Pretty interesting post there tkoind. I agree with the analysis in the first paragraph, but after that I think you have somewhat lost the plot. Giving the recent history of Afghanistan, I doubt whether US intervention after the Soviets had been kicked out would have achieved much. Then again, if the West had more strongly supported Ahmad Shah Massoud, things might have turned out differently. If he had not been assassinated by Al Queda, the Lion of Panjshir might have been a strong unifying force.
With regard to Pakistan,I don't think the West should expect much in the way of serious support. The leaders of Pakistan who share podiums with the West have little influence in the tribal areas. The country also has some pretty significant domestic political issues that prevent it being a more reliable puppet of Western interests.
Not US intervention post Soviet War, but US funding and support for the victorious parties. It is true that there would have been divisions within Afghanistan no matter what. But the vacuum that allowed the Taliban to come to power could have been overted with funding, aid and support even for regional leadership by multiple parties.
But instead the US just forgot about Afghanistan and that led to the downfall of the more rational warlords in favor of Taliban who came mostly from the refugee camps of guess where? Peshawar in Pakistan!
It was the Taliban with help by Bin Laden who removed the only other viable leaders and set in motion the events that enabled 911.
We did the same to Shiite rebels in Iraq after the first gulf war leaving them to be mopped up by Sunni rivals. And we do the same again and again all around the world. We choose someone to fight our battle then when we win we drop them to get by on their own.
Iran reaps what it sows - it helps train Hezbollah guerilla tactics against organized military. And Iran threatening to conduct military operations inside Pakistani soil would be hypocritical.
lostrune2. But this would apply to nearly any nation crying foul for this. Iran, Pakistan, the US. Nations use militants to achieve political objectives. We've seen it again and again. Then scream foul when someone else does it to them. Lesson is that this kind of sword has two very sharp edges and none of these nations crying foul are innocent of using the same tactics.
Oh boy, another conspiracy theorist. Should the US suddenly be gone the next day, who would you place the blame on next? Isreal? and if they were eliminated off the map, who would you blame next? The UK? and if they were gone who next?
Eventually everyone has to look in the mirror to figure out where the true blame lies.
tkoind2: SuperLib. I have to disagree. 911 happened because we empowered Islamic militants with money and weapons and gave them the ability to achieve their first major victory against a super power. Then we followed it up by not being there to help Afghans make a real government when the war was over. All of that resulted in blowback that allowed the Taliban to come to power and gave Al Qaida and others free license to develop camps and prepare attacks.
I understand what you're saying, but I don't think your argument is very compelling. Staying in Afghanistan would have had another series of unintended consequences that you're not giving any weight to, and not only that you seem to assume uniting Afghanistan could have been done when no one has been able to do it to date. But reasonable people can disagree.
Anyway, this article is about Iran. Perhaps you have some information about Iran that you can share.
I doubt the US or UK had any direct influence on this. Pakistan? Why would they? Got any evidence? Can you show any links? I think the Iranians are just screaming to deflect attention from the fact that they have people in their country with grievences against the government that are so great that they will resort to violence to settle the matter. After all, why would any Iranian want to attack the duly elected regime?
Iran is trying to take people's eye off the ball again. I have a friend who is Iranian and lived through and initially supported the revolution but later had to flee. His comment was that the American response to the revolution solidified Iranians behind the radical clerics and strengthened their hand (as they felt abandoned and attacked by the US). If the US was dumb enough to try to foment a revolution this way it will only drive the Iranian people into the arms of their leaders even if they don't support them.
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timorborder at 01:35 PM JST - 20th October
Pretty interesting post there tkoind. I agree with the analysis in the first paragraph, but after that I think you have somewhat lost the plot. Giving the recent history of Afghanistan, I doubt whether US intervention after the Soviets had been kicked out would have achieved much. Then again, if the West had more strongly supported Ahmad Shah Massoud, things might have turned out differently. If he had not been assassinated by Al Queda, the Lion of Panjshir might have been a strong unifying force.
