New Greek government in race against time
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1
Antonios_M
Ganbare, Mr. Papademos. It's not easy to carry the fate of a whole country on your shoulders, but i have faith in you.
2
globalwatcher
Ganbare Greece. You can do it!
0
WilliB
globalwatcher:
Greece can do what, in your opinion?
1
Foxie
Greece can do anything it wants to. Numerous countries were off worse than Greece and are now booming. Look at Turkey next door. Greece can do the same.
-1
WilliB
Foxie:
Turkey did not join a currency union and rack up 150% GDP debt in a currency it does not control! When exactly do you suggest was Turkey "worse off" than Greece?
0
Antonios_M
Implement all the necessary reforms, privatize a part of it's public sector, open up the closed professions, invite investors from abroad and make it's economy more competitive, exploit the natural resources, take advantage of public land plots like the one in Elliniko ex-airport, abolish the stupid height limit of 27 meters for new constructions, provide the right incentives for Greek ship owners who have left Greece to return there, make a more stable taxation system, etc. Believe me, there are a lot that can be done in order to improve Greek economy.
-1
WilliB
Antonios_M:
No! Greece can not possibly dig itself out from under the mountain of debt without a default. And if the debtors agree to a default, and after that let Greek continue with the Euro (and continued German guarantees for more Greek debts), we just see a re-play of the past. And why not? What incentive to change is there if someone else picks up the tab? That is called "moral hazard".
And none of the fancy little programs you mention would change anything fundamentally in Greece. You just can not turn Greece into Germany overnight by some administrative tricks.
The only way out of the trap is a return to the Drachme, combined with a one-time radical haircut.
0
globalwatcher
Good morning, WilliB.
In response to your question above, Greece needs to go back to their own currency Drachme by leaving Euro and to continue working on haircut. It is painful but IMHO, they have no choice but defaulting.
Currently, one out of 4 Greek people is working for government (bureacrats) and is on government payroll has to be cut. Also, the retirement age from 49 has to be raised to age 67/68 yrs. old like many other countries. There are many opportunities for Greece to jump start economy once the haircut is done. I believe Euro members no longer want feeding Greece while a majority Greek wants to stay with Euro.
1
Antonios_M
Huh? 1 out of 4? Retirement age of 49? Am i missing something here or are we talking about a different country? It's true that Greece needs to reorganize it's public sector by moving some of the employees to useful positions, (for example, for every police officer who is on patrol, there are other four who stay at office doing paperwork), but noway there are people retiring at 49 or such a huge number of public employees. Yes, there are many, but definitely NOT that many. I would even dare say that the problem is not so much the number of public employees, but the fact that they are not productive enough.
Greece needs a number of changes. If these essential changes occur, i am sure that Greece can do it. As Joanna Lumley said at the end of her travel documentary about Greece: Although the days are dark for Greece at the moment and the nights are long, she will survive triumphantly to see another dawn!
0
globalwatcher
Antonio, that's what we hear from American media. So what is a true story? Is there a good weblink I can go and read on this?
2
Antonios_M
Hmm, very interesting. There are many things that you can blame Greece for, but i get the feeling that Greece has become the scapegoat of the global media lately. Let's clear some things out.
Greece's average retirement age is currently 61 and the goal for the government is to set it at 63 until 2013. Keep in mind though that some elders work illegally since the pension is not enough to make a living. As for the public employees: during the last census of public sector that occurred last year by the state, the number of public employees was counted as 768,009. If we consider that the total labor force is 4.6 millions, (or 5+ millions if we count those working illegally), then we have a percentage of 16.7% and 15.3+% of total labor force respectively. Thus, i can't see where the numbers of 23-25% come from that i often read at news sites. You can definitely blame the last government though, since the public employment share was 11.4% in 2002 and therefore, we have a tremendous increase during the last 8 years. (To make a comparison, the percentage of public employees in total workforce of Sweden and Denmark is 32%, in Norway 29%, and in the U.S.A. 16.4%).
Of course, there are MANY things that need to be done. I don't want to say that it's not Greece's fault. Of course it is, but that has to do with the way the Greek economy used to operate the last 20-30 years, and not because Greeks are lazy and opportunists.
Here are some useful links:
Results from the census of public employees in Greece (Greek only): http://apografi.gov.gr/2010/07/379
Data in PDF about public sector from OECD (English): http://129.3.20.41/eps/pe/papers/0507/0507011.pdf
Retirement ages around the world from OECD (English): http://www.oecd.org/document/47/0,3343,en_2649_34747_39371887_1_1_1_1,00.html
Comparison between Greece and USA (English): http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2011/11/how-the-united-states-is-like-and-unlike-greeceposner.html
1
globalwatcher
Thank you, Antonio. I will carefully examine all weblinks you have provided. I am sorry what Greek people have to go through in the time of financial crisis. I wish for the best for all Greek people.
