British PM warns of Brexit pain

Vote "Leave".

Vote remain.

Cameron must be regretting that he supported holding this referendum. Doubt he realized how close it would be.

Analogous to Brexit, for Japan I propose Chinin, joining China and leaving the western sphere of influence.

choosing to leave in an orderly manner is better that having to scramble when the EU collapses anyway...

The globalists are really panicking about this vote.

"Britain would lose its free trade access to the bloc..."

I want to know what kind of tariff scheme they can expect. 20% tariffs on jet engine parts, for example?

And how is that non-EU regional countries like Norway and Switzerland aren't taking a massive hit to their economies, which actually perform light years better than the likes of Spain or Italy?

"Osborne said he hoped Cox’s death would lead to “a less divisive political debate in our country”

Coming from the squealing wet fart of a politician whose party called this referendum in the first place because they were losing votes and members to the kippers. Have you seen Gideon's owner in action in the Commons? I can't remember him once debating an idea sensibly as he bullies, name-calls and acts like an overprivileged brat.

Spare us the sanctimony, Gideon. Oh, and nasty digs at gay members of the house don't exactly bring people together either.

@JeffLee

And how is that non-EU regional countries like Norway and Switzerland aren't taking a massive hit to their economies, which actually perform light years better than the likes of Spain or Italy?

But both Switzerland and Norway are actually part of the EU single market despite not being EU members. They pay a substantial amount of money to the EU in exchange for some degree of access to the single market. They agree to accept most EU regulations and directives as well as free movement of people. They must follow the same rules as EU members, but they aren't given a seat at the table when those rules are created.

On tariffs, the percentage on most goods is often very negligible or even zero, but it will be the time and cost of the paperwork involved for Europeans customers importing British goods that will be the real disadvantage for UK businesses.

For example, even if the tariff rate is 0% for your WTO British goods, companies will still have substantial costs in filling out the import declarations, having their cargo randomly inspected to see if it meets EU standards, negotiating with the French customs officers in Calais about which HS code matches the goods, arranging for the payment of French VAT upfront (even if there are no tariffs to be paid). It will be an absolute nightmare to import goods from the UK, and we knows this for a fact because it's exactly how it used to be before the single market. And unfortunately the EU will have little incentive to make it any easier.

M3M3M3, you may not have noted but Switzerland has just formally withdrawn their application to join EU which was essentially forgotten.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3644697/Switzerland-WITHDRAWS-application-European-Union-member-state-one-week-Brexit-vote.html

Regardless of whether the Brits vote for Independence or Subservience to Brussels, the cracks in the EU are spreading. Its demise is inevitable, IMO.

Thanks Frederic Bastiat, I hadn't noticed this story. I don't often read the Daily Mail. Obviously this is just a bit of housekeeping. Switzerland still has a treaty with the EU which gives them access in exchange for playing by EU rules. I don't think anyone in Switzerland is crazy enough to suggest scraping that. As far as their old application for full EU membership, there's nothing wrong with sorting out your old paperwork on a lazy summer afternoon.

About 50% of UK exports go to the EU. About 7% of German exports go to the UK. If the UK leaves the EU and trade barriers are erected, which country will lose the most?

The UK will be completely stuffed if it leaves the single market. I have read many times claims by Johnson and Farage that because the UK has a large trade deficit with the EU the EU will be keen to strike a favourable deal on market access.

But it's clear that the UK will be in an extremely weak position in such negotiations. If we suppose that all UK-EU trade stops completely the Germans stand to lose 7% of their export market. That's going to cause them a little bit of pain, but they will be able to cope. Conversely, if the UK loses 50% of its export market it will be catastrophic for the UK economy.

There is plenty to complain about with the EU, but we would be much better off staying in and trying to form alliances with others, rather than leaving in a strop and being forced into penury by the likes of Johnson.

Johnson was calling for an amnesty for illegal immigrants yesterday. How that fits with his constant droning on about "points systems" and gaining control of our borders was never explained. Having Johnson in power will not only lead to economic collapse, it will also mean an immigration free-for-all.

Frederik Bastiat:

" Regardless of whether the Brits vote for Independence or Subservience to Brussels, the cracks in the EU are spreading. Its demise is inevitable, IMO. "

I so wish you were right. But the globalist cabale is determined to continue their project of destroying nation states, come hell or high water. I fully expect the Brits to vote for the Brexit, only to have their vote ignored later, on a technicality.

