Bush, Brown turn up heat on Myanmar

Sunday 18th May, 06:30 PM JST

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Nyein_Chan at 12:04 PM JST - 18th May

Part I: Terrain is Quite Clear but One More Thing to Do

Some might want to point out that the Burmese military government should accept the international aid workers even if it does NOT accept the U.S warships and military aircrafts. Since the referendum is over on Saturday, it is more likely to invite the international aid workers now than before. But we need to know the and reason to see if we can find a workable solution.

The constitutional referendum was scheduled (and held) on May 10. The Burmese military government wants the draft constitution ratified. Its opponents want the draft rejected (if possible, the referendum disrupted). U.S, France and Western countries support the regime opponents. U.S House of Representatives went so far as taking jurisdiction over the draft constitution of another country and passing a concurrent resolution (H. Con. Res. 317), calling the Administration and UN to reject the referendum (process) and draft constitution (outcome).

The military government’s possible concern was that its opponents might covertly plan to start the protests, politicizing the sufferings of the cyclone victims and capitalizing the presence of international aid workers. An AP report DOES confirm the existence of this concern. During the Saturday tour diplomats tried at every chance to tell the accompanying Myanmar minister that the government should provide more international aid access, [Bernard] Delpuech, [head of the European Commission Humanitarian Office in Yangon] said. He said the answer was: "Yes, they're willing, but they don't want the people who will create more problems." (Aung Hla Tun, Reuters, May 17, 2008, 8:15 a.m. New York Time, via Washington Post Website) In fact, the regime opponents took their first step by spreading the news that the public is angry at the military government and maligning the latter by accusing it of slow response. David Montero predicts in Christian Science Monitor that “Disaster May Loosen Junta’s Grip in Burma” (May 8, 2008)
Nyein_Chan at 12:04 PM JST - 18th May

Part II: Terrain is Quite Clear but One More Thing to Do (less than 1500 characters each)

The presence of U. S and France military in the Burmese territory if possible and (already) in the neighboring countries would encourage the regime opponents and discourage the regime. The regime opponents want to encourage its activists and their sympathizers with the news that ‘Americans are coming!!! Americans are coming!!!’ ‘Americans are HERE!!’ coincidentally timing with the U.S, France, Britain navy warships, the buzzing military aircrafts and helicopters. Romesh Ratnesar asks in Time magazine “Is it Time to Invade Burma?” (May 10, 2008) (A Burmese government has been overthrown with rumors. One of Burma’s earlier dynasties collapsed due to rumors that its enemy troops Sagaw Karens were marching to the capital.) Gordon Lubold reports that in Mae Saout, Thailand, “thousands of Burmese exiles and refugees were excited when they saw a US helicopter flying above them on Saturday…” (Gordon Lubold, U.S. helicopters cause stir in Thai town on Burma border, Yahoo News, Washington, D.C, May 12, 2008, 4:00 a.m.; Christopher Johnson, Mae Sot, Thailand Christian Science Monitor, U.S. helicopters cause stir in Thai town on Burma border: In Mae Sot, home to many Burmese exiles and refugees, two helicopters stopped unannounced during a survey of the area, via ABC News)

Now that the referendum is over, the Burmese military government would more likely accept the international relief workers than before, but we need to do one more thing.
Nyein_Chan at 12:04 PM JST - 18th May

Part III: Terrain is Quite Clear but One More Thing to Do

What do the regime opponents plan to do with the presence of international aid workers (and possibly media) in Burma? They know that the draft constitution will be ratified because it is the only way out of the ongoing political gridlock; that the public is going to vote for it so that they can move forward. If the regime opponents plan to take advantage of the presence of international aid workers, thinking that the military government dare NOT to disperse the protestors as it did last year and in 1988, or that if it did, it is going to face the enormous global outrage and UN Security Council’s punitive resolution and pressure, then what would the Burmese military leaders do?

