Monday May 28, 2012

Patrick McPike's past comments

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    Patrick McPike

    Yeah... we're one of the most geologically active regions in the world. We just got nailed by a tsunami and a massive earthquake. We have massive typhoons every year. I know... Let's build the world's tallest tower! That's the move! :P

    Posted in: Tokyo Sky Tree elevators halted due to strong winds on opening day

  • 0

    Patrick McPike

    @smithinjapan

    Sorry, but this is a copout. While external factors in our lives can affect the way we think and feel, anyone who allows external locus of control to dictate their decisions is a fool....

    I didn't mention the bit about her father as a "copout" for her, and I agree that ideally people need to take responsibility for overcoming their own personal demons.

    However, in Japan especially, there is likely more to the her story than what it said - and this was really my point. In modern Japanese society, a breakup that envolves children also generally amounts to what is in effect "legalized abduction". Hand and hand with this is generally a systematic form of parental alienation enacted by the abducting side of the family.

    This has a strong negative, and lasting, impact on the children involved.

    I think that Japanese society is in a self-perpetuating downward spiral of fatherless homes. While most modern countries, if only superficially, try to promote paternal involvement in the life of children, Japanese society and legal system effectively promotes the dis-involvement and/or complete removal of the father

    This seems to have created a repeating cycle of each generation lacking the tools to

    This is reflected in the ever decreasing marriage and birth rates, and the ever increasing divorce rate and number of fatherless households.

    Japan needs to rethink their views on family values, the importance that both parents play in the life of a child, and reform the Japanese legal system from the archaic and corrupt thing that it is into something that actually works and protects children. The system needs to reformed to ensuring that one "controlling" parent is not given a "rubber stamp" to cut the other parent from the life of the child. The system should be protecting children, not emotionally inept and selfish parents. Maybe then, this destructive family cycle of modern Japan could finally have a chance to start reversing itself.

    It will be interesting to see what, if any, role that the "surfer father" will be allowed to play in the life of his child... Or if this will be yet another typical Japanese-split where the father is unceremoniously cut from the life of the child.

    Posted in: Rie Miyazawa to divorce former pro surfer

  • 1

    Patrick McPike

    @Reckless

    Actually in Japan it is better to get married, even briefly, before the child is born, otherwise the kid's family register will list him/her as illegitimate for perpetuity.

    Just demonstrates that the Japanese system needs reform.

    Posted in: Rie Miyazawa to divorce former pro surfer

  • 1

    Patrick McPike

    In the Japanese media, Rie discusses how the fact that due to her having grown up without knowing her own father, that this has had a negative impact on her emotionally and impaired her own ability to have relationships. http://exci.to/J1d0R1

    I think that this is also part of the usual pattern of the breakdown of modern Japan.

    Posted in: Rie Miyazawa to divorce former pro surfer

  • 10

    Patrick McPike

    This line makes it sound like abductions continue???

    They do... but now it is Japan abducting for the rest of the world. Japan abducts more and more children every year.

    Posted in: Relatives of abductees urge gov't to make greater efforts

  • 0

    Patrick McPike

    @Flyfalcon

    Okay...okay... I wasn't going to continue on this thread, but I have to respond to this.

    Japan has lower crime rate.

    Does it? Maybe. Or perhaps it is just less reported (Japan child abuse cases hit record - UPI.com http://bit.ly/Js3ROP)?!. Either way, this is a side argument, and therefore a deflection. The point is that Japan lacks many basic protections of individual / human rights - and this has an impact on productivity; and Japanese society in general.

    Japanese employers are relutantant to fire workers.

    You seem to be stating this as a positive. A) this trend is fading. B) How does a company holding onto non-productive workers really benefit Japanese society???

    Therefore it is keeping more social order.

    A zoo has order, does that mean that it is productive??? Boy, those カバ sure are fast typist! :P

    Which system is perfect?

    No system is perfect. That is why you have to select the the system of "lesser evils".

