Thursday February 16, 2012

Klein2's past comments

  • 0

    Klein2

    "This is the first time they've sounded like adults speaking to adults."

    Could not disagree more. TEPCO and the J government have been pressured at every turn to make predictions and estimates based on knowledge they did not have. When they refused, well, the US NRC went storming off and called them liars, the world press started making things up, and China and Korea started spouting off. I stopped listening to the foreign press and made excellent decisions. People who listened to the foreign press and governments look like fools now. They are.

    I think the J government and Tepco have done an excellent job. Excellent. NHK and local news covered their conferences carefully and reported accurately. I suspect that you were reading foreign news, where the reporters either knew Japanese OR science (a little) but certainly never both. The NY Times bylines were from Hong Kong, for instance. Novosti had a good reporter. The Guardian had the best science coverage from a junior reporter. They made the BBC look like boobs. The French news agency.. FPA? FRP? ... top reporter actually said on a news show today, "The Japanese government never told us what to tell people." Well. DUH! All they did was gave her the facts, they did not write her story for her. BOO HOO.

    Posted in: TEPCO announces it will take 6-9 months to end nuclear crisis

  • 0

    Klein2

    "Anything future from TEPCO is tied up in the courts - which means a decade or two. Although "

    Not true, Lizz. TEPCO offered them the money last week. NOW. They can have it now. It does not release TEPCO from anything. They are just concerned that people have to deal with hardships, so here is some money.

    Sure, settlement MIGHT take some time, but this is not part of a settlement. That is what MOST readers of the announcement never bothered to understand. This cash is NOT the settlement. It is money people can use NOW...even to hire lawyers if they want.

    Posted in: TEPCO announces it will take 6-9 months to end nuclear crisis

  • 0

    Klein2

    "Cesium acts chemically like calcium.

    Not it doesn't. Get your facts straight."

    Uh. Yes it does.

    Posted in: TEPCO announces it will take 6-9 months to end nuclear crisis

  • 0

    Klein2

    "I think all her weird costumes just distract many people. Take away those costumes"

    Pukey. She wants the weirdness. It is part of the art. David Bowie did this a lot. I have heard that Elton John and Billy Joel describe her work as excellent.

    I think GaGa is a realistic person. She tried to make it the hard way, as Billy Joel did, but, SIGH, you just can't do it nowadays. And big glasses and being gay have already been done by Elton John, so what are you going to do?

    One thing is for sure, when she is finished with her career, she will have a PhD in "Fame" studies. Whatever that is.

    Posted in: Lady Gaga to perform at June 25 charity event in Chiba

  • 0

    Klein2

    You know, everybody has the right to be wrong, but what happened to you man? First of all, the money they offered the other day was understood to be the first tranche of compensation. These people need money to keep going. If anything, it will help them bargain from a position where they will not be entirely desperate for any payout.

    And yeah it is a sad situation. But just to put it in perspective, I would say that NO ILL EFFECTS is quite a bit better than being dead from a tsunami, like a bunch of people are up north. My perspective of SAD has changed a lot in the last month. I won't say "things are tough all over" but they are if you go north of Ueno eki. On a sad spectrum, Fukushima is no Ishinomaki.

    Third, I very much doubt that the radiation will approach that of Chernobyl, but if it did, so what? Most of it is low level, short-half-life stuff released into or over the Pacific Ocean, where it is basically GONE for all purposes other than measurement. Cesium is more likely to wind up in a snail shell than a fish bone. Chernobyl sent its spew over Amsterdam, Stockholm, etc. And it was nasty stuff mixed with coal smoke. I remember Chernobyl, and this is no Chernobyl.

    Fourth, someday, somebody will do a study, and they will find that people in Fukushima were more likely to commit suicide, more likely to die younger, more likely to have heart attacks, more likely to kill their spouses, and abuse their children, but I don't think they will find a higher incidence of thyroid or other cancers, within statistical error. You know cancer is a terrible thing, but, and I don't want to sound flip, eventually we will all die of cancer, if you live long enough, you will die of cancer. And thyroid cancer just happens to be one of the most treatable cancers there is.

    This is not the end of the world, and this is not the worst thing a government has ever done to its people. Put it in perspective. Is it a BP? A Katrina? A Bhopal? A Chernobyl? Not even.

