Scientists connect global warming to extreme rain

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  • 0

    donkusai

    Bah, what could scientists possibly know about science? I'll wait until the real experts - the politicians and radio & TV hacks - to comment before I make my mind up on this.

    Most of the 10 outside climate experts who reviewed the papers for The Associated Press called the research sound and strong.

    Reviewed by external experts unrelated to the research? Obviously some sort of conspiracy.

  • 0

    kamonochoumei

    This is exactly what I tried to explain on another global warming article a few weeks ago. Global warming can cause some places to experience unusually severe winter weather. Some people say, "it snowed today, so global warming is a lie." But global warming can cause snow.

  • 0

    goddog

    Global warming does not cause snow.

  • 0

    donkusai

    Global warming does not cause snow.

    Agree. Despite the fact that 2 separate studies verified by independent experts totally disagree with what you say, I for one put more weight in your opinion over their so-called "scientific study".

  • 0

    arrestpaul

    Jonathan Overpeck, a University of Arizona climate scientist, who did not take part in either study, praised them as sensible and “particularly relevant given the array of extreme weather that we’ve seen this winter and stretching back over the last few years.”

    --For years scientists, relying on basic physics and climate knowledge, have said global warming would likely cause extremes in temperatures and rainfall. But this is the first time researchers have been able to point to a demonstrable cause-and-effect by using the rigorous and scientifically accepted method of looking for the “fingerprints” of human-caused climate change.

    The FIRST TIME? What do they mean when they say, "the first time"? Haven't the man-made CO2, global warming supporters been saying for the last 20 years that they had proof that humans caused global warming/climate change? Now they say they have, FOR THE FIRST TIME, found that connection.

    Sounds like more BS to support their drive for more global warming research money.

  • 0

    sabiwabi

    Bah, what could scientists possibly know about science?

    Scientists certainly know how to get their next research grant.

  • 0

    yokomoc

    Lol, only took the fifth comment for arrestpaul to make himself known...again. Paul, the reason these are the FIRST study to demonstrate cause-and-effect is because until recently, models were simply predicting what WOULD likely happen as the major effects of climate change hadn't yet kicked in. You can't demonstrate something that hasn't happened yet. These studies simply show that the effects the models have predicted for years, ARE NOW OCCURING, in fact the model predictions were less than has actually happened. This is also true for some other effects like the accelerating rate of ice melt in Greenland.

  • 0

    Smorkian

    Sounds like they've proved correlation, not causality.

  • 0

    yokomoc

    Sounds like they've proved correlation, not causality.

    How so?

  • 0

    nandakandamanda

    For a minute I thought the title said: "Scientists connect extreme rain to global warming".

  • 0

    donkusai

    arrestpaul: The FIRST TIME? What do they mean when they say, "the first time"?

    arrestpaul, simply read the sentence before the one you highlighted and you get the answer to your own question. I know this whole reading in context thing can get a little difficult sometimes, but stick with, I'm sure you'll get the hang of it.

  • 0

    yanee

    H.O.A.X.

  • 0

    donkusai

    Actually, all joking around aside, a big thumbs up to The Associated Press for lining up 10 independent experts in the field to review the studies for them. If more news agencies did this, we could have some chance of cutting through the huge amount of misinformation out there on this topic and avoid misinformed posts like the previous one by yanee.

  • 0

    yokomoc

    donkusai, the AP article's basically a rewording of the original nature article. Nothing wrong with that and I hope it continues so we get more grounded science articles on JT.

  • 0

    Smorkian

    How so?

    They've proven that when the greenhouse gases are added to the models the predicted weather changes. That's correlation. This does not show that added gases have caused these changes.

    I'm not a climate sceptic, but I am a bad science sceptic. One big way this could not be causation is that their models are crap (which is quite possibly the case as meterology is a notoriously difficult science). It's fairly easy to make a reasonable model for past data. We won't know for 50 years until today's models are checked against actual empirical data if the models are any good at prediction. Not very good for policy making but it's better science.

  • 0

    donkusai

    Smorkian: It's fairly easy to make a reasonable model for past data. We won't know for 50 years until today's models are checked against actual empirical data if the models are any good at prediction.

    A good point, but if I understand the article, the point of the research was to look back and check the models against actual empirical data, as you say. The models weren't trying to predict the future, but were being compared against real recent events. Your point is valid, and that seems to be the importance of this research - this is the beginning of the "50 years moment" you refer to, the actual correlation of the models to past events. It's still early days, so we'll have to wait for the further research the article talks about for the picture to solidify more.

    yokomoc: the AP article's basically a rewording of the original nature article.

    I was just commenting on the line in the article where it said "most of the 10 outside climate experts who reviewed the papers for The Associated Press called the research sound and strong." This seems to imply the Associated Press were responsible for bringing additional checks to verify the research.