With regard to Pakistan,I don't think the West should expect much in the way of serious support. The leaders of Pakistan who share podiums with the West have little influence in the tribal areas. The country also has some pretty significant domestic political issues that prevent it being a more reliable puppet of Western interests.
kinniku at 01:50 PM JST - 20th October
Unsurprisingly, you have that backwards.
Kapuna at 01:55 PM JST - 20th October
Hope that the Jundallah will be able to do some damage to the nuclear facilities in Iran, not the peaceful ones of course.
Yelnats at 02:13 PM JST - 20th October
Poor poor Iran. I feel so sorry for the govt. there.
tkoind2 at 02:13 PM JST - 20th October
timorborder.
Not US intervention post Soviet War, but US funding and support for the victorious parties. It is true that there would have been divisions within Afghanistan no matter what. But the vacuum that allowed the Taliban to come to power could have been overted with funding, aid and support even for regional leadership by multiple parties.
But instead the US just forgot about Afghanistan and that led to the downfall of the more rational warlords in favor of Taliban who came mostly from the refugee camps of guess where? Peshawar in Pakistan!
It was the Taliban with help by Bin Laden who removed the only other viable leaders and set in motion the events that enabled 911.
We did the same to Shiite rebels in Iraq after the first gulf war leaving them to be mopped up by Sunni rivals. And we do the same again and again all around the world. We choose someone to fight our battle then when we win we drop them to get by on their own.
lostrune2 at 02:44 PM JST - 20th October
Iran reaps what it sows - it helps train Hezbollah guerilla tactics against organized military. And Iran threatening to conduct military operations inside Pakistani soil would be hypocritical.
tkoind2 at 02:55 PM JST - 20th October
lostrune2. But this would apply to nearly any nation crying foul for this. Iran, Pakistan, the US. Nations use militants to achieve political objectives. We've seen it again and again. Then scream foul when someone else does it to them. Lesson is that this kind of sword has two very sharp edges and none of these nations crying foul are innocent of using the same tactics.
yabits at 03:23 PM JST - 20th October
It's so much easier to "blame the other guy" when the other guy issues a statement taking credit for the action.
yabits at 03:25 PM JST - 20th October
And so does every nation.
lostrune2 at 04:17 PM JST - 20th October
tkoind2 & yabits,
Oh, of course other nations do it all the time. Just pointing out that it's current Iran's turn, particularly with suicide-bombing.
HonestDictator at 07:04 PM JST - 20th October
Oh boy, another conspiracy theorist. Should the US suddenly be gone the next day, who would you place the blame on next? Isreal? and if they were eliminated off the map, who would you blame next? The UK? and if they were gone who next?
Eventually everyone has to look in the mirror to figure out where the true blame lies.
tanglewood at 07:29 PM JST - 20th October
I fear conspiracy whackos from my own country more than Iran.
SuperLib at 08:25 PM JST - 20th October
I understand what you're saying, but I don't think your argument is very compelling. Staying in Afghanistan would have had another series of unintended consequences that you're not giving any weight to, and not only that you seem to assume uniting Afghanistan could have been done when no one has been able to do it to date. But reasonable people can disagree.
Anyway, this article is about Iran. Perhaps you have some information about Iran that you can share.
ca1ic0cat at 08:58 PM JST - 20th October
I doubt the US or UK had any direct influence on this. Pakistan? Why would they? Got any evidence? Can you show any links? I think the Iranians are just screaming to deflect attention from the fact that they have people in their country with grievences against the government that are so great that they will resort to violence to settle the matter. After all, why would any Iranian want to attack the duly elected regime?
usaexpat at 11:22 PM JST - 20th October
Iran is trying to take people's eye off the ball again. I have a friend who is Iranian and lived through and initially supported the revolution but later had to flee. His comment was that the American response to the revolution solidified Iranians behind the radical clerics and strengthened their hand (as they felt abandoned and attacked by the US). If the US was dumb enough to try to foment a revolution this way it will only drive the Iranian people into the arms of their leaders even if they don't support them.