Abe, Roh discuss N Korea's nuclear test; Japan, U.S. to take it to U.N.

See my earlier Oct 10 2006 - 01:37 post to Derukugi, but just in case you don't, you too are totally wrong on where the NK plutonium comes from and have apparently been getting your incorrect facts from Fox News.



Not "sold" - agreed to build with the help of other countries, however these reactors were NEVER COMPPLETED and fuel for them was NEVER PROVIDED to North Korea. These are publicly available facts, you know.



How could they extract fuel from reactors which were never built, ignoring the fact that light water reactors aren't even appropriate technologically for doing so? Something smells fishy in saucingland.



The plutonium used in these bombs would've come from NK's only functioning reactor at Yongbyon, which was built in 1986. Now as a history buff, I'm sure you're aware that Clinton was not president in 1986.



If you're going to blame an administration, NK's reactor was built during the Reagan presidency, and the current plutonium extraction, kicking out of the IAEA, and bomb tresting were all done under the presidency of George "I will never allow North Korea to have nuclear weapons" Bush, who was busy hunting for non-existant WMDs in Iraq while Nk was building their's.

 

This blame game is not relevant. What choices did any of the administrations have? They could a) appease North Korea, b) sanction North Korea, or c) attack North Korea. Option a) doesn't work, because North Korea will not abide by agreements that they sign. Option b) will have little effect, since the only state that can reasonably sanction North Korea is China, and they don't seem to want to do that. That leaves only option c) which neither Clinton nor Bush want to do (because of reasonable fears of WMDs in a highly populated area of the world).

Before you complain about what Clinton or Bush did to stop North Korea, answer with what you would do. Clinton's plan on giving light water reactors was reasonable (since they would be a poor device to make plutonium), but Bush's denial was also reasonable since NK broke their agreement. Giving into their demands now would be giving into blackmail.

North Korea knows what it has to do if it wants to return to being a civilized state. There is no point in discussing this further with NK, and the only thing we can do now is remove the regime or get China to enforce sanctions.

 

"The most glaring problem with your posts is above. The KEDO reactors that Clinton promised were not finished and have never become operational."

Nonsense. Where did you get that from? If they are not opearational then where did NK get the material to build a bomb? Prior to Clinton NK had been under embargo by the whole world. No one else but Slick Willy was crazy enough to sell NK reactors.

 

"Not "sold" - agreed to build with the help of other countries, however these reactors were NEVER COMPPLETED and fuel for them was NEVER PROVIDED to North Korea. These are publicly available facts, you know."

Well obviously *someone* has helped them complete them - maybe China or Pakistan. Or maybe they got the materials from somewhere else and read the assembly manual provided by the U.S. They are obviously operational since they have material for a bomb. Kim didn't pull the plutonium out of his butt.

Read up on nuclear technology, my friend:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_water_reactor

The only downside to this type of reactor for weapons production is that it has to be shut down in order to remove the spent fuel rods which become the inputs for bomb-making. I am sure if the potbellied pig wants a bomb bad enough he will shut the reactor down.

And as for not being completed - how do you know? What you mean is they weren't completed under the framework or by the west. You don't know if they were finished or not. No one knows what is going on inside NK except for maybe China and a handfull of nutjob middle east countries who are buying its weapons.

 

Most light water reactors are not particularly well suited to making Pu-239. There are two major issues you need to handle: 1) the neutron flux on U-238, and 2) the burnout of already produced Pu-239.

On #1, you want to do anything you can to maximize the neutron flux. Typically this means using natural or very low enriched fuel in a very large graphite or deuterium moderated reactor. The higher the enrichment, the lower the neutron flux because only U-235 produces significant fissions (and resultant prompt and delayed neutrons)in a thermal reactor and if you lower the concentration of U-235 (by not enriching), you need a higher neutron flux to achieve any steady state power. But you also need a better method of preventing neutron losses which means that your reactor has to be very large and often moderated by D20 (which does not absorb neutrons, unlike H20).

On #2, you want to defuel your reactor before the Pu-239 concentration stagnates at equilibrium (since Pu-239 will burn up better than U-235). This equilibrium value is very low so it requires many defuelings over a long period of time with very large reactors. Unless your reactor is explictily built to be rapidly refueled, you are not going to have a very high plutonium production rate.

The light water reactors that the US was going to give to NK could easily be designed so that moderately enriched fuel was used (which isn't suitable for nuclear weapons because they need about 90% vs. 3-7% typical for light water reactors) making the core operate at a low neutron flux, and also so that defueling was a lengthy procedure (taking weeks or months). These reactors would be good for making electricity and perhaps radioactive material for dirty bombs, but not for producing plutonium for nuclear weapons. North Korea realized this and obviously wasn't interested other than lieing to get some free reactors. North Korea did not make its plutonium from US supplied reactors. It just was not feasible in the time period they had.

 

UnagiDon is factually right in asserting this. Clinton delayed the construction of the LWRs believing that the N Korean regime was on the verge of collapse. There were many excuses given for the delays such as labor disputes and the insistence of major contractor General Electric that the Federal government provide them with insurance against contract disputes. Most of the funding was to be supplied by the S Koreans and Japanese. At the time that the Bush administration canceled the Agreed Framework and disbanded KEDO (the agency handling the LWR contract), construction had barely begun. By the way, I have just begun reading the recently published account of Jimmy Carter's role in crisis management with N Korea during the tense years of 1993-96. As you may recall, Clinton almost went to war with N Korea in 1994 over the issue of nuclear weapons development with the father of Kim Jong-il, Kim Il-Sung. The tense situation this year with N Korea's missile test in July and the nuclear test explosion last week in N Korea, is almost childsplay compared to what we faced in 1994 when everyone expected war. The title of the book is "A Moment of Crisis: Jimmy Carter, The Power of a Peacemaker, and N Korea's Nuclear Ambitions."