Or repeated over and over again, until the globalists get the "right" result, like they did so many times before.

@M3M3M3

"cost of the paperwork involved"

"paperwork" -- how quaint. Custom clearance is pretty much run by online systems today, whereby a few keystrokes and you're moving. Further, no one is going scrap entrenched trade and investment channels.

As for the armies of French customs agents poring over a shipment of British apples. Well, that sounds labor intensive. I guess all the EU countries are going to have to expand hiring and training customs agents because of the UK exit, huh? Nope, ain't gonna happen.

What has happened is that in 2004, before Eastern European countries entered, British workers had rising incomes and the govt services were expanding. Now, averages wages are falling and govt services scaled back. There is a solid economic argument in favor of exiting if you're a middle class resident Brit.

NAAFT, for example, has created more trade in N.America, coinciding with stagnating wages. Free trade benefits the super wealth and few others.

'And how is that non-EU regional countries like Norway and Switzerland aren't taking a massive hit to their economies, which actually perform light years better than the likes of Spain or Italy?'

They sure do jefflee but the UK simply doesn't have the natural resources of Norway (oil, gas etc) nor the strengths of the swiss economy so to assume they would do fine as 'others like norway or switzerland do' is a bit optimistic. The UK faces similar challenges to the other big 50M plus euro nations, small/filthy rich nations like Norway and Switzerland are exceptions.

Something I dont get though is that ppl pro 'leave' think they will be better off alone in terms of immigration. Not sure about that as I think EU nations which until now had, sort of, prevented many migrants from joining the uk may look at the situation differently I.e 'your burden guys'. Definitely not an easy choice.

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/sports-central/uk-eu-referendum/

73% chance of Remain at the bookies this morning. This isn't as close as the media would like you to believe. Hysteria sells.

@JeffLee

"paperwork" -- how quaint. Custom clearance is pretty much run by online systems today, whereby a few keystrokes and you're moving.

Considering that only the largest companies and customs brokers have access to the computerised customs clearance systems you're talking about, it's going to mean increased costs for the other 90% of small and medium sized businesses. Either because they're filling out the paperwork themselves or because they're hiring a customs broker to do it for them electronically.

To use a real world example, do you think that this small confectionery wholesaler in France (below) has access to an online customs clearance system? If they now have to pay hundreds of Euros to a customs broker for each shipment from the UK, the Maltesers and Cadbury bars made in Britain are not going to be priced very competitively compared to the Toblerones or the Kinder Surprises.

http://www.distri2000.com/barre-chocolat.php

There is a solid economic argument in favor of exiting if you're a middle class resident Brit.

There is no solid economic argument as far as I'm concerned. The surplus of cheap labour in the UK has meant the creation of 1000s of businesses in the UK that wouldn't be viable without EU freedom of movement. Think about all of the entreprenuers, accountants, lawyers, HR professionals, architects, engineers, and marketing executives that owe their jobs to the agricultural processing, construction and service businesses that wouldn't exist if it weren't for eastern European labour. Unlike the low skilled jobs filled by eastern Europeans, these are high skilled middle class British jobs filled by British workers. I'd like those high skilled jobs to be available for my children and investment in skills rather than protectionism for low skilled Brits. There are certainly legitimate concerns about housing and public services when it comes to immigration, but the economic argument is quite clearly on the side of the EU and freedom of movement.

"paperwork" -- how quaint. Custom clearance is pretty much run by online systems today, whereby a few keystrokes and you're moving. Further, no one is going scrap entrenched trade and investment channels.

As for the armies of French customs agents poring over a shipment of British apples. Well, that sounds labor intensive.

The French won't employ "armies" of customs agents to inspect shipments of British apples. They will employ one guy. He will be on strike half the time, and the apples will rot in the warehouse. I guarantee it.

M3M3:

" but the economic argument is quite clearly on the side of the EU and freedom of movement. "

Those are different issues. If the UK wants a free trade deal with the EU and open its borders to unlimited immigration, German/Swedish style, they can do that.. But an elected government should do that. None of those issues are linked to submitting under the unelected dictatorship in Brussels.

I remember the same obfuscation with the Euro currency debate. The Eurocrats claimed that not joining the Euro would mean economic disaster. Well, the opposite is the case. The non-Euro countries are doing better than the Euro countries.

@Zaphod

If the UK wants a free trade deal with the EU and open its borders to unlimited immigration, German/Swedish style, they can do that.. But an elected government should do that.

