JAPAN NEWS AND DISCUSSION
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- English Instructor (Osaka, Kyoto, Kobe)
- Berlitz Japan, Inc. (ベルリッツ・ジャパン株式会社), Kansai
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- Kohgakusha Co., Ltd. （株式会社興学社）, Osaka
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- Translator
- ZAIHON, Inc. (日本財務翻訳株式会社), Tokyo
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Dog
Good| Bad ironchefFeb. 14, 2012 - 04:24PM JST
I think strengthening the Yen is the last thing the japanese government wants to.
Inflation is only the enemy of those on cemented incomes. A little bit of inflation in the Japanese economy would be a breath of fresh air. The Dankai generation would be compelled to actually use the pot of gold they sit on. Maybe in a detrimental way, as Oyatai commented, but the racism of Japanese society, ensures that won't happen - a bit like non tariff barrier.
Your definition of stagflation is rather mistaken. Government financial policy has little bearing on stagflation -contrary to Friedman's rather shakey conclusions, based on his study of Californian rent rises in the early 1960's - and is determined more by the prices of essential raw materials.
The really sad thing about Monetarists is not the discovery that the emporer is wearing no clothes, but that his subjects still think he has the most beautiful clothes ever worn, long after the event.
The BOJ's intent is good, but without the economic and social reforms, they are going nowhere. The BOJ is being used as the punch bag by the japanese political elites, while the Japanese political elites are really at fault.
The really sad part of this news is that the BOJ gave in to bullying.
Posted in: Yen weakens as BOJ eases monetary policy
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Dog
The solutions for Japan are political, rather than financial. The political solutions are long term and deep, involving a complete restructuring of Japanese society.
Unfortunately the Japanese political classes are the most incompetent section of this society.
Nothing short of a 'Japanese Spring' on the scale of Indonesia 1998, will remedy the dire political situation of Japan and thus produce an economic solution.
Posted in: Yen weakens as BOJ eases monetary policy
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Dog
Another nail in the begger thy neighbour coffin policy being pursued by most major world economies. The difference is that Japan will be running trade surpluses again by March and any weakening of the Yen, like the currency intervention, will petter out very quickly.
I'm all for the Japanese encouraging inflation, but the problem with most of the quantative easing since 2008 in most of the world is that the money hasn't dribbled down to the end consumer and stimulated consumption. This 10 trillion will follow a likewise path and be hoarded by the banks to counter bad loans to EU countries and used by Japanese multi-nationals to supplement their domestic institutions, as they refuse to rehabilitate foreign profits home because of the high yen.
What a mess.
Posted in: Yen weakens as BOJ eases monetary policy
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Dog
sf2k
It's bad financial politics in any society for the government to place a FX line in the sand. The Swiss did it successfully because it's a minor local currency. The Yen is one of the big boys and to maintain that line in the sand might well cost the japanese taxpayer billions of real currency and earn FX traders billions of our money. It could create a similar situation to Britain's Black Monday. Even then the British FX line in the sand was inferred, rather spoken.
I don't think I've ever heard of this happening before and is totally stupid and clueless.
Posted in: Azumi under fire for revealing forex intervention level
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Dog
*She even goes so far as to investigate crimes by herself in secret. *
Dumbest sub plot I have ever heard and that is saying something for Japanese TV
Tsukiko Otonashi - So who killed the Ojisan? I did. Why did I do it? Because of some childhood slight. How did I do it? I poisoned his ramen. I confess, it was me!
Posted in: Masami Nagasawa relishes her role as detective
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Dog
Agree with most of the posters on here. It has very little to do with helping the part-time workers and a lot do to with benefiting the government thru more tax revenue and playing with the already warped unemployment statistics.
If the government really wanted to help the working poor in Japan, it would do away with the Koizumi employment laws and return to the ethos of society looking out for the whole and not just the pampered. The Koizumi employment reforms have clearly failed in their intent (keeping manufacturing jobs in Japan) and have just allowed the exploitation of all those who have found themselves outside the the full time/life time employment system.
Posted in: More part-timers to become eligible for health insurance, pension programs
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Dog
miyazawa3Feb. 09, 2012 - 10:48AM JST
> Because their 3, 4 hundred years old History has nothing to compare with the 30, 40 Hundreds years old Asian History's.. this is something common to most Asian cultures, They are always rich with strong Cultures and so they have something much more than the Language..
Ever heard of the Greeks, the Romans or the Holy Roman Empire?
Actually the reason for north east Asia being such a hotbed of racism, from Korean elementary school children being taught to hate Japan to Chinese claiming that the Japanese are devils, is because they essentially share a sino culture with minor regionnal differances.