 

Doesn't the U.S. and many other countries hold vast stockpiles of Nuclear Weapons? It seems that the members of the U.N.security counsel do their best to keep other countries of of the elite 'Nuclear Club.' Lets face it, once you get nukes, the world community must treat you with more respect.
They've already psycho-analyzed Jong Il, although he likes for people to think 'he's crazy,' he really isn't.
He knows launching nukes or attacking Japan is SUICIDE...something he isn't interested in.
The U.S. knows this. Japan knows this. Its the whole 'I have it, and you can't' philosophy. (OK, coupled with the fact the maybe old Kim may sell some nuclear devices to small groups of terrorists)

Don't you think it is interesting how problems are solved by large governments? Neither wants to sit down together in the same room and hash out their differences; posturing, muscle-flexing, and threatening is the standard way of diplomacy.

But why is he so interested in having them? He wants respect. The major countries of the world enjoy slapping the smaller, unaligned countries around, telling them 'do this' or 'do that' or 'let us in' or 'don't buy from him', etc.

It is very similar to the games we all played in our school days. They may be more deadly, but nonetheless just as silly.

 

I would say that if the Bush administration had never been so infatuated with trying to prove that Iraq had WMDs (incorrectly and then going ahead and invading anyway), and had the same current fixation on Iran, there would be less reason to blame them. But given the amount of money, lives, resources, and diplomatic goodwill wasted in Iraq, if even half of that was focused on NK instead, I bet we'd have had a better outcome by now.

BTW - good description of why light water reactors are not good for producing nuclear weapons, but I think it may be a bit over the head of your target audience.

 

One more time to make sure you've got it - nobody helped them as those reactors wre never completed, thus rendering your arguement kinda moot.



As I said in my earlier post, the plutonium came from Yongbyon, which was completed in the 80s. Most everyone else in the world seems to be aware of this.



After you...start with Burzum's post to you.



So in the face of facts to the contrary, you're making stuff up? That's kind of a denial of reality, don't you think?

However, since you seem to be a fan of Wikipedia...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreed_Framework

In December 2003, KEDO suspended work on the pressurized water reactor project.

 

On #2, you want to defuel your reactor before the Pu-239 concentration stagnates at equilibrium (since Pu-239 will burn up better than U-235).

With all due respect, I'll decide myself when and how I want to defuel my reactor, thank you very much.

 

Unagidon gave you the answer but you didn't read it. The material comes from the nuclear reactor built by the Nth Koreans.

 

Yes, the peace is already begining to flow. Out from the ground, and into the drinking water of the NK peoples. Soon that peace will send them into writhing fits of pain as they prepare for the utimate peace.

Morons.

 

"But why is he so interested in having them? He wants respect. The major countries of the world enjoy slapping the smaller, unaligned countries around, telling them 'do this' or 'do that' or 'let us in' or 'don't buy from him', etc."

You hit on something I have been paying particular attention to. Been around State Dept. personnel w/ experience in Japan - they all exhibit a strong "demand" for respect and honor. It is something which permeates the thinking w/ involved in Asia. The six way talks is a good vehicle to hammer out a deal, but it has been overly emotionalized (intentionally?) by PM Koizumi disregarding the promise to return the "abductees" and the open hostility of the US delegation at the start of the talks. "Honor and respect" has been abandoned outside the 6way talks, thus extreme polarization has produced the test detonation. DPRK has been pushed into an emotional corner, thus they are trying to obtain "respect and honor" for themselves, alone.

 

North Korea made the Clinton Administration and Ex-President Carter who helped Clinton on the 1994 deal with N.Korea look like fools when they announce to the Bush administration there were cheating on the treaty all alone since 1994 in making weapons grade nuclear material. The government of N.Kerea are the ones that told the world what fools Clinton and Carter were. A big part of the Clinton deal with N.Korea was to supply tons and tons of food and millions of barrows of oil to the N.Korea alone with the promise of a light water nuclear reactor.

The N.Korea government used the money the saved from the free food and oil from America and diverted it into there nuclear weapons programs behind the backs of the Clinton Administration and that is the truth, Albright and Clinton got duped and not the Bush Administration got the clean up the N.Korea mess. I agree with Senator McCain last thing we need to do is follow a fail N.Korean policy with another Failed policy and one on one talks failed. McCain believes that the 6 party talks is the only way to go because when N.Korean government slaps the face of America breaks an agreement with USA who at the UN cares, no one, but if N.Korea slaps the face of USA, S.Korea, Russia, China, and Japan by breaking an agreement then many nation are upset. I can not believe that Clinton and his administration along with Carter trusted N.Korea, what fool. No one should trust N.Korea. The reason the Clinton Administration did it because it looked good and paper and Clinton trusted a fool named Jimmy Carter.

 

Mr. Roh will always blame Japan for everything going wrong in Korea, despite Korea benefitting from Japan

Mr. Roh is chumy chumy with Kim Jong Il and its no wonder USA doesn't Korea as well.