Of course, in the name of reason of the state and Hobbesian dilemma, they are going to order the army and police to disperse the protestors and to shoot if judged necessary. Legally, they can do so because the emergency law is imposed for a natural disaster and legitimately because the U.S National Guards and Police did shoot some people dead in New Orleans after Katrina. The Burmese military leaders are going to and have to take a decisive action, whatever it means, even if the international aid workers are there and if they have to face later the global condemnation and UN Security Council’s punitive resolution, falling into the trap of their opponents’ infamous but unpragmatic strategy of regime change by UN Security Council’s resolutions.
Nyein_Chan at 12:05 PM JST - 18th May

Part IV: Terrain is Quite Clear but One More Thing to Do

One more thing can be and need to be done in order to make the Burma’s political climate less poisonous and make its risk-averse leaders more willing to allow the international aid workers in. The Western governments will have to sternly tell its opponents not to take advantage of the presence of aid workers and not to make, during the relief operations, another attempt at people’s power revolution, and so doing could harm the international aid workers. Better yet, the Western governments can sternly tell the regime opponents what the consequences would be. The regime opponents have lost a lot of ground in Burma; they are relying mostly on their state/non-state supporters and sympathetic media in the West for their cause; therefore, they will most likely take their worthy allies’ position into consideration if such position is clearly and sincerely taken. On the other hand, the regime opponents might have never intended to take advantage of the presence of the international aid workers and make another attempt at the regime change by people’s power revolution. (I am just giving them a way out without losing face, in case they miss.) Thus, on their own accord, the regime opponents will NOT make another attempt at the regime change by people’s power revolution for the sake of their fellow Burmese cyclone victims, not due to position of their Western allies.
Nyein_Chan at 12:05 PM JST - 18th May

Part V: Terrain is Quite Clear but One More Thing to Do

What if the West’s warnings are not serious or taken seriously and the regime opponents would nonetheless capitalize on the presence of international aid workers and make another attempt at people’s power revolution? The Burmese government will, euphemistically speaking, restore law and order even at the presence/risk of the international aid workers and even at the face of the severe consequences later.

So, if we can get one more thing done and I think we need to, I am pretty sure (not absolutely sure though) that the Burmese military government will invite the international aid workers so that their people could be helped faster and more effectively with better technology and more specialized knowledge. On the other hand, given the sparse knowledge of the international aid workers on local situation, like sending biscuits to storm victims and bringing in malaria drugs for the population in our delta region where the malaria has seldom taken root, the Burmese government might think that it is better to rely upon the domestic manpower. (I am just giving them a way out without losing face, in case they miss.) Nonetheless, if the West can somehow guarantee that the regime opponents won’t take advantage of the presence of the international aid workers and make another attempt at the regime change by people’s power revolution, I think that it is better to have more helping hands and, hopefully, less negative media coverage.
Triumvere at 01:13 PM JST - 18th May

When dictators and autocrats rig up phoney elections, why do they always give themselves ridiculous numbers?

99% participation with 97% of the vote for the new constitution?

They are smart enought to know that "100%" will imediately give the game away, but why do they think that ~99% will fool anyone?

Why not pick, say, 73% or something similar; skeptics won't be fooled, but atleast the numbers are possible, if not plausable.
jeancolmar at 02:50 PM JST - 18th May

There is no question that the regime in Burma has got to be overthrown and the military scum responsible for outrages against their people should be given fair and impartial trials and if found guilty executed as humanely as possible so that they cannot ever have a chance to get back into power.

This has to be done by the Burmese people themselves. Any outside military threats like Bush's and Brown's is going to make matters worse. As soon as there is threat of invasion the Burmese will rally around their government. Patriotism is like that, and everyone has it.

The best we can do is support human rights in Burma.
apecNetworks at 05:15 PM JST - 18th May

Correct any errors

Regional jurisdiction over the Myanmar/Burma situation should first/foremost be addressed by Myanmar and ASEAN. If the scope of the disaster is beyond the ability of the two, they can petition the UN for assistance. Myanmar/Burma is a developing country and the standards of addressing the disaster must be at the home country's/regional standards, not G-8 standards. Unless the UN is now the defacto world governing body, ASEAN/Myanmar(Burma) should try to address the disaster by their own means first. ASEAN protocols take precedent - correct me if other documents take precedent.
Triumvere at 07:16 PM JST - 18th May

"ASEAN/Myanmar(Burma) should try to address the disaster by their own means first."

But they simply aren't trying. The Junta does not care if hundreds of thousands die. Even if they were trying, they don't have the capability to deal with the situation. They will never "petition" for assistance because they would rather let their people die than show any weakeness or allow international powers access.

This talk of "regualtions", "precedent" and "regional standards" is all very abstract and idealized. It doesn't work in the real world. In the real world, the Burmese are dying.

Tell me this: Why is Myanmar considered a "sovereign nation" when its government is a tyrrany rules by force and against the will of the people? Does not sovereignty come from the people?

