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LuckyLangersJan. 28, 2013 - 03:36PM JST
In Japan, the national debt is seen topping ¥1 quadrillion by the end of March 2013. A policy of money printing pursued for a decade has failed abysmally and now politicians look set to pursue currency debasement in an even more aggressive manner – with attendant consequences.
The hyper-correlation of Japanese stocks and the JPY have led many to believe that Abe's miracle promise will be just the ticket to bring the nation's two-decade slump to an end - a 2% inflation target is all you need.
However, in a brief CNBC interview, Kyle Bass explains that not only are 99.9% of people wrong about the crisis (explaining the critical aspect of the abrupt turn of twenty years of the 'procylicality of thought' - that deflation is the norm), but Abe's actions have actually brought forward the date of the "detonation of Japan's Debt Time Bomb.
It is the Japanese institutions that own JGBs and they own them at meager rates of interest simply because of the ingrained belief in deflation; when the government begins to target 2% inflation, the swing in forward expectations (he notes to monitor inflation swap breakevens) will be the trigger for Japan's implosion.
Bass warns that "Japanese debt is around 24x central government tax revenue and when you sail into the zone of insolvency, nothing you can do will help," though he realizes that calling the end of the 70-year debt super-cyle to a specific date is naive, he does expect the 'bomb' to explode within 18 month to two years.
All of the components for this [bomb] to go off 'all of a sudden' are in place. The clock has started on the qualitative shift in participants' minds that the situation is untenable as the realization that Japan spends 25% of revenue on interest now - and with higher rates (via this supposed inflation) the entire situation becomes farcical as every 1% rise in their cost of capital (or rates) costs them another 25% of revenue!.
On JPY devaluation - The signs are already there that elites are exiting the JPY - with recent M&A transactions - he warns. 20% of exports go to China; this could be halved given the tensions, and a JPY devaluation is not going to restore the competitiveness of that secular decline.
On Japanese stocks - The people buying Japanese stocks, are picking up dimes in front of a bulldozer.
Posted in: Support for Abe rises to 66.7%
LuckyLangersJun. 21, 2012 - 02:36PM JST
Torafusu Torasan, maybe check out 'Ain't talking about love'. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuyvT8nFMLY Raw and powerful, off the Van Halen album. BTW Tezbo, AC/DC rocked Saitama on the Black Ice tour. Awesome!
Posted in: Van Halen with David Lee Roth to tour Japan in November
LuckyLangersJun. 21, 2012 - 10:49AM JST
I've bought this legal herb about half a dozen times from NZ. Expensive, but excellent quality. I did go a bit beserk and smoked way too much, but had a great time. Strong as.
On the other hand, I have also bought some cheap legal herb from the US and it was awful. Couldn't get a fly high, and ended up in the garbage. I remember 10+ years ago when magic mushrooms were semi-legal and I enjoyed them on a weekly Friday night too. Rules, laws change, so get in while you can if you want to try?
Posted in: 99 requests for emergency help in 5 months due to 'law-evading herb' use in Tokyo
LuckyLangersJun. 02, 2012 - 11:01AM JST
I work in a bank and have a large back tattoo. Kept hidden until the right opportunity arises. I have been here for 20 years (leaving in 20 days), and with a bit of skill with some towels have made it into all onsens & sports clubs. As Tokyokawasaki said freedom of choice. On ya' cletus too!
Posted in: Women show their enthusiasm for tattoos
LuckyLangersMar. 02, 2012 - 10:20AM JST
Japan demands concrete action? Japan doesn't have the god damn right to demand anything. Fools?
Posted in: Japan demands concrete action from North Korea
LuckyLangersFeb. 29, 2012 - 09:11PM JST
I didn't like working for someone else and opened my own business. Full on case of insecure Japanese guys and the gaijin syndrome. Just promote the gaijin misunderstanding and hate here? Can tell you that personal relationships with the person who employs you is paramount to success. Show the person who is paying your wage, contributing to your professional growth that you are on the same page, and away you go?
Posted in: Foreign staff at Tokyo brokerages find flattery gets them everywhere
LuckyLangersFeb. 29, 2012 - 09:04PM JST
Flyjin my ass, it's called common sense people. I had my 2 infant children and wife out of Tokyo within 48 hours of the earthquake once radiation increase 10 fold on the 13th March. Watched things unfold from the Hilton Cairns over the next 7 weeks. Whilst I didn't expect them to grow horns and antlers overnight, I have the resources and the authority within my company to do such. People who didn't do such, didn't have the money or power to do it. Now we are in Singapore. My family relies on me for leadership and to protect them period.
Posted in: Gov't feared nuclear crisis would engulf Tokyo, report shows
LuckyLangersFeb. 14, 2012 - 08:28PM JST
Japan will be the next Greece in the next couple of years as they can no longer sell their debt internally. After 20 years here, I am selling up and moving on. Good luck guys!
Posted in: Yen weakens as BOJ eases monetary policy
LuckyLangersFeb. 02, 2012 - 08:12PM JST
Disappointing how the writer, Jason Coskrey, introduces UFC as the world's most violent sport and that a journalist can write whatever they like with such little knowledge. Jason, there are no 12-6 elbows, groin kicks, punches to the throat, or a boxing 10 count system. The world most violent sport is Krav Maga, that I do sir. Learn a few facts first?