    Posted in: TEPCO announces it will take 6-9 months to end nuclear crisis

  • 0

    Klein2

    Just as a big "in your face" to all of the worriers who said "bury it in concrete", let me just provide this:

    After some period of time, workers were actually able to enter the CORE of Three Mile Island. That is how cold and inactive it all got. In contrast, nobody will be getting closer to Chernobyl's reactor for thousands of years, and it will be leaking before that. It is unlikely that the core is even in one place. What a mess.

    People are going to regret forcing Japan to call this a 7. The IAEA is going to have to find a new system, or maybe just admit that ranking does not mean very much. The "consequences over a wide area" will have less of a health effect on people than US a-bomb tests had on Steve McQueen.

    This problem was handled in excellent fashion in very dire circumstances. Can you imagine? ZERO deaths from a problem like this. Crisis indeed.

    Posted in: TEPCO announces it will take 6-9 months to end nuclear crisis

  • 0

    Klein2

    "They may have developed a technique to remove radioactive cesium from contaminated water, "

    This is very likely to be so. Cesium acts chemically like calcium. People are saying that cesium will concentrate in the food chain, but I seriously doubt that. If calcium did that, we would be walking sticks of chalk. We could write on blackboards with our bare hands. Just think about it.

    I would bet that, with Japan's rains, particularly acid rain, the cesium will bind to other minerals and be "sequestered" soon, or it will be leached down from topsoil soon. Or lets say half will this year, then half of that next year, etc. That is what happens to calcium, anyway.

    Posted in: TEPCO announces it will take 6-9 months to end nuclear crisis

  • 0

    Klein2

    Got to love the headline.

    I would say the "crisis" was over more than two weeks ago. What is going to take 6-9 months is basically watching and waiting and getting ready to handle problems if they develop. Not much of a crisis there. Probably like watching paint dry.

    What this means in terms of fukushima people is that they can get back to their homes probably very soon. Not all, but I would say most. We will see what the scientists say in a month.

    The gov wants to be very cautious about it because we as taxpayers might have to pay their medical bills otherwise... oh wait... we already DO... then I guess the government just wants people to be safe. What a surprise.

    Prudence. Since 3.11 we have gotten good decisions on Fukushima.

    @5 cents I also heard there was a spike. Was not concerned, but there is bound to be fluctuation.

    Posted in: TEPCO announces it will take 6-9 months to end nuclear crisis

  • 0

    Klein2

    "could any prior training have prepared citizens to cope with a magnitude 9 earthquake and 10-15-meter-high waves hurtling kilometers inland at speeds of 100 kmh?"

    That should be km/h. h is not a multiplicand, it's a denominator. But anyway, the answer is yes! Such training is possible, but the marginal benefit from doing it considering that it is such a low probability combination of events does not make it worth it.

    So it is exactly tied to nuclear safety. Of course we can all be safer, but we would rather spend time and money on TV and potato chips and cross our fingers. It isn't bad. It's the way we are. Every day, we live in denial that our sun is going to blow up some day and make all of this meaningless.

    "Daily life makes us complacent"

    Yep. Kurt Cobain said -- I think I'm dumb. Or maybe just happy.

    The last line of the article could not be more wrong. Drilling, even if it does not prepare people for everything, has the effect of calming them and letting them act rationally. "Do I do this, or stick to the plan?" Then actions are based on CHOICE and DATA rather than panic and clamor.

    Tokyo needs to spend less time writing articles and more time drilling.

    I am bursting with pride at the actions of teachers and my community in the first hour after the quake. No panic. No confusion. Never. Few tears. No screaming and yelling. My whole family was home in less than half an hour, checking on neighbors, and preparing for a cold dark night in the aftershocks. Then we brainstormed about how we could help others.

    No need for SPA to second-guess. I don't think the preparation could have been better. That quake? That tsunami? The death toll could just as well have been double. Generally, young people were saved, which says to me that the older folks knew what to do, they just couldn't do it.

    Posted in: Earthquake, tsunami drills may have been counter-productive

  • 0

    Klein2

    She is doing the concert here to make a statement. It is bold and brash and intelligent.

    "I am not afraid! I won't be cowed! I won't run!" She stands with Tohoku.