    More skilled workers needs more job opportunities. The rate of decline in Japan was a structure and investment problem. Not about skilled shortage. Japanese Architecture and engineering is one of the finest in the world.

    I would suggest that you are looking at this very backwards... Entrepreneurship creates more "job opportunity". Having more skilled (and creative) workers available could: A) provide a larger pool of potential entrepreneurs B) provide a larger talent pool to assit entrepreneurs with creating job opportunities.

    Japanese Architecture and engineering is one of the finest in the world.

    This is a very limited view of a complex topic. The Japanese market tends to create folks fairly skilled at things which are tangible. I've sat in many meetings at prominent Japanese companies which the "technical intelligentsia" debating irrelevant topics (where both groups were wrong) about more abstract aspects of applied technology. As another example... Japan is the only remotely tech country where it is a struggle to find a hot-spot. When I was in Japan, I was amazed at how "low-tech" Japan was with regard to day-to-day practical technology.

    I've got tons of real-world examples.... here is another:

    Touring a promenant "high tech" company trying to impress me with their testing facility - basically showing me how well they could test cables - but they had no idea that they needed to turn on SNMP to actually manage network devices over a a network (so they had been trying to RMAing perfectly functioning products as * dysfunctional*, when the only disfunction was their technical knowledge.

    It is very irresponsible and inhumane too. Starvation, Great Depression and Natural Disasters needs more intervention. If there is no Government, there will be more dead bodies, chaotic food shortage and social disorder. If there is no Government intervention, there will be no need to pay the salaries of Bureaucrats and Public servants.

    This is just flawed Keynesian thinking. You obviously didn't read any of the research papers that I referred to. Do you really believe that a handful of bureaucrats sitting in an office somewhere have a superior understanding of what people need... than the people themselves do??? This is called the the "Fatal Conceit" Did imperial Japan benefit Japan? I seem to recall Japan being pretty messy at the end of WW2... Governments are nothing without people -- people are the power!

    I suggest that you read a introduction to economics book. There is a basic tentant in economics called "unintended consequences". Basically, Governments push an agenda on the people... and that agenda tends to backfire -- it has unintended consequences : here is a video to help you out: Unintended Consequences | LearnLiberty http://bit.ly/Js5VpY

    People are smarter than governments. People survived for hundreds of thousands of years without governments. A government should protect people - not control people.

    "The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design." F.Hayek

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 0

    Patrick McPike

    @Zenpun

    the declining population issue.

    The issue is that Japan needs to either: A) increase the population B) Reform the Social-Welfare Programs.

    While, I don't agree with many of your other assertions regarding the limitations of Japan, I also don't really see their relevance in addressing one of these two key issues relevant to topic in the article - As such, I won't bother debating them.

    You seem to merely be stating that you believe that a declining population is good for Japan, without addressing the looming economic issue that is will cause; which is the point of the article.

    I got sympathy for expats who choose the J spouse

    You are still ignoring the fact that this isn't an "expat" issue, it is a problem with the Japanese social/legal system; which impacts Japanese far more than foreigners. The Japanese system not only doesn't protect the family unit (which I would suggest was one of Japan's great strengths in the past), the system is structured in a way which actively encourages the ripping apart of families in order to avoid even minor conflicts. The system rewards negative behavior!

    And again, this is just one example of the lack of freedom in Japan due to the system benefiting the State vs. the People.

    Spending too much time of social issue will lose the focus of more priority of economic development

    I'm surprised that you do not see that this topic has a direct connection to economic issues. The current system has a negative impact on Japanese society (and therefore the economy) as a whole.

    During the economic boom, Japan need a lot of skilled foreigners. Right now it has doomed. Importing more skilled foreigners without employment opportunities and reasonable living cost is very cruel.

    This is a deflection from my point. You are stating that since Japan in decline, it is better that fewer expats want to come to Japan, rather than addressing the point I raised of how social policy in Japan it turning off the desire of skilled workers to want to go there.