Why do you endevor to treat the junta as if it were a legitmate government?
smithinjapan at 07:40 PM JST - 18th May

I am pretty much dead-against any invasions on sovereign soil, but I have to say these guys are pushing me to the brink of wishing for one. The only difference is, what I would be pushing for is not an illegal regime change or anything, but something to push past the idiots blocking the help of those suffering. This cannot be compared to Iraq; in Iraq there was no natural disaster prompting world co-ordination and help, and it was never the people of Iraq the US had in mind when they went in. Here, in this case, we have the world sick of sitting on the sidelines and hoping the Junta will let them in to HELP PEOPLE! As such, the Junta is effectively killing off its own population in the country by doing nothing but trying to keep a very superficial hold on things.

I'm not saying an invasion is needed.... but the threat of one, and they are very scared of the idea, might have to carry with it a little more grit than words so the Junta realizes how much trouble it's in. As I've said before, they have utterly screwed themselves here.... I have no doubt in less than a week we'll see them asking for international aid workers to enter 'monitored' territory... not because they give a rat's a$$ for their citizens, but because they know it's that or relinquish power completely. I just hope it goes step further and they are still condemned.
apecNetworks at 07:25 AM JST - 19th May

**To Triumvere **

http://www.aseansec.org/21536.htm

I have kept tabs on ASEAN over the years, and they consider all their members as "allies" moving together for a better tomorrow even when things may not be "ideal".
TrueMyanmar at 08:32 AM JST - 19th May

Nyein Chan is likely to be a Myanmar Government Servant hoping to get favors from the Generals. He wrote a lot of rubbish. e.g.,

== "I would rather let them (Myanmar Victims) take the chance with some cholera, diarrhea, etc. than letting the Burmese military government confront with 4000 US marines." ==

He is just cruel and unconcerned.

== "Where do you think our ancestors had, well into the second half of the 20th century, disposed the corpses of their loved ones if the cremation is unaffordable or the burial is unfeasible? " ==

The burial was always possible for Myanmars who passed way in the past. Throwing away bodies into the rivers must be very rare or his own imagination.

Nyein Chan also praised the Generals for making 4 right decisions.

== 1. Cease-fire agreements with armed ethnic groups, ending five-decade-long armed conflicts. ==

Actually, it is just like having 2 armed rulers in those frontier regions. (Wrong Decision no. 1)

== 2. Decision to move the capital to further inland, saving the national government apparatus from sea-bound natural and not-so-natural dangers and possibly freeing up the future, military-influenced but elected governments from the danger of people’s power revolutions. ==

Everyone in Yangon knows what happened in the first 24 hours after the Cyclone. The new capital Nay Pyi Daw ws not afected by the cyclone. But Yangon looked like a deserted city without any signs of Government Servants and soldiers. Where was the 'un-affected' national government apparatus? What were the un-harmed Generals and Ministers doing on Day One? What is wrong with ".... the people’s power revolutions"?

== 3. The decision to hold constitutional referendum on May 10, 2008 throughout the country except the 47 townships the Cyclone Nagris severely ravaged.

This is very wrong, selfish, irresponsible and immoral decision, diverting manpower resources to the Referendum which should have been postponed to a later date for the whole ountry.

== 4. The decision to reject any foreign troops entering Burma even in the context of cyclone relief operations.

Again, it is the worst decision of all, causing prolonged and unnecessary sufferings and deaths.

Nyein Chan still maintained "The first and the second decisions have been proven to be right and beneficial to Burma and her people. So shall the third and the fourth."

That is why I wrote earlier, his messages are rubbish, trying to cheat people inside and outside Myanmar.

Please Free Burma from living Hell.

True Myanmar
superesonator at 11:43 AM JST - 19th May

In the wake of the Katrina response, Bush is an unlikely person to point a finger.

Moderator: References to Katrina are not relevant to the Myanmar discussion.
Triumvere at 03:33 PM JST - 19th May

to apecNetworks

I am aware of ASEAN, no doubt they are applying pressure to attempt to get Myanmar to act on the current crisis.

However, regardless of what ASEAN may "consider" its members to be, I do not see anything resembling Myanmar "moving toward a better tomorrow." Infact, I see no progress at all.

If you have an example of such progress, I'd like to hear it. If not, then I'd ask you to recognize that the condition of Myanmar isn ot merely "not ideal", but, rather, abyssmal.
yakity at 08:19 PM JST - 19th May

Please help the victims of natural and un-natural disasters and save human and animal lives. This is no time for politics or power.