Charting a road to 270, Clinton sets out most efficient path

"I have states that no other Republican would do well in that I think I’m going to win,” Trump told The Washington Post this past week. “But I don’t want to name those states.”

Of course, imaginary states.

Actually, he has been doing very well in States that were straight Blue or that Republicans have had more difficult times winning in the past.

The states include, among others like Oregon and New Hampshire... — Ohio — Florida — Virginia — Minnesota — Michigan — Pennsylvania — Wisconsin — New York — Maine — California

So, I guess no mention of the $375.000. Khan payoff by her Clinton Foundation or no challenge of ANYTHING regarding Hillary. The warmongers rule!!!!

Right, so I had a look at the states Lizz mentioned.

RCP polling data suggests that not even one (!!) of those states will go to Trump as it currently stands. Now, I know, it's only polling, or too early to call (or "MSM" if you want to wear the tin foil hat...), but I would love to know where Trump or Republicans get their data from that would suggest otherwise.... all ears.

The bookies are offering 2/1 on Trump winning in November. Clinton is 4/11. The bookies got the Brexit wrong and the last UK election wrong.

I wonder how many Trump voters here are willing to put their money where their mouths are. 2/1 in a two-horse race is a decent bet considering how we are constantly reminded how the electorate doesn't trust Clinton.

Any takers?

Probably the narrowest scenario is the states Romney won + Ohio and Florida (which Bush won)....and

Pennsylvania (the one Republicans don't win)....but if Trump gets PA it is game over, probably a 40 state blowout. He was competitive in all those a few weeks ago and the national polls are starting to come back so it looks like the ship has been steadied if it was ever encountering stormy seas at all.

More predictions, Lizz?

A lot can change between now and November, there are a lot more people that are skeptical of Clinton, support Trump, but because he's so polarizing don't want to say or admit it and then when that curtain is closed, vote for him or as we call them, the "silent majority." Happened in 1980, so it could possibly happen again, you never know.

Trump has an amazing new performance planned where he acts like the corporate suits in Miracle on 34th Street and fires Santa Claus while wearing his shiny new Purple Heart badge. The centerpiece of his speeches will be coaching minors on the best way to call out 'bitch.' He may also introduce his cabinet picks, surprising everyone by bringing out the surviving members of Monty Python.

Polls within the last week:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016

Battleground states:

State -- Clinton -- Trump -- Margin of Error

Georgia -- 41% -- 38% -- 4.0

Michigan -- 43% -- 32% -- 4.0

Florida -- 43% -- 39% -- 4.4

North Carolina -- 42% -- 46% -- 5.0

Pennsylvania -- 47% -- 34% -- 4.8

Arizona -- 45% -- 42% -- 3.0

Nevada -- 41% -- 40% -- 4.0

Clinton doesn't need to do anything, just let Chucky keep talking

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.

Polls are only meaningful if executed honestly, otherwise they are meaningless and subject to dramatic collapse within the period of a few days.

Agreed, as of now, they don't mean that much at this point and time. They will continue to change and gap will narrow.

The partisan breakdown in the country as measured by Gallup is roughly 29% - Democrat, 28% Republican and the rest Independent or non-affiliated. Polls like Reuters/Ipsos that weight the average 45% Democrat to 36% Republican are pure idiocy. How these media hacks can look themselves in the mirror and make such widely varying off the wall predictions is a mystery.

That's why ya have to get an aggregate of different polls in order to minimize the effect of one single poll

LizzAUG. 07, 2016 - 05:24PM JST

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.

Polls are only meaningful if executed honestly, otherwise they are meaningless and subject to dramatic collapse within the period of a few days.

So by your own admission any poll that shows Trump doing well doesn't mean a whole lot.

wipeoutAUG. 07, 2016 - 08:21PM JST

The main thing is, he's a straight talker and not a bit PC.

Yes, definitely the most important qualifications for the job. Competence, integrity, sanity, experience and all that stuff is way overrated.

So by your own admission any poll that shows Trump doing well doesn't mean a whole lot.

The numbers I quoted were for past polls. Reuters has been caught with all kinds of data manipulation so it could have been rejiggered again but the averages have been +10 or +15 which isn't worth anyone's time.

Personally I look most closely at the USC/LA Times daily tracking survey. It is still the exact same who developed the RAND Continuous poll that are running it, just rebranded for the Times. And their final numbers for 2012 were Obama 49.5%, Romney 46.1%j, within .5 of the final spread.

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Trump’s goal going forward should be simple–make sure Hillary gets as much TV time as possible. The more people watch her the more concerned they will become about her mental and physical health. This is not a stable person.The conversation has even started to focus on whether or not she is having seizures on camera (post concussion syndrome).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJjHTeo6mVw

Who in their right mind could support Clintons? Bill was impeached. And she herself continues to lie. What is truth and what are the deceptions in her platform?

I support the Clintons. They are a good choice for moderates, especially those like me who lean left on domestic issues and right on international issues. Obviously she's qualified for the job, more so than any candidate from either party. I trust that her Supreme Court nominee will have views closer to my own. Having Bill there as an ambassador of sorts can help, especially overseas. She's respected as a voice for women worldwide. She has the support of the politicians that I like, she's pro gun control, and she represents a lot of different types of Americans making her views more inclusive.

I could go on.

The main thing is, he's a straight talker and not a bit PC.

Exactly, but he's not going around or the GOP in teaching people how to conduct themselves in life and in the public according to their standards.

So by your own admission any poll that shows Trump doing well doesn't mean a whole lot.