    In addition, I think that your logic may be flawed... have you considered that if Japan had more skilled workers, the rate of decline in Japan could be either slowed or reversed?

    Look at the current issue with Olypmus.... A) how do you think that it makes Japan look to the world's economic community? B) It is a very public example of how attempting to improve Japan (by for example, making a Japanese company run more effectively) is punished. In this case, by the foreign CEO trying to fix the situation being fired. Again, it is a very public demonstration of the tendency in Japan to want to ignore, or coverup issues.

    Singapore is located in strategic location unlike isolated Japan

    This is an empty argument. Singapore has basically no natural resources, is the smallest country in the region, yet has been the most financially successful of the ASEAN countries. If it is merely a quirk of Geographic location, why have they been financially more successful than their larger and more resource enriched neighbors? Simple. It isn't due to Geography - It is due to their policies of economic freedom!

    If Japan would become more free, I'm willing to bet the economic condition would greatly improve.

    Back in 1997, Asian banks got bursting problem like 2008. Before the crisis, Governments did not interfere much for banking and market.

    This is not simply not true. For example, "Japan's policies that kept otherwise insolvent banks operating, and that impeded the flow of capital to efficient firms, significantly prolonged the effect of Japan's crisis, resulting in a decade-long stagnation of the Japanese economy." source: http://1.usa.gov/I7Vnxw

    Back in 1930, US faced the great depression. A wise president stimulate the economy with railway, bridge construction. It is win win for unemployment and nation. People got employment for food. Nation got infrastructure and social stability.

    This is historic economic revisionism. The "New Deal" was largely a Governmental Power-Grab (initially, FDR's policies where shot down by the courts for their unconstitutionality; then FDR threatened to "pack" the court: Judicial Procedures Reform Bill of 1937 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://bit.ly/I83mKT ), which was generally a failure economically. It prolonged the financial recovery by several years.

    "Roosevelt's cartel-high wage policies prolonged the Depression by several years. In the absence of these policies, we estimate that the economy would have recovered back to trend quickly, with hours worked and investment rising well above their normal levels, rather than being significantly depressed."

    "There are two principal messages from the New Deal and these other economic crises for our current crisis. One is that crisis management policies designed to reduce the cost of a financial crisis can actually prolong the depressing effects of these crises by impeding the normal forces of supply, demand, and competition."

    source: http://1.usa.gov/I7Vnxw

    Top Three Myths about the Great Depression and the New Deal - YouTube http://bit.ly/ICzqnd

    While often well-intentioned, government intervention generally makes problems worse, not better.

    Anyhow, I've enjoyed the discussion, but it is now becoming circular. I hope that the people of Japan will stand up for reform, and that Japan will save itself from its current state of decline.

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 1

    Patrick McPike

    I did not see anything related to individual rights and freedom related in this article

    I did relate this to the declining population issue.

    Japanese constitution was not written by Japanese. Therefore Japanese diet lost the credibility for enforcing freedom and rights.

    I'm sorry, but I don't buy this at all. Japanese courts have NO problem enforcing things which benefit the system. The courts have proactively ruled in ways which violate Japan's constitution, but support the GoJ's status quo.

    I understand that there are some family settlement unfavorable to expats. It was individual choice for choosing their spouses and raising child. It is not a national and economic issue of Japan.

    You are mistaken... this is a Japan issue. The expat's just get the most press.
    http://t.co/Hc5LNV2E http://bit.ly/K4rd9c

    And it is a national issue : it impacts Japanese parents the same way : which impacts both the Japanese economy, the society, and potentially impacts people decisions to start families; which could impact the birth rate.

    And it is an growing economic issue : A) it is impacting Japanese parents at an ever increasing rate. B) The Japanese legal system is getting bad reputation internationally; therefore having foreign companies and investors thinking twice before investing in Japan. The Economist http://econ.st/w1nDAe

    And why would skilled foreigners want come to Japan, as they have no protections?