  • 0

    samwatters

    "All those signs say global warming is here, said Xuebin Zhang, a research scientist for the Canadian government and co-author of the Northern Hemisphere study. It is affecting us in multiple directions.”

    I'm not a scientist but I remember in 1977 reading an OMNI magazine ---during a blizzard that trumps any storm seen this year---that was warning us about the coming ice age. In less than 20 years after that point, scientist started going on about the world getting hotter.

    I'm not a cynic but I'm certainly a sceptic.

  • 0

    bobobolinski

    Sam, you have a good memory, but really, OMNI? Proprietor Bob Guccione? Not really a scientific journal, was it? There were a few scare stories in the 70s in the popular press, picked up from a few conference papers - but even then, the majority scientific belief was in warming, and everything since then has supported that theory. And now we are beginning to see that the theory is not a hypothesis, but is supported by all the available evidence. Being a skeptic is fine, but sticking your head in the sand might not be such a good idea.

  • 0

    sabiwabi

    and everything since then has supported that theory.

    supported by all the available evidence.

    Only if you rely on the MSM. So take YOUR head out of the sand, and look at the evidence against man-made global warming; there is lots of it.

  • 0

    mikehuntez

    Only if you rely on the MSM.

    Not saying I go for all the panic artist's view of man made global warming but really where do you get your information from? The not so main stream media? What is that anyway? Personal blogs of your friends with their own science experiment kits? What exactly are you relying on for your information? Please share with us. I think many here would be interested in reading the "real" information.

  • 0

    GJDailleult

    I love the "scientists said in the 70's that global cooling was coming" shtick. My wife never believes me when I tell her I love her either, seems some guy in her university days said the same thing and it wasn't true. Therefore whatever I say must also not be true.

    And mikehuntez, stop pretending you don't know what the internet is and what is on it. You are on it so we all know you know about it.

  • 0

    mikehuntez

    And mikehuntez, stop pretending you don't know what the internet is and what is on it. You are on it so we all know you know about it.

    And there is a lot of BS and conspiracy that is on the internet. I'm willing to take a look at the "non so mainstream media" that sabiwabi is talking about. I'm waiting for his references.

  • 0

    yokomoc

    Only if you rely on the MSM. So take YOUR head out of the sand, and look at the evidence against man-made global warming; there is lots of it.

    List them please.

    I'm not a scientist but I remember in 1977 reading an OMNI magazine ---during a blizzard that trumps any storm seen this year---that was warning us about the coming ice age.

    Sam, the majority opinion of scientists in the seventies was for warming. The new ice age theory was given the cover of Newsweek and so got a lot of exposure, but was always a minority opinion that lost traction as more research was done and the science improved. Thing is though, it 'could' still happen in theory, because of knock-on effects of warming. The ocean oscillation systems that move heat around the earth are still a pretty grey area and freshwater from Arctic melting is expected to slow the conveyor belt. Either way it's not good.

  • 0

    sabiwabi

    What exactly are you relying on for your information? Please share with us. I think many here would be interested in reading the "real" information.

    I listen and read directly from real scientists with real PhDs showing real data. Seek and you will find. Wait to be spoon-fed and you won't learn anything.

    And there is a lot of BS and conspiracy that is on the internet.

    Indeed, the vast majority of the internet is BS; you have to find reliable sources. The MSM is almost complete BS.

    BTW, are you implying that conspiracy and BS are related? You do know that conspiracies do happen?

  • 0

    mikehuntez

    BTW, are you implying that conspiracy and BS are related? You do know that conspiracies do happen?

    If you listen and read DIRECTLY from real scientists (with PhD's even) I sure wish you could shortcut my search with some references. I don't feel like going on a wild goose chase. You cooperation would be greatly appreciated. Unless of course this is just another case of BS like the MSM you claim is.

  • 0

    donkusai

    I listen and read directly from real scientists with real PhDs showing real data. Seek and you will find. Wait to be spoon-fed and you won't learn anything.

    Translation: I got my info third-hand and the guy who told me swore it was reliable, but I don't really know where my info came from so I'll pretend that anyone could find it if they just bothered to try (cause I sure couldn't be bothered to check the facts myself).

    Translation (abridged): I don't have a clue what the "real" facts are.

  • 0

    arrestpaul

    GJDailleult - I love the "scientists said in the 70's that global cooling was coming" shtick.

    After the 70's claims of "global cooling" proved to be a scientific hoax, people found it hard to believe the CLAIMS of global warming and the CLAIMS that man-made CO2 was at fault without any proof. Believable proof, not demands that the "science is settled".

    Man-made CO2 greatly increased bewteen 1945 and the early 70's. Global tempuratures DROPPED.

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