You should do a little research into The ‘narcissism of minor differences’ for how human societies whose cultural differances are or become indistinguishable, apply irrational factors such as race and 'the chosen people to mark their exclusivity
Posted in: Why do Japanese change their attitude when they communicate with foreigners?
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Dog
napoleancomplexFeb. 09, 2012 - 07:43AM JST *99.9% of the people are Japanese *
No they're not. Another urban myth
2% of Japan's population is non-Japanese and to tell you the truth the places in Japan, outside of the Dejima bastions like West Tokyo, that I've had the most difficulties, are the places where Japanese have the most interaction with non-japanese - Wakkanai, Otaru, Kushiro, Nagoya and Shizuoka.
The Japanese mindset, as developed within the public education system, with its subliminal emphasis on racial mythology and superiority, is just ill suited to interaction with non-Japanese and is more akin to a Sakoku mentality As long as the Japanese can remain in the present comfort zone it isn't going to change.
Posted in: Why do Japanese change their attitude when they communicate with foreigners?
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Dog
j4p4nFTWFeb. 08, 2012 - 03:31PM JST* And thus all the debt will remain domestic, and therefor not an issue.*
You lost me there. If you don't have enough money to pay your mortgage and none of your relatives have the money to loan you. Then you have to go elsewhere to find finance or default on the mortgage payments and taking the consequences.
Japan's servicing of her national debt, which is 230% of GNP, is a bit like a mortgage. Japan has to keep up payments or default and take all the domestic consequences of such a default.. At present Japan services the interest on her national debt by issuing government bonds which 80% are automatically brought by the Japanese post office bank. However in 3-5 years the Japanese post office, because of the declining domestic savings rate and the Dankai generation are spending some of that money they saved for retirement., will not have the money to buy those government bonds
To keep up payments, when there's no money left in the post office kitty, Japan will have to go to the international financial markets to sell its government bonds and they will ask for at least 5% on 5 year bonds. The 4 1/2 % differance between what the Japanese government pays now on 5 year bonds and what it will conservatively asked asked to pay by international financiers will, with the size of Japan's debt, eventually lead to hyperinflation in Japan or a complete default on repayment of domestically issued bonds.
It happened before in Japan, in 1932.
Posted in: Japan's current account surplus smallest in 15 years
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Dog
j4p4nFTWFeb. 08, 2012 - 12:49PM JST This has failed in both the US and Eurozone. Japan policy makers have been clear that this path will be resisted.
The main reason it has failed is because the major economies of Asia are controlling their economies according to neo-mercantilist polices. I give China the benefit of the doubt and that it is making efforts to convert its economy away from that (but is not changing it towards a free market economy) but Japan is and always has been a one trick pony of 'export export export
j4p4nFTWFeb. 08, 2012 - 12:49PM JST The borrowing is domestic, so there is no problem here. We should be issuing more bonds.
The problem is that the tax base, at present rates, from now is on a continuous decline with the declining working population and the Dankai generation want to spend some of that money that they have squirrelled away in the Japanese post office. Eventually, on present government expenditure, the Japanese government will be forced to turn to the international money markets to finance its expenditure and they way will be asking for more than a measly 1.5% interest rate on 5 year bonds
Posted in: Japan's current account surplus smallest in 15 years
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Dog
kchozeFeb. 08, 2012 - 11:17AM JST Dog, I challenge your contention that competitive devaluation exaggerated the effects of the Depression. When these policies went into effect, the Depression's worst effects had already happened. They don't seem to have had a significant effect on the world economy.
Well I’m not going to reinvent the wheel on this site. I suggest you do a bit of superficial reading on the "prisoner's dilemma" game theory analysis developed through the Nash Equilibrium.
A brief look at the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which was passed under Hoover in 1930, long before the Depression's worst effects had already happened is a classic case of what I’ve mentioned,
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff, if the Asian economies and Germany keep manipulating their currencies, will be reintroduced into the USA in some form by early 2013 : No matter who wins the November election.
Posted in: Gov't confirms 'stealth' intervention in currency market
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Dog
Good| Bad napoleancomplexFeb. 08, 2012 - 11:59AM JST the Bank of Japan better do something (more so than before) to stop the rise of the yen.. that being said, versus the USD, the yen has been appreciating since July 2007.. around 118 at that time, to around 76 today
Did you read properly..... **a surplus of 303.5 billion yen, **
Most of Europe or the USA would cream themselves for such a statistic. The figure also excludes the financial surplus that Japan Inc has through overseas investment and production.
This article is classic Nipponjin propaganda of the glass not even being there to be half empty or half full. Rather than venturing into the realms of currency manipulation, the Japanese government should be
Making the first changes, both economic and legislatively, to change Japan from being an export driven economy to a service and consumer society.
Cutting back on public expenditure so that the government doesn't need to issue JGBs to finance spending and thus Japan in the future will not have to depend on borrowing money on the international arena - which is the only fiscal justification for Japan continuously running surpluses.