    I suggest you reevaluate the potential impact that the inability for Japanese parents to protect their parents rights would have on the society of Japan as a whole. And, again, this is just one of many examples.

    It was a great success story of Reganomic which made a free downfall of banking and financial system. Canada did not deregulate the market like U.

    The economy boomed under Reagan. Most of the debates about him and his policies are due to politics, not economic realities. If you are referring to the currently banking mess, it was caused by Governmental intervention and policies (as I described in my previous post)

    Supply-Side Tax Cuts and the Truth about the Reagan Economic Record | William A. Niskanen and Stephen Moore | Cato Institute: Policy Analysis http://bit.ly/K4rskP

    In Singapore, there is public housing and central provident fund regulated by Government.

    Singapore has a VERY high level of economic freedom (Singapore is #2, while Japan is #22) : List of countries by economic freedom - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://bit.ly/K4sopj

    This economic freedom leads to a strong economy. Singapore has only a 1.9% unemployment rate: Singapore Economy 2012, CIA World Factbook http://bit.ly/Ib9vWi

    Economic Freedom == Strong economy.

    One or two failure is acceptable. If many banks broke like 2008, it was unnatural.

    It was caused by Government meddling. If the Government hadn't tried to manipulate the market, the situation would likely never have occurred. A Government-Mandated Housing Bubble - Forbes.com http://onforb.es/Iba2aN Of course, due to the crazy politics happening in America, people are still trying to argue against this.

    How about Denmark, Norway, Switzerland and Germany? Their social-welfare spending are many times more than Greece.

    I think I've made it clear that it isn't all about spending - but eventually spending will catch up to the over economic factors. Spending is currently the BIG issue for the US. That said, since I haven't lived in Europe in over 10 years (back when the EU was just getting started), I haven't payed much attention to the details of their economies. But the EU is very unstable and many countries are in trouble. The troubles there are far from over. European sovereign-debt crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://bit.ly/IbcU7v

    And, if you read some of the articles I posted before about Germany, you'll see that Germany was "abusing" the EU relationship at the expense of other countries. As those countries suffer, Germany's ability to do that will continue to diminish...

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 0

    Patrick McPike

    @Zenpun

    I disagree about enforcealbe freedom.

    This was admittedly somewhat tangental on my part, but I stand by the lack of enforceable rights in Japan. The legal system in Japan is setup to benefit the state and the state bureaucracies; at the expense of the individual rights. Just as one example, Japan has NO protections for parental rights - hence the issue of child abduction in Japan. Once one parent takes a child away, the other parent defacto loses all parental rights (this will eventually be confirmed byt the Japanese court system)

    Once you realize that you could lose your child at any time, due merely to a marital disagreement - will you be more OR less willing to take the risk of starting a family? Might this be one potential factor impacting Japan's declining population rate?

    It was a root cause of world wide doom and gloom of the twin bubbles

    I disagree.

    A) The main problem is that Government constantly continues to try to regulate, control, and over-burden the market. It selects incentive programs (which always have unintended consequences), and sometimes interferes with the pricing decisions of the markets.

    This is what leads to all sorts of problems such as the current mortgage crisis in America. The Government interfered with the market and forced banks to provide unsafe loans. Left to their own devices, and completely depending on their own success and failure, banks would have never made such high risk loans.

    The regulations created by government tend to benefit the large, established companies (making them bigger and potentially creating monopolies) and make it more difficult (if not impossible) for smaller competitors to enter the market and provide competition -- which benefits the consumers.

    B) Sometimes companies make bad decisions; and fail. This is a necessary part of the market working - and the Government should not be providing bailouts, at the tax-payers' expense, rewarding companies for making bad decisions.

    One factor of US dollar depreciation was US government printed a lot of money.

    I agree completely. I am by no means claiming that the US is without issue. America has a Government spending problem that is leading us down a bad path as well.

    For example, Greece has own currency, they can devalue their currency for export competitiveness.

