $100 ($50 million for the rights and $50million for signing) like Matsuzaka for not pitching an inning in MLB or $50mil. Fukudome, $21mil Ogawa, or Jojhima? They are a high profile major investment players that do no produce at this level compared to non-experience latin players who does not cost much to sign.

Again straying off topic. The examples you mentioned above are NPB players turned MLB where posting was required. We're talking about an amateur so there are no "major investment" you speak of.
sfjp330 at 02:47 AM JST - 28th October

you're comparing a 19 year old kid who's going to be in the starting rotation next year. In other words, he's a stud. More reason why MLB scouts are looking into Kikuchi in light of the fact that LH pitchers are at a premium.

Bumgarner is barely two years out of high school as a amateur. He played in Giants single 'A' club in San Jose for 1/2 the season and went to "AA" in Connecticut during mid. He has all the tools but maybe maturity might take time. If he makes the major league Giants roster for '10 season, he will be paid major league minimum at $425K so it's not a major financial setback for the Giants. I have seen Bumgarner and has one of the nastiest 92-94 mph sliders with great movement. Kikuchi has all the tools and I hope NPB does not destroy his arm like others and wish him the best.