Change the tax base so that the Dankai generation, who have all the private wealth in this country, are forced to either spend it or lose it through taxation. This will stimulate both the domestic economy and encourage them to pass their wealth on to their impoverished kin, who would gladly splurge some of it on raising their own standard of living; it might even encourage a lot more of the 20-40 generation to either get married and have more than the 1.2 children.
Posted in: Japan's current account surplus smallest in 15 years
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Dog
kchozeFeb. 08, 2012 - 01:22AM JST It's true that countries in the 1930s were trying to weaken their currencies. However, where what you say is dead wrong is that this wasn't the cause for the Depression,
I never said it was the cause of the 30's depression. I said that it greatly exaggerrated the effects of the 30's global recession and will be, by this year's end, the biggest contributor to turning this global recession into a probable global depression,
By the year's end. A US President will begin a 4 year term. The artificial jobs high created by the Obama admin for an election will have run its course. Greece and probably another EU country will have defaulted on their debt.
And to give fuel to above crises, north east Asian countries will be involved in a bout of currency wars to give their exports an upper edge.
By 2013, no matter who is the President of the USA, tarrifs of Asian specific imports will be brought in to counter these currency manipulation and the EU will do likewise towards Chinese and Japanese imports (Korea is protected for now by an FTA with the EU)
Voila! we are back to 1935 - 41.
Posted in: Gov't confirms 'stealth' intervention in currency market
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Dog
paulinusaFeb. 07, 2012 - 01:15PM JST China and South Korea have been doing this for the longest time. Japan is finally getting with the program.
It's this, rather than the Euro crises or the USA's debt, which return the world to the bad old days of the 1930's depression. Another 9 months of this and everyone will be playing begger thy neighbour through currency manipulation.
The neo-mercantilist model of prosperity through exports alone is finished and never was an effective long term economic policy in the first place, containing the seeds of its destruction in its initial implementation.
It's a bit like trying to do your university finals on speed/meths alone. Initially you might wing it through your enthusiasm and new found energy, but you'll crash well before the finish line.
Posted in: Gov't confirms 'stealth' intervention in currency market
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Dog
A few more fines like that and the USA will be able to pay off its national debt.
Ganbatte Nippon.
Posted in: Two Japanese auto suppliers to pay price-fixing fine in U.S.
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Dog
WurthingtonJan. I think this will go to international arbitration and ultimately any energy / mineral resources will be divided up evenly.
It won't because Japan doesn't want it to.
Even its own High Court (Tokyo 1942) ruled that the Senkakus did not fall under Okinawan jurisdiction (Ishigaki v Taiwan local govt dispute) but fell under the jurisdiction of the Taiwanese (then occupied by Japan) local government.
Posted in: China protests Japan's plan to name disputed islands
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Dog
NessieJan. 30, 2012 - 01:34PM JST that people wanted to do business in a foreign country but in their native language. No wonder they were unsuccessful
Where does it say that they wanted to do business in anything other than Japanese?
Posted in: Foreign firms feel sidelined in post-quake rebuilding
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Dog
Wow some real Japanese apologists really got in on the act in those last few posts. Normally I'd ignore them but...
Mekki.. do you really think they handed their bids into the local office in any other language, apart from Japanese? If you did, you probably think that the estimates were given in dollars.
Wurthington... cultural relativism never condones anything, but a cultural relativism based on a bi-polar world of us and the rest is just so silly.
Tumbledry... you don't think that Japan actively practises neo-mercantilist policies of domestic protection? In my 16 years in Japan, I've yet to meet a Japanese who doesn't think it is so. Normally they condone such practises along Japanese exceptionalism lines, but they don't deny it.
Posted in: Foreign firms feel sidelined in post-quake rebuilding
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Dog
Heda_Madness *Interesting but somewhat dated article. *
Not at all, this is relavent now and will be in 10 years time for neo-mercantilist Japan with it's one horse trick of ensuring that it does its best to make sure that it always runs trade surpluses.
Which is kind of really dumb at this dark period of the world economy, when it would be much better for Japan Inc to be doing its best to run trade deficits for the next 5-10 years so that its currency would weaken and the productivity cost differentials of manufacturing at home or abroad would be so small that the hollowing out of Japan's manufacturing base would stop.
However that's a step too far for national or local politicians to forsee and Japan chugs along to its inevitable demise in a sakoku cultural and economic haze.
Posted in: Foreign firms feel sidelined in post-quake rebuilding
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Dog
Wow some of these dekikons are getting real low. You'd think that Mai would have ambushed someone of her own age or older.
Ambushing a 23 year old kid is real low.
Posted in: Mai Satoda to marry Rakuten pitcher Tanaka in March