Wednesday February 15, 2012

Kijimuna's past comments

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    Kijimuna

    Sezwho, I agree completely that the fact are murky when trying to sift through them for conclusions about the gun ban. The cause was crack cocaine. Some feel more comfortable dealing with that by criminalizing possession of handguns by anyone, others feel more comfortable by having their own or hiring armed guards, I guess. Too bad too many retrofit those preferences with fact. Personally, the longer I'm alive and the more government workers I meet, I abhor governmental paternalism increasingly.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    Only now are we noticing, JT?

    Posted in: Hezbollah reportedly training Shiite militiamen in Iraq

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    Kijimuna

    The hundred years comment by McCain was a soundbite disaster. He was trying to say "we'll stay there as long as they need us" but he had no intention of suggesting that a presence would be any different than it is in Korea, Germany or Japan.

    I'm enamored with Obama and have never voted for McCain but I am still waiting for him to show me that he is not America's second Jimmy Carter.

    Posted in: U.S. military see benefits in both Obama, McCain

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    Kijimuna

    Massive outward flows of Japanese money, both via government accounts and via the pachinko winnings ship. In return, North Korea can apologize profusely and offer Japanese students thousands of humanitarian working holidays.

    Posted in: What is the best way for Japan and North Korea to resolve the abduction issue?

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    Kijimuna

    Sezwho, I don't think he was arguing causation. I think he was arguing that the ban did little to cut homicides, especially those involving guns. The causation argument is usually pushed by those in support of such bans.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    Sezwho, thanks for the reply. Agreed on your characterization of Obama's situation.

    I don't agree on the court's decision as being craven. The Court came within a vote of mandating a mass confiscation of those 192mn guns. This issue was probably the most important of the Court's since Brown v. Board or Roe v. Wade. It will be the kind of issue for this year's campgain that abortion was in 1992. Repubs will hammer Obama on any support for the Chicago ban. Fear over Obama's sincerity will seriously undermine red state prospects that have looked good--watch the polls over the next few weeks. Both have to promise to pick justices that reinforce an individual's right. Obama now has to suppress urban anti-gun supporters more than he does his fans among gay marriage backers and muslims. You can bet that his voting record and news quotes over the years are getting fresh scrutiny. Not saying that this is how it should be, just saying that this is where we are.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    Zen Builder, law enforcement and CIA friends have told me the same thing, that shotguns are best for home defense, partly for the spray effect, but primarily because the sound a pump action makes. (For the record, I don't own a gun--yet.)

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    Thanks Betzee. I'm signing off too.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    FWIW, allegedly higher rates in Europe are probably so in the aggregate as additional countries are counted in the data. It may just be that Americans are more murderous than Germans, for example.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    RMKA, I wouldn't sweat it too much. JapanToday's forum has already debated the relative rates of various countries (including that Europe's rate is higher than America's, which I haven't bothered to confirm).

    It's safe to say that guns are a very useful murder tool, but not the only one in the drawer. The data doesn't show a causal relationship between guns and higher murder rates. The Swiss and Israelis have hundreds to thousands of automatic weapons at home, and low murder rates. Britain's murder rate rose after guns were banned.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    Mea culpa, my second sentence should have been "crime rates in the US are comparable to other developed countries." The gun-related fatalities countries are a separate list, as indicated.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    Hey Betzee, thanks for your reply. To be clear, I said that crime rates in the US are comparable with other countries. Obviously, guns play a larger role in the US than most/all of those. The list of countries with higher gun-related fatalities are not intended to be the other "developed countries." Sorry I didn't make that clearer. I agree with your characterization--it is worth noting that most of those countries have larger drug cartel and mafia presences that probably account for the bulk of their numbers. The first half of this year is not yet over and 400 Mexican policemen have been killed by drug traffickers, including the very top. A few days ago, Mexican military personnel were arrested IN PHOENIX doing a drug hit involving body armor, tactical weapons and 100 rounds fired. After drawing the cops into an ambush, they surrendered only after realizing they didn't have enough ammunition left. Scary.

    Regarding the article you mentioned, some of her stats roughly agreed with mine (percentage of handguns used in fatal shootings). She doesn't describe enough about methodology to understand the 5% number, for example. That's tough to do in an interview and make it soundbite-worthy.

    Have a good weekend!

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    A couple more interesting factoids now that I started reading about this. Individuals in the US own around 192 million guns, with most owners having more than one. Roughly 39% of American adults live in households with guns. It is possible that one reason Scalia's opinion focused on home defense is that only 11% of gun owners in the US reported that their guns were for hunting purposes. There is a significant cultural and regional difference around the US as well. Regionally, the Northeast reports the lowest number at around 25%. The Southeast number is 60%. 1 in 6 live in a household with a rifle AND a shotgun AND a pistol. Guns are most likely to be found in households that are Republican, Southern and yes, you guessed it, affluent.

    http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=234

    I have to say, I was staggered by this data. 192 million guns is 2 for every 3 people. It is shocking that the suicide, accident and criminal data are as low as they are. Cut out suicides and homicides, the number of gun-related fatalities is relatively tiny. US Bureau of Transit Statistics for 2004 reported 243,023,485 registered passenger vehicles in the US and the Department of Transportation reported 43,510 driving-related fatalities, almost all of which are unintentional. If only drivers handled their vehicles as safely...