If I've understood your point correctly, you believe that British MPs in Westminster should be allowed to pass laws creating the single market and free movement (if they wanted to), but that MPs should never be allowed to pass a law (like the European Communities Act 1972) which delegates rule making powers to unelected bureaucrats?

The Eurocrats claimed that not joining the Euro would mean economic disaster. Well, the opposite is the case.

I think there are serious problems with the Euro, but one thing that needs to be mentioned is that the history of the Euro would have been completely different if Britain had actually joined. It's intellectually dishonest when some people point to the Euro's current problems as evidence that not joining the Euro in the 90s was a great decision.

@Scrote

The French won't employ "armies" of customs agents to inspect shipments of British apples. They will employ one guy. He will be on strike half the time, and the apples will rot in the warehouse. I guarantee it.

Exactly.

Cameron and Osborne, have nothing but utter distain and contempt for the UK electorate, both view voter as barbarian hordes of great the unwashed and feckless . The restrictive treaties killed any credence or significance to Cameron and Osborne draft deal , the negotiated concessions are meaningless. there is no incentive to cut the burdens of red tape to small businesses, not a single reform to boost competitiveness.

Article 50.1

Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.....

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

And the threats...

European commission president Jean-Claude Juncker

"Deserters will not be welcomed with open arms, if the British should say no, which I hope they don't, then life in the EU will not go on as before, the United Kingdom will have to accept being regarded as a third country, which won't be handled with kid gloves, if the British leave Europe, people will have to face the consequences, we will have to, just as they will. It's not a threat but our relations will no longer be what they are today."

Angela Merkel...

"Britain will NEVER get what it wants out of the EU if it leaves"

Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister..

"At some point the British will realise they have taken the wrong decision, in is in, out is out".

Cameron invokes Churchill ....

“At my office I sit 2 yards away from the Cabinet Room where Winston Churchill decided, in May 1940, to fight on against Hitler. The best and greatest decision perhaps anyone’s ever made in our country. He didn’t want to be alone. He wanted to be fighting with the French, and with the Poles, and with the others. But he didn’t quit. He didn’t quit on Europe. He didn’t quit on European democracy. He didn’t quit on European freedom. We want to fight for those things today. And you can’t fight if you’re not in the room.”.....

Churchill was fighting the threat of Nazi Germany.... Where is the parallel?...

Winston Churchill for Cameron ...Tact is the ability to tell someone to go to hell, in such a way they look forward to it... .....Preparation involves statesmanship, expense, and exertion, and neither submission nor preparation are free from suffering and danger.

The EU commission only offers nothing but threats and intimidation,.......

Guess who is going to be quid's in, hint....buying assets forwarding Tuesday 14th SOR smart buy order on given number of equity on UK's incumbent telecom company, today the premium spot is akin to a Euro lottery win...... Truly breathtaking.......

"73% chance of Remain at the bookies this morning. This isn't as close as the media would like you to believe. Hysteria sells"

I used to work for a bookie and I like a bet myself. Some very clever people work for bookies ( I'm not counting myself as one if them ). That said, the bookies, along with most people, called the last two elections wrong. They offered pretty generous odds on a Tory majority in 2015 with very low odds on a hung parliament. They took a bit of a hit on pretty generous odds on the kippers getting under 5 MPs ( I won a bit on that one ). They also underestimated the scale of the Liberal/Labour spanking at the hands of the SNP ( I lost a bit on that one ).

I think it will be a remain vote but I wouldn't trust the bookies 100%.

@itsonlyrocknroll

The EU commission only offers nothing but threats and intimidation

Well, I think it's being quite reasonable and realistic. I think the British people are savvy enough to appreciate how the global economy works and where Juncker is coming from. Once the UK leaves the EU they will become an economic competitor on the EU's doorstep. As a European, I expect the EU to do everything possible to secure as many jobs and opportunities as possible for EU citizens. Wouldn't you agree that anything less would be a dereliction of duty on the part of the Commission?

The Out campaigners don't seem to have any answers... all they bang on about is immigration and 'taking back control'. If enough SUN readers vote to leave then we'll be cast adrift, holed below the waterline with a bunch of nutters set to take control and steer us towards the rocks to claim the insurance money.

Hi M3M3M3, Why a competitor? In which field, there is a case in financial services, balance of payments (MEI) is the yard stick that that proves Great Britain is EU number one market place, without fear or favor . he commission is huffing and puffing, trade will carry on regardless.