    Greece does not have their own currency. They are on the Euro system. And, actually, it was Germany which planted the seeds for the economic crisis in Europe - Although, Greece's excessive social-welfare spending would have causes problems eventually anyhow.

    BBC News - Did Germany sow the seeds of the eurozone debt crisis? http://bbc.in/J8CbjW Germany’s low wages caused euro crisis, says report | GlobalPost http://bit.ly/JQyMkn German economic policy caused euro crisis: ILO - The Economic Times http://bit.ly/I2YTFL

    Economy is a Cycle Patrick!.

    I would suggest that politics are a cycle. The issues that are being faced globally are, in my humble opinion, due to Statist Government with uncontrollable spending on unsustainable social welfare programs - all of which history has seen before.

    America was in a similar malaise under President Jimmy Carter. People said the same thing.. "the economy is stagnant", "America is in decline", etc.

    Then we had changes in Government policy - which led to the economic growth and boom that falled in the 80s, 90s, etc. But during that time, Government shifted policies again and started interfering to much in the market.

    If the Government gets out of the way, America will have another boom. Same in Japan.

    Of course, Government still needs to reform its spending practices...

    If there are too much protection for individual rights, no investor will want to do business.

    I completely disagree.

    For example, China was not much interested in environment, labour rights and intellectual property before.

    Seeing your definition of "individual rights" though, I see that there is a disconnect. You seem to be talking about Government controlled regulations; which are supposedly to benefit individuals. I am talking about an individual having the freedom to make their own choices - without government interference.

    We do not live in the perfect world for making profits and keeping everyone happy.

    I agree. No system can ever make everyone happy. The system shouldn't be trying to make people happy. The system should protect people's freedom, and let free people make their own choices, live with their own decisions, and try to find their own freedom.

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 0

    Patrick McPike

    @gregoryharuko

    BTW - the whole "black swan theory" thing that you keep praising, was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Wikipedia http://bit.ly/J68KZa Who is himself a self-proclaimed statistician and practitioner of Epistemology (part of the field of philosophy).

    In fact the whole "black swan theory" is a theoretical, philosophical theory, was developed to explain:

    The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology

    The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)

    The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs

    I find it ironic that you are using a statistically developed philosophical theory (which is basically what you called "fake science") in an attempt to discredit the validity of statistical projection based on a pre-existing, and observable trend. That is definitely some creative "out of the box thinking". Maybe that is the issue, a mis-understanding of what out of the box thinking is.... allow me to assist in removing the misconception: Thinking outside the box - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://bit.ly/IaSgV9

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 1

    Patrick McPike

    @gregoryharuko

    1)

    I think you are not following

    I follow perfectly well. Your original statement trying to relate the evolution of human society from hunter-gathers to the current socio-economic situation in Japan was for all intents and purposes a non-sequitur and had essentially no relevance to my point about Japan falling into the same trap that all statist political structures fall into.

    Your new comment trying to say that human-sciences are "fake" and only "hard-sciences" have validity, merely demonstrates to me that you probably have a mediocre familiarity with human-sciences and an over confidence in the hard-sciences -- which frequently have to make corrections. Do you remember when Pluto was a "planet".

    All "sciences" have strengths and weaknesses. All sciences are constantly evolving. Haven't you ever heard the saying: "Half of what we think we know is wrong, we just don't know which half"

    Variations on the "but we don't know which half" line http://bit.ly/IkwwnQ

    2) This is just nonsense. Science and Science Fiction play off of each other. Science inspires Science fiction, which in turn inspires science.

    Prophets of Science Fiction : Science Channel http://bit.ly/IkwKvk 11 Astounding Sci-Fi Predictions That Came True http://on.mash.to/IjlcFc NASA - The Science of Star Trek http://1.usa.gov/Ikx3X0

    3) Wanting something to happen, having a practical plan to do it, and actually implementing the plan are all different things -- Of course N/S Korea has little to do with the article... Anyhow, blaming the US is just an excuse. A) The US is currently extremely weak on foreign policy B) Why on earth do you think that the US wouldn't want a change to happen with regard to N Korea?!