    Posted in: Lady Gaga to perform at June 25 charity event in Chiba

  • 0

    Klein2

    "Other artists canceled events scheduled in Japan amid fears of radiation leaking from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor complex, but Lady Gaga was quick to say that she was not concerned. "

    There is your answer fds. ROCK ON LADY GAGA!!

    People on this site know I have kind of... well... said she was interesting, but now she is showing far more than average intelligence too.

    "Radiation. MEH. I'm not worried. It's all overblown." OOH Yeah! You go gaga.

    Posted in: Lady Gaga to perform at June 25 charity event in Chiba

  • 0

    Klein2

    In a very odd way, this news story makes me happy. It is nice to know that some things in Japan have not changed, and that some people don't have better things to do than lose their self control and get all gropey.

    Although, I think a GREAT punishment for this guy would be a month's duty at a shelter up here in Miyagi. Just boom. No charges, but do a month of service. NOW. He needs to do some learning about what a human being is.

    Posted in: Assistant prosecutor arrested for allegedly groping woman on train

  • 0

    Klein2

    Well, I guess I am calming myself enough that I can share stories. One family I am helping from Oshika lost everything. Every stick of everything they owned. Their house was 100 meters from the coast, and grandpa's story is unbelievable. He was taking abalone or something and hears the sirens, so he jumps into his truck and DRIVES HOME! By the time he is in his living room, the water is up to his chest. Then. The water receded. He said to his wife, and I quote, "Ya. yabai kamo". Then they ran to higher ground and sat around for several days eating and drinking A LOT, and believing that everybody else had it a lot worse. He lost one friend, but almost everyone he knew was ok.

    A friend has set them up in condo. Sweet. I opened my front door to them and told them to take what they wanted. Two tables, microwave oven, hotplate, hot pot, coat rack, chairs, zabuton, bookshelf, china hutch and they were good. Well. OK!

    I guess point being that there were places where the water eddied and others where it rushed and smashed things. The guy in the picture is hating life because of the cars and vending machines in the mix. In a fishing village, you just start swimming, I guess.

    Article Unavailable

  • 0

    Klein2

    errata

    I looked at my notes. I think I wrote: the waves reached 2.5 km inland in some places. My notes say that "waves were still 3 m deep in some places 2.5 km inland"

    I think I wrote: Preparations were for 3-5 m and were overwhelmed. My notes say that "preparations were for 5-6 m but waves were 6-8 m."

    There you go.

    Posted in: TEPCO president mulls paying damages; says he won't resign

  • 0

    Klein2

    Points I ponder:

    Let's say that TEPCO is found "guilty" of whatever. From now on, everything will HAVE to be designed to withstand a 10.0 quake. Just everything, because otherwise, well, you are a criminal. Well, um... that is nuts. Considering the law of diminishing returns, and that a 10.0 quake is many many times stronger than a 9.0, we are saying, as a society, that we want everything to be a hundred times more expensive. All of a sudden, I can't afford my house, or even an apartment. Forget shinkansens because they are just too UNSAFE! Imagine. I can't. We are going to have to ignore this to move on as a society. Sounds crazy, but enforced denial might be the only way we survive.

    Shouldn't Tokyo consumers feel responsible for what is happening in Fukushima? Once you peel back all the layers of "society", Tepco was working to satisfy the needs of Tokyo with this facility. All those shiny vending machines.

    I have "gamed" the Fukushima Daiichi scenario over and over, and I still can't see how they could do much better than they have. The 2020 hindsight really has to go back years to change history and improve the situation meaningfully, which really emphasizes that this is not a problem with one person or one company.

    Posted in: TEPCO president mulls paying damages; says he won't resign

  • 0

    Klein2

    Nigelboy, that is what the nerds are saying. Planet cracking quake. Worst tsunami since caveman days.

    If someone had actually predicted this, nobody would have believed them. An especially galling bit is that it essentially came out of nowhere. No asteroid strike. No countdown. All countermeasures everywhere failed. Onagawa was spared the tsunami because it was on higher ground.

    I said to my wife, after we got the kids home from school, and things were quiet on 3.11. I said, "everything's changed". She said, "what do you mean?" I said, "everything... just everything." And that was days before I knew what was going on in the real world.

    It is a new era. Welcome.

    Posted in: TEPCO president mulls paying damages; says he won't resign

  • 0

    Klein2

    Yeah. Fadamor. I have not looked at your link yet, but I see all of this, "I warned TEPCO" stuff and I think of all the times I have been warned of extremely low probability events.