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MEI_BOP

It never occurred to me, but theoretically both the commission and the current UK government can fudge on regardless, rest assured they will. Any negotiation in the event of Brexit will be followed by political oohing and aahing, to-ing and fro-ing, Jiggery-pokery, until eventually both agree, after all great is the power of habit.

The EU is a money gobbling monstrosity-the UK must run from this monster......

Britain, run from Merkel and her cronies as far and as fast as you can. Very grim times are ahead for Europe, and its largely their own making.

What has happened is that in 2004, before Eastern European countries entered, British workers had rising incomes and the govt services were expanding. Now, averages wages are falling - comments

Damned Eastern Europeans were responsible for the Global Financial Crisis, too, I suppose?

Workers have seen their real wages suffer over the past decade, but the economists at the LSE’s centre for economic performance said the cause was the deep recession that began in 2008, rather than the more than tripling in immigrants from other EU countries between 1995 and 2005.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/may/11/eu-migrants-had-no-negative-effect-on-uk-wages-says-lse

The EU is a money gobbling monstrosity

Perhaps, but I'm not sure it's even in the same league as some UK government departments. If we leave, we can probably look forward to a few more billion pound IT failures.

"The surplus of cheap labour in the UK has meant the creation of 1000s of businesses in the UK that wouldn't be viable without EU freedom of movement. "

Ridiculous. Cheaper wages are BAD for an economy. High wages are GOOD for an economy. Workers are consumers. If they don't have money to spend, private demand falls, and so does economic growth overall.

To say that falling average worker wages -- as has happened since the Eastern countries have been admitted -- is a good thing simply beggars belief. Sorry, the trickle-down narrative has become a bad joke....unless you're the 1%.

"these are high skilled middle class British jobs filled by British workers."

Not for long. The plumbing business has already been handed over to foreigners willing to live in communal tenements, with 1 toilet per 6 workers. That's exactly how the supply-siders want it: a race to the bottom for the middle class, and a hoarding of Panama-bound profits for the super-duper wealthy.

When my Japanese friends go to London they rarely see native Brits anymore-it's true most of them have left due to the tsunami of immigration......

Tenements? If they are lucky that is! I know of immigrants living in garages and sheds, the only water is via a hosepipe ! But what does PM Cameron know of this?

To say that falling average worker wages -- as has happened since the Eastern countries have been admitted -- is a good thing simply beggars belief.

The LSE has debunked the immigrants driving down wages myth. But what does the alma mater to eighteen nobel laureates know?

@itsonlyrocknroll

Why a competitor? In which field, there is a case in financial services, balance of payments (MEI) is the yard stick that that proves Great Britain is EU number one market place, without fear or favor . he commission is huffing and puffing, trade will carry on regardless.

I would say the pharmaceutical and the auto industry are two sectors that Europe would like to see move to the EU. For some businesses it might be more profitable to restrict Britain's competitiveness in Europe than to continue trading in the UK market.

@JeffLee

Ridiculous. Cheaper wages are BAD for an economy. High wages are GOOD for an economy. Workers are consumers. If they don't have money to spend, private demand falls, and so does economic growth overall.

You're attacking a strawman JeffLee. What you're saying might make sense when plotted on a graph in an economics textbook but you're ignoring the realities of business. There isn't enough profit in the cockle picking trade to raise wages to £12-15 an hour. If the UK leaves the EU, these low skilled jobs will completely disappear, along with the few high skilled jobs they support.

That's exactly how the supply-siders want it: a race to the bottom for the middle class, and a hoarding of Panama-bound profits for the super-duper wealthy.

So what is your answer Jeff? Shall we nationalise the means of production and remove the profit motive? It seems like you're dislike of 'foreigners' (they are in fact European citizens) seems to be turning you into a socialist, a protectionist, or possibly worse.

The plumbing business has already been handed over to foreigners

Plumbing is not a highly skilled job in my book. Plumbing only came to be viewed as a 'good' job in Britain because plumbers used to be able to charge eyewatering sums for doing very simple work (if they even bothered to show up). I remember the old days. When I say high skilled jobs, I mean those which genuinely require degree level education.

Big business and banks and multi- nationals are all for Remain for the furtherment of their own money grubbing capitalist agenda. The elite will live on in their gated communities while the mass of the people lives with a dictated EU policy and side by side with an ever-increasing populace with a 7th century Muslim mindset.