Hope for Greek people
-1
WilliB
In the event, the breakup of the Euro will not be caused by Greece (which is small enough to be subsidized by the payer nations indefinetely) but by Italy, which simply is too big to bail, as much as Sarkozy and Merkel wish otherwise.
Like the NY Times put it recently: The Euro ends not with a bang, but with bunga bunga.
0
It"S ME
The euro won't end and greece leaving it will kill them.
Difference to the US dollar is that the euro was created at a time of hardship and divided cultures and opinions. The US dollar, economy, etc grew and spread over a long time from territories that had nothing. You can't compare them. Different ages and situations.
Not saying anymore as the mods are going strong today and removing most posts.
0
It"S ME
WilliB.
Since you know little actual data about the euro-zone and the current situation in each country I advise you to refrain you from giving advise to people actually living it and that are actutally affected.
Pls, stop telling europeans about what they know best, ditto for arabian nations.
-1
WilliB
Its`s ME:
Where do you get that idea from? The Euro was created in 2001; that was not a "time of hardship". And the current problems with Greece and other PIIG countries were exactly predicted by the Eurocritics then, including Milton Friedman, Wilhelm Hankel, and many other high-calibre economists.
They are proven exactly right. You can not wish for a better proof of who is correct. The Euro was a purely poilitical projects, and the politians were and are blissfully ignorant about economic facts.
0
It"S ME
WilliB.
Try to read and understand.
The USA has evolved for how long and it has had a single currency for how long? Now compare that to the Euro and the EU and how long those existed? What was there before the USA came into being, how many nations, currencies, etc, etc.
The US has had how many centuries of histories vs the millenia of europe and most were spend infighting/wars/etc.
Asia will face the same challenges as europe with a common currency, TPP, etc.
Like I said apples and oranges.
-1
WilliB
It`s ME:
The USA has a political and high labour mobility, so of course a common currency makes sense. The EU does not have these things, so a common currency is nonsensical. Google for "optimum currency area" to educate yourself.
Before the USA was unified in a bloody civil war, there was the Greyback for the Southern states, and the Greenback for the Northern states. A common currency for both while being divided would have been absurd.
Just as absurd as a common currency for countries as different as Greece and Germany.
1
It"S ME
WilliB.
You are still not using the ol noggin. You are still trying to compare apples and oranges. Not faulting you as you aren't european neither know/experienced the cultural differences, histories, etc. I The Civil war was still a war of ideologies and nothing more.
All the "phrases" you spout come from non-europeans in short people that look at a problem from the outside and are biased based on their own views and ideologies.
Same problem I see from many talking heads that talk about the ME, Asia, etc problems. This is the real problem.
Europe/Asia had to deal with invaders and invading cultures for millennia and we still preserved our identity and we aren't going to give it up soon either.
-1
WilliB
It`s ME:
I don´t know why want to insult me, and it was you who brought up the US Dollar. As you correctly say, comparing the US Dollar with the Euro is comparing apples and oranges. The USA is a political union and an optimum currency area, so of course a common currency makes sense. The EU is NOT a political union and NOT an optimum currency area, so a common currency makes NO sense.
The current distortions (debt crisis and loss of competitiveness in the weak countries, forced currency transfers from the strong countries etc.) were all predicted by the Euro critics from the start. What is happening now is proving them right.
1
Antonios_M
Thank you, global watcher. I also wish the best for my fellow Greeks and Europeans alike. I wish i could help more from my part though.
WilliB, do you realize what consequences would have to the global market a sudden dissolution of the Eurozone? Even kicking out small Greece would create chaos to the economic status quo... Now just imagine this at the scale of economies such as Italy, France, etc. The collapse of the Goldman Sachs would be a joke in comparison. I don't see any rational man wishing for something like that. As you said, i agree that creating a common currency might have been a naive mistake mainly because Europe is consisted from different countries with different economic and political background. However, the cost of taking these countries out of the Eurozone, or dissolving the common currency, is enormous.
Why not to attempt to cure the patient instead of letting him die? Yes, there were many things wrong with the common currency. But, there were some good things as well. People of Europe came as close as never before and many others found themselves enjoying a better welfare. And, YES, there are many things that need to be done and MUST be done in order to protect the economy.
-1
WilliB
Antonios_B:
Yes, I do. We are reminded of them every day by the Euro politicians.
However, since the Euro is the root cause of the problem, you have to address it. The consequences of Greece and Italy staying in the Euro are disastrous for everyone.
If you realize that have walked into a blind alley, you have to go back. You can not insist in going forward, since the "consequences of going back" are uncomfortable.
-1
WilliB
Antonios_B:
If Greece gets the Drachma back, it can get well. If it is stays within the Euro, it either dies or (in case Germany agrees to unlimited guarantees) it makes all of Europe sick.
0
Antonios_M
The goal for Greece is not to turn into Germany overnight. There are certain things that need to be done in order to make the economy more competitive and improve the balance of trade. If these reforms are implemented, Greece's economy would be sustainable and therefore a reliable member of the Eurozone.
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