    4) This is just a nonsense answer. I will state it again since you seem to still not get it....

    Japan has been a a trajectory. This isn't a magical prediction, this is what is happening. What the article is discussing is a report which shows where the current trajectory is leading. This isn't magic, it's not a wild prediction, it is an extrapolation based on the existing trend. Sciences of all sorts use these same techniques.

    5) Your response to "5" was really addressing the previous point "6". You ignore the real point "5" altogether.

    6a)

    Nihon has a very unique and creative mix of ideas, found no where else in the world.

    Yeah, yeah, yeah.... Japan is special. japan is unique. We've heard it all before. Every country thinks it is unique and special.

    So you see, Japan is a very unique country to create black swans

    No, I don't see how anything you said makes Japan uniquely positioned to be able to create a better out of the box thought environment.

    Japan is the country where "the nail which sticks out, gets hammered", this mind-set is not very conducive to "out-of-the-box" thinking. Japan's own innovators get this: Japanese entrepreneurs aim for Silicon Valley ‹ Japan Today: http://bit.ly/JmwfPI

    You say that Japan is "unique" in it's ability to "think out of the box". Yet Japan is anti-going against the grain. Out of the box thinking leads to disruptive techniques and technologies.

    the so inside-the-box US thinking behind

    You state that the west is incapable of "thinking outside the box" and seem to be denying the importance of west developed technologies like: TV, Radio, Computers, The Internet.

    Your entire line of thinking is a great example of why Japan is sinking... this blind belief in Japanese uniqueness and superiority - in complete denial of reality. Your country is slowly disappearing, and you want stick your head in the sand.

    6b) No, not even close. Why don't you actually read the link that I provided?

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 1

    Patrick McPike

    @gregoryharuko

    1) This is a series of non sequiturs completely unrelated to my comment. You seem to be confusing anthropology with political and economic trends (which is what I was discussing).

    2) You seem to be dismissing the predictions because they were made by "science fiction" sources. What do you think Science Fiction is?

    Wikipedia: Science fiction is a genre of fiction dealing with imaginary but more or less plausible (or at least non-supernatural) content such as future settings, futuristic science and technology, space travel, aliens, and paranormal abilities. Exploring the consequences of scientific innovations is one purpose of science fiction, making it a "literature of ideas".

    3) Completely different situation to E/W Germany. Among other things... Reagan was actively pushing to bring down the Iron Curtain and following a strategy towards that end. No one is doing anything remotely similar with N/S Korea.

    4) You are comparing apples and oranges. The article isn't talking about random predictions, it is demonstrating the current trends and showing where that trajectory will lead the country if not changed.

    5) Yes, Japan has changed when forced to due to external pressures. When has Japan done so on it own?

    6) More non sequiturs... then:

    You need Shinto Naturalism and Zen to out of the box ideas and black swans

    This is complete and utter nonsense. Western culture is based on neither Zen, nor Shintoism and has plenty of "out-of-the-box" ideas - I would argue, the MOST OotB Ideas. You seem to be suggesting that Japan has some "magic mix" that allows only it to have your beloved "black swans". Again, utter nonsense. Where was industrialized agriculture developed? How about radio? Television? Computers? The Internet?

    Also, are you aware that "Zen" is an export from China? Where is was practiced for centuries before eventually spreading to Japan (one of the last Asian countries to be exposed to it's teachings).

    Nor is Shinto particularly unique. It is one of a multitude of Animism-type religions found throughout the world (including other countries also exposed to Ch'an/Zen) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animism

    Japan is always so busy trying to be unique, that it misses opportunities to actually become unique.

    And for the record: Edo Neo-Confucianism - Wikipedia: http://bit.ly/J3ECgY

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 0

    Patrick McPike

    @gregoryharuko

    Predicting the future is always is proofing to be difficult for Homo sapiens, because it is based on extrapolation of past events

    I disagree, societies often make the same mistakes over and over. People seem to either not pay attention to the past, or think they are "smarter" than other people and that they can attempt the same actions but achieve different results. It is a counter-productive blend of egotism and ignorance.