    And I repeat, what action were they seriously expected to take? Japan went through deregulation fairly recently, and you know, they had a lot going on. Spend another billion on a little bit more protection? How are the shareholders going to take that? Well, the shareholders are getting punished.

    Someone walked into my office two years ago saying, "Hey, you need a solar power system." I told him to get lost. Like 10 times. What would you have done? What nagging warnings are you ignoring right this minute? I am ignoring about 10, having to do with weight loss, bicycle helmets, sodium, and spicy foods... someday I will really really regret it.

    I don't like the guy, but either he is human or he is not.

    And maybe the BEST starting point in the argument should be, if it were 11.0 instead of 9.0, there would be no argument at all. So at what point are we splitting hairs with talk of "warnings"? 3.11 was going to be a bad day no matter what countermeasures TEPCO chose.

    Posted in: TEPCO president mulls paying damages; says he won't resign

  • 0

    Klein2

    OK. Here is why I don't think he should resign. He is presiding over a disaster that nobody saw coming. Nobody. People who study this their whole lives were stunned. Not lawyers and soundbite people, but people who really know this stuff.

    These are not THE facts, but they are SOME facts that I got today from people who spend their whole lives studying this stuff. They don't talk to newspapers, by and large, but they are extremely respected among their peers, which is all I care about anyway. I was at a meeting of about 500 scientists who announced some preliminary results of related topics.

    I said before that this tsunami was epic. People poo-pooed that. Uh. Well. It was epic. There is a lot of evidence showing that, where Sumatra was a roll, this quake, called a megathrust, was a snap. It created a peak of water that was far higher than any recorded. The Alaska tsunami was put up for comparison. After that peak wave, there were as many as 6 waves following on, which pulverized breakwaters, literally bending them back and forth until they broke... that is, if the first wave did not already shatter them.

    I have not seen any comments posted here that are authoritative about tsunami. These guys were talking about units you have never heard of, so I sucked it all in. In terms of wave height at the coast, in terms of the area affected, in terms of damage, in terms of having rocks and debris in teh waves adding to destructive power, even the 869 tsunami (Jomon? I dont have my notes here) was a daisy.

    The data are pretty good at many sites near the coast and out in the ocean. The only sensor that was pegged and destroyed was where?... anybody want to guess? Miyako. The height was as high as the trough, so the sensor could not zero. Miyako was destroyed by a wave that was focused by its run up area and its "bay" ...you might read somewhere that the wave height there was tens of meters.

    Core samples have indicated effects of the 869 tsunami at different points inland. This wave was higher, it penetrated further inland (up to 2.5 km in parts of Sendai), and brought more water and debris. And that is even AFTER walls and countermeasures, which were generally designed to withstand 3-5 m waves. This was estimated as 6-8 m at the first peak.

    Finally, regarding tsunami, they have different character in different locations. The run up area, the landforms on the coast, the countermeasures all make a difference.

    All countermeasures were overwhelmed everywhere. There has been not one instance of any wall or device that stopped the tsunami, although parts of some installations remain. Those are being studied. Waves commonly swept 1 km inland. Only altitude made any difference really, which is why annnouncements made a few days ago urged people to find high buildings instead of trying to outdistance waves.

    Japan's geography was changed.

    That was the wave that hit Fukushima. Not a thousand year event. Looks more like a 5000 year event. That is my reckoning.

    But what about the quake?

    Posted in: TEPCO president mulls paying damages; says he won't resign

  • 0

    Klein2

    This is just more DEMA. Who does not think he is doing what he should do? Who does not understand why he is doing it?

    Yeah. But we all have to say that he is some kind of ghoulish criminal right this minute. Pile on. Be as negative as possible and shout loudly how nobody can be trusted.

    Posted in: TEPCO president mulls paying damages; says he won't resign

  • 0

    Klein2

    "Free electricity for everyone in the Tohoku, Kanto region."

    Yeah. Great idea, except that the electricity from Fukushima goes to Tokyo. You know that right?

    Tohoku Denryoku supplies Tohoku with power. Most people know that.

    So we are going to steal from companies that had nothing to do with this are we?

    Posted in: TEPCO president mulls paying damages; says he won't resign

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