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JAPAN NEWS AND DISCUSSION

Iran's supreme leader orders probe of election fraud

World Jun. 15, 2009 - 07:51PM JST ( 8 )

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8 Comments

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SuperLibJun. 15, 2009 - 08:46PM JST

How's it going to end?
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yabitsJun. 15, 2009 - 09:19PM JST

This is an amazing turn of events, especially since Khamenei declared the results as divinely ordained.

Left to their own, the Iranian young people (over 60% of the country is under 30) will eventually reject the hardliners and push the country towards greater liberalization and better ties with the West.
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goodDonkeyJun. 15, 2009 - 10:57PM JST

I find it quite intriguing yabits. It would appear that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is fallible and that may be the least of his problems. Although I suspect that Iran will end up with Ahmadinejad in the end and everything will settle down. I think that would be the beginning of some undercurrents that either spell either continued unrest or the liberalization of the theocracy unless stark overtures are made quickly to limit the discontent. It has the underpinnings of change toward more freedoms and better relations with other countries in the world.

A certain amount of credit does go to Bush and all the previous presidents for their embargo work. The Iranian people are tired of being poor and left out of the (world) loop. I have said since the Reagan years that talking is always the best policy. You can then stand up and trash them in front of your own citizens and the world if it is warranted but then you turn around and say, "You want to talk some more, let's talk." Talking does not require giving an inch. Bravery is standing up to someone face to face; bravery is not refusing to talk.
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yabitsJun. 15, 2009 - 11:21PM JST

Excellent posting, goodDonkey.

It will be very interesting in the days and weeks ahead to see how this plays out. I suspect that someone who is not familiar to the West -- unlike former Prime Minister Mousavi -- is going to rise up out of the ranks of the people who want change in Iran and become the standard-bearer.
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MadvertsJun. 16, 2009 - 12:31AM JST

It's refreshing to see that people power is having its' day in Iran today, and that as yet - the ayatollah hasn't ordered a violent crack-down on the protesters.

The surprising U-turn from Khamenei suggests to me that they're nipping the cheeks they never kiss with firmly together over the obvious support Mousavi wielding, and the protesters blatant disregard for the serious threats on their lives made in regards to un-lawful assembly earlier.

I doubt this will un-seat Ahmedinajhad from his dubious re-election, but it looks like change will be coming sometime soon in Iran. Let's hope it isn't going to be bloody.
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SuperLibJun. 16, 2009 - 02:12AM JST

They could use the inquiry to buy time and let the protests die down, then come back in 2 weeks and confirm the results. That way they'll be more prepared to handle the protests if there are more.

The more radical angle would be for the Council to distance the Supreme Leader from Ahmadinejad and build a case saying Ahmadinejad broke the rules to manipulate the outcome and basically make him a scapegoat to placate the protesters.

It's hard to believe fraud could have been committed without the Supreme Leader's blessings. I can't say I know everything about the relationship amongst the centers of power in Iran but my guess is that Khamenei wouldn't allow an inquiry that could implicate himself. So that leaves the options of confirming the results of pinning the blame on Ahmedinajhad. I guess in the end it comes down to what can be confirmed in terms of evidence...and what can't.
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yabitsJun. 16, 2009 - 02:29AM JST

It's hard to believe fraud could have been committed without the Supreme Leader's blessings.

Well, the article you posted a reference to in another thread on the Iran issue clearly indicated that the Supreme Leader could not control things the way that people outside (or inside) of Iran might expect him to. I can easily see a pro-Ahmadinejad faction operating among some very key segments in the Iran power-structure, beyond the control of Khamenei.
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SuperLibJun. 16, 2009 - 05:48AM JST

Beyond his control, yes, but to think he could be kept out of the loop sounds pretty hard to believe. It might come down to his own level of plausible deniability.