LuckyLangersFeb. 01, 2012 - 11:32PM JST
Can't believe the yanks didn't vote more for Ron Paul. The only one who has kept his policies consistent for 30 years, who preaches the constitution and budget constraints. Fools?
Posted in: Romney wins big in Florida; tells Obama to get out of the way
LuckyLangersJan. 09, 2012 - 04:14PM JST
cl400, I did google 'Japan bribes for whaling' and found a report according to London Sunday times. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501465_162-20007554-501465.html . Interesting stuff!
genji17, I am glad that you believe the Japanese whaling is LEGAL. And the stance of doing so for science probably does kind of make sense?
Posted in: 3 Sea Shepherd activists detained aboard Japanese whaling vessel
LuckyLangersJan. 09, 2012 - 08:32AM JST
Of course they knew they would get caught. Their statement delivered was a message: "Return us to shore in Australia and then remove yourself from our waters."
They are making a sacrifice and I am sure are prepared for the PR and 1 year in Jail. Lots of publicity for their cause.
Arrested 26 miles off Australia's coast in International waters, but inside Australia's 200-mile economic zone. What are the Japanese whaling ships doing there? Making friends? Dealt with under Japanese law? Anyone else see an escalation here?
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said the weekend’s incident exemplified why it was necessary to put an Australian Customs vessel in the Southern Ocean to monitor activities between the Japanese fleet and Sea Shepherd activists. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/attorney-general-nicola-roxon-has-said-australian-whaling-activists-would-face-the-consequences-of-their-actions/story-fn59niix-1226239673528
LuckyLangersJan. 05, 2012 - 07:10AM JST
The world is laughing not at the Japanese people, but the incompetent police here...shame on you?
Posted in: Police at first turned away surrendering Aum fugitive
LuckyLangersJan. 04, 2012 - 09:01PM JST
Tamesu-sana and @The Munya Times"....I got one for you? I live next door to Osaki police station and entered last year, with my company lawyer who had 3 letters of extortion. My Japanese company lawyer did all the talking and presented the documents. The police decided to take no action as the person attempting the company extortion was located in Gunma, and suggested we go speak to the Gunma police instead. No phone calls were made, nor any notable effort to assist future. The good news is that the world is now laughing at the Japanese police force incompetence. Ha,Ha?
LuckyLangersDec. 29, 2011 - 10:09AM JST
Good job J cops being upfront and honest with this. I also believe they will deal with this chap severely.
Posted in: Cop arrested for allegedly sexually assaulting two junior high school girls
LuckyLangersDec. 29, 2011 - 10:06AM JST
Damn right they should raise the consumption tax. The country is broke, pension system is broke. And while you are there Noda cut back your government defense spending too. This might help ensure a future for this beautiful country?
Posted in: Noda to press ahead with tax rise despite 9 DPJ lawmakers leaving
LuckyLangersDec. 28, 2011 - 07:24AM JST
I see nothing but escalation here. The Japanese coast guard protecting the whalers. International reifications through more accidents and violence. Many newspapers/magazines have picked up on the J gov't using JPY 2.3 billion of the Fukushima aid to fund whale hunting. Greenpeace has slammed this allocation. Rollingstone photos threat assessment: December 5th-9th.
Posted in: Anti-whaling activists use drone to track Japan fleet
LuckyLangersDec. 22, 2011 - 07:14AM JST
I smiled when I read that Gaga doesn't save any money, but spends in all on clothes, her videos, and lives for the day....this is from a certified financial planner.
Posted in: Going Gaga
LuckyLangersDec. 21, 2011 - 10:16AM JST
Can't this be solved diplomatically?
Posted in: Japan's coast guard arrests Chinese fishing boat captain
LuckyLangersNov. 20, 2011 - 05:33AM JST
What happened to this little lady is tragic. I have two little girls myself, and it almost brings me to tears. There are 3 very good schools that I have tried for knife self-defense in Tokyo. One is in Ikeburo, http://www.combat-sports-center.com/english/index.html, and one in Omotesando or Ichigaya. http://www.kravmaga.co.jp/english/. Only yesterday there was a knife defense seminar. Good luck and be safe.
Posted in: 14-year-old girl slashed on face by man on street in Saitama
May. 25, 2013 - 10:44AM JST
mrtinjp, if Daiichi Sankyo knew full scale of scandal and then I think the Company will…
Posted in: Daiichi says key details 'concealed' in Ranbaxy sale
May. 25, 2013 - 10:37AM JST
Abe and Aso =AA Just like Japan's bond rating, and if they dont watch out it's…
Posted in: Abe, Aso defend economic policies as markets settle
May. 25, 2013 - 10:36AM JST
I suspect Elvis is living out his last few years up there.
Posted in: The grave of Christ – Japanese town solves many of world’s mysteries
May. 25, 2013 - 10:33AM JST
Resign you muppet
Posted in: Hashimoto regrets meeting cancelation; wants to apologize to U.S.
With that said and done, it is now the turn of other western allied countries who…
Posted in: Japan's wartime brothels were wrong, says 91-year-old veteran