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    "I looked in vain in the above posts for an answer to my question, If we are supposed to be ready to open fire on a colleague at any moment to prevent him from getting us first, how the hell are you supposed to get any work done? Until someone can answer this, I'm entitled to dismiss this argument that more guns = greater public safety."

    Hey there Betzee, I'll bite. Although I strongly favor rules against bringing weapons to work, which any employer is entitled to enforce when inviting employees onto its premises, no one answered this because it is not the sharpest of arguments to support your conclusion. Also, automatic weapons are not the problem, and I don't think Heller cast doubt over government ability to restrict these. Handguns are the issue, for the reason you described. According to the FBI, handguns accounted for 75% of 2005 gun-related homicides, as opposed to 4% for rifles, 5% for shotguns and the rest for "unspecified." The ruling in the Heller case is limited and self-consciously invites further litigation. The Court deliberately confined this to possession at home. Concealed carry, etc. were beyond the scope of the case.

    You mention gun-related fatalities. Assuming your 30,000 number is correct (which I suspect might be low), US CDC estimates that 17,002 suicides in 2005 were by gunshot, accounting for around 60% your number. (Over 2 million people die in the US each year.) I did not spend time looking for accident data. FBI stats for homicides by weapon (murders, negligent homicides) in 2005 showed that roughly 10,100 of 14,860 homicides by weapon were by gunshot. I don't know if this includes suicide (a homicide crime actually) but I assume it is not. I should also point out that in a number of studies 75% of homicide victims had a poor criminal record. 80%+ of violent crime in the town I live closest to is gang-related.

    With regard to self-defense, a 1994 study published in the American Journal of Public Health found that firearms were used (not necessarily fired) in self-defense between 1987 and 1990 in an estimated annual mean of 64,615 incidents of violent crime (rape, assault, attempted homicide). Victims used firearms in 0.18% of all crimes recorded by the survey and in 0.83% of violent offenses. Firearm self-defense is rare compared with gun crimes.

    Finally, for those trying to paint an exceptionalist picture of the United States, you should know that data shows crime rates in the United States are similar to those of other developed countries. Other countries have significantly higher rates of firearm usage in homicides, including Mexico, Brazil, Thailand, Guatemala, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Colombia, Estonia, and Russia. Some if not all of these have stricter gun restrictions than the US.

    Just trying to fill in the picture for purposes of clarifying the discussion. I can post the links if you need them.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    BTW, gunnies are relieved but not happy with the outcome yesterday. A 5-4 margin will make this a lightning rod issue in this election, like abortion in 1992. Obama's comments to the SF cocktail fundraisers about rural folks bitterly clinging to guns and religion will be repeated ad nauseum until November.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    SezWho, to the contrary, Obama's main talking point was that he has always said that gun ownership was an individual right. Any hope for red state traction will disappear if he doesn't go right on this. McCain and conservative commentators are hammering Obama to anyone who will listen for being a flip-flopper that says anything to get elected.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    Without knowing a lot about the facts, I for one doubt that the victim's daughter found with him didn't know.

    Posted in: 18-year-old arrested for killing friend's mother in Mie

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    Kijimuna

    Sushisake, I'll directly answer your question. I would not be responsible because I didn't pull the trigger. As you know from Akihabara, guns are not the only weapons available. Everyone argues the slippery slope against toleration of guns, you can use it the other way also. Curtail guns and knife murders become a national emergency, just ask the Japanese and Brits. Does a new knife ban curtail knife crime, or gun crime among criminals? Among pros, the answer is no. Among determined amateurs, the answer is find something else. Like household cleaners, or trucks, or an axe, or a stick, or rocks. Yes, let's ban rocks. How far does nerfworld go for you?

    Having been a victim of violent crime, I'd rather have a gun. People who wish away crime through legislation are kidding themselves. From 100,000 feet, total gun deaths may go down with a ban, but when your life deviates from the statistical norm, god help you because gun deaths in that situation will almost never be anything other than intentional crime. Self defense has been eliminated.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    SushiSake3, please ask Washington DC residents if lower per capita numbers made them safer. Thanks.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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    Kijimuna

    The headline is wrong. The US Constitution does not grant the right. The Bill of Rights restricts federal government encroachment on rights recognized as inherent under natural law.

    I fully support concealed carry limits, background checks and registration and training requirements, but not bans. I never understood the desire to keep a gun until a man robbed me with a boxcutter. Bans reduce the number of guns and dramatically swings the odds in the favor of criminals. Never happens? That's what I thought. A person breaks into your flat and police response times are 20 minutes plus. The only time I called police in Tokyo it was 42 minutes from the call at the empty koban until the police responded. Good luck during the wait.

    Posted in: Supreme Court says U.S. Constitution gives Americans right to own guns

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