Actually, it means a lot and probably there are a lot more that agree and like Trump, but refuse to let that be known. Again, same scenario in 1980. It doesn't matter what the establishment want on either side, it matters what the voters want and this is the year of the outsider and Trump and Sanders are the outsiders. Sanders conceded to Hillary and Trump refuses to concede to either Hillary or the GOP.

But knowing how this admin. has been working and the shenanigans they have pulled over the last 7 1/2 years, I wouldn't put anything past them when it comes to the fiddling with the numbers. ironically, it's funny that almost every time in this admin. when there is a scandal of some sort, the Jobs report is always released, timely? Coincidence? Hmmm... Obama is about to leave (thankfully) and in keeping with his decent approval ratings, it would make perfect sense to make sure that all of his endeavors equally reflect this and anything bad, anything at all, especially in this political climate given the fact that Hillary is up against Trump, these people will go through all the way and won't leave any stone unturned in order to retain the White House.

Yes, definitely the most important qualifications for the job. Competence, integrity, sanity, experience and all that stuff is way overrated.

Does Hillary posses any of these traits?

Exactly, but he's not going around or the GOP in teaching people

Yes, he's been a real straight shooter. Nothing but an snti-PC straigh shooter, like the birther claims, 9/11 muslim cheering, and the Iran ransom video.

"Yes, definitely the most important qualifications for the job. Competence, integrity, sanity, experience and all that stuff is way overrated."

"Does Hillary posses any of these traits?"

Clinton Competence - reasonable. She's made mistakes. Integrity - poor. She's dodgy. Sanity - sane Experience - huge.

Trump Competence - Can't keep his trash-mouth shut causing all kinds of confusion, back-pedaling and leaving others to clean up his mess. Contradicts himself constantly. Has very limited knowledge of crucial issues. Integrity - insults the disabled. Enough said. Sanity - probably sane but appeals to the insane, the stupid and the bigoted. Experience - TV celeb, businessman with some successes but multiple bankruptcies.

Clinton Competence - reasonable. She's made mistakes. Integrity - poor. She's dodgy. Sanity - sane Experience - huge.

You forgot to mention, a certified liar and schemer, No wonder 70% of the American people don't trust her, but at least HER fanbase does, so she has some support....I guess.

Trump Competence - Can't keep his trash-mouth shut causing all kinds of confusion, back-pedaling and leaving others to clean up his mess.

Hillary and Obama have done the same, remember Benghazi and Susan Rice, but it was a video....yeah, right...

Contradicts himself constantly. Has very limited knowledge of crucial issues.

Hillary flat out lied last week on Chris Wallace's show on live TV, About the time when she came under heavy sniper fire in Bosnia, but then, we found out, it wasn't true, but great headlines. I was astounded at her last rally, (she at least for once admitted the truth) at how she wants to raise taxes on the Middle Class, I really appreciated her honesty for once and that was a very crucial and critical issue.

Integrity - insults the disabled. Enough said. Sanity - probably sane but appeals to the insane, the stupid and the bigoted. Experience - TV celeb, businessman with some successes but multiple bankruptcies.

Yeah, this is true, but at least he didn't screw the tax payers as a public servant and yet, still most Americans trust him when it comes to the economy.

As a Politico headline summed it up a couple weeks ago : "Hillary's too fake. Donald's too real." An authenticity trap, maybe. But I do think voters are going to go with the candidate that they like and can feel is genuinely open to hearing their concerns.

@Bass

I said her integrity is poor. She's dodgy. That's clear. Can you explain what 'certified liar' means? That's pure babble.

Can you point to evidence that "most Americans" trust Trump with the economy? You use the word 'most' in very strange ways. You tell us how much Obama is hated by 'the people' but 'most Americans' ( I'll define that as over 50% ) have a favorable view of him.

You're a journalist writing for one of the most respected papers in the English-speaking world. Back this up.

Which one you guys want to boss USA?

Trump. His business experience can reduce the debt and grow the flat lined economy. The Clintons are both liars and do not represent the majority ethically.

I'm surprised more Trump supporters don't like the BLM movement with their anti-pc straight talk.

@lost: I get same poll result as yours. Thanks. Also, the poll of total final Several other type polls,, Clinton is almost 11 % higher than Trump for Nov. Outcome. How is your research?

Obviously Clinton is no prize either and under any other circumstances would be the bumbling losing candidate. It should have been a shoo in for any Republican candidate. However this time with the RNC bakers' dozen of losers as candidates it was going to be just a matter of degree.

While trapped in some lies, she looks at least sane and the only option to not start WWIII is quite an achievement by serial liar Trump and his Trump shirts. You can't fault her on lying if Trump's lies are being ignored and he can't stop. He reminds me of the scene in The Dead Zone when the president sends the code to launch the nukes.

Trump is the worst candidate ever conceived by any metric, and anyone still supporting Trump I would question their sanity. His support is as strong an indicator as ever that the USA's days are far behind them.

“The last two elections have given Democrats an electoral path for victory,” said Clinton campaign adviser John Anzalone. “And our strategy is to efficiently use our resources to lock down the support we need to reach 270 electoral votes.”

How about a direct popular vote? No good?

"After a bump in support for Clinton in national polls that followed the Democratic convention and tracked Trump’s recent gaffes, the number of states where Clinton will invest her time and money may get smaller than 11"

Nobody goes to see Hillary, her rallys are empty. Trump's are packed, plus he dominates her on social media. The polls are bullshit. Get ready for a Trump landslide as Hillary implodes..

Trump is very popular with uneducated white the report say.

Typical. When the polls show Trump is doing well, its the end of Clinton and all that. When the polls show Trump is trailing the polls are rubbish.

Ah, some people....

I don't care if Hillary is leading by 20 points in the mainstream polls, she's not going to be elected.