    Who could predict in the 1970's that there would be cellular phones and Internet

    Apparently you never watched a episode of Star Trek.

    even that West-Germany would merge with East-Germany?

    Reagan did, even though the "experts" keep telling him it was not possible - even while he was eventually making it happen.

    So predicting how Japan would prosper in 2050 is plain guessing!

    Not at all. It is looking at the path that Japan is currently on and seeing where it is heading if Japan doesn't change paths in order to prevent it.

    One always underestimates the impact of the highly improbable on the future (black swan theory)! But one can create a society where there can be many successful "black swans"!

    Again - Not at all. This would suggest a change to the current path that Japan is on, thereby changing Japan's direction. That is the whole point of the discussion - to encourage Japan to change it's current path.

    Japan is still a good society to create black swans, because it is not so much based on Roman Catholic or Confucianist orthodoxy.

    Huh??? First, I don't see what a society not being based on Catholicism and Confucianism has to do with creating "Black Swans". Second, Japan is heavily influenced by Confucianist philosophy.

    ...etc.

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 1

    Patrick McPike

    @Zenpun

    Japan has protection to agriculture. Not in consumer, capital and trade. Comparing with Asian neighbors, Japan is more open and free

    I disagree, but don't see the point in arguing about it. Besides, most asian countries suffer from a lack of freedom, so claiming that Japan is the best of a bad bunch isn't particularly reassuring - or productive. Japan should be looking for ways to improve, not merely saying, "well, at least we're better than country X, so we can just keep our heads in the sand for a while longer." I won't belabor the point, but Japan provides very few actual enforceable "freedoms", and virtually no protection of "rights" - This is my number-one issue with Japan. Once you glimpse behind the shoji, you realize that in Japan is much closer to tyranny than a free society.... but I digress.

    Without America market, trade and technical know how, Japan will not get advanced.

    Nice of you to acknowledge that. Many in Japan tend to forget how much America helped Japan to advance technologically, and how America even helped Japan to become dominant in certain technologies by providing Japan a "leg-up" in the American consumer electronic market.

    I am not talking about just right now. The whole journey of Currency movement from 1970s to 2012. Let's go back to 1970s.

    I would argue that this is normal forex market adjustments; but this is not my area of expertise. The Government of China seems to subsidizing their currency in order to keep their exchange rate artificially low. Japan has been known to do this (and other tactics) as well. This all seems like part of the protectionist scheme.

    The reason of Yen buying right now is paying interest to bond holders

    This is part of the reason. But it is also due to currency repatriation - for reconstruction efforts, and to keep struggling Japanese firms afloat.

    China has huge population

    Personally, I think that this sometimes backfires on China. When I was still dealing with China for work-related efforts, they commonly had the mistaken view that they could merely "throw more people" at a problem in order to fix something. In my experience, this generally hurt them. Most of the time, they wouldn't manage to really fix the problem - at best they would just "band-aid" the issue for a little while. This "kicking the can down the road" is what gets companies/countries into problems (part of the mess in America now).

    China needs capital and technology. Japanese industries have already matured and established in 1980s. Development models was different.

    I would suggest that the models are not so much different as they are "at different points" on the development time-line; which may also be what you meant.

    However one poster has repeatedly posted declining tourism and business was because of the non English speaking people. There are many factors related to that issue.

    Yeah, we agree on this one.

    On the general "English in Japan" topic though, I think it would be useful to point out that it is indicative of another issue I observe about Japan - the "ganbatte" factor. There seems to be mindset which confuses motion for action. This, of course, happens everywhere to some degree (especially in bureaucracies), but seems to permeate modern Japanese society. I related this to the topic of "English", as many Japanese people study English in school, but don't actually learn the language; which seems due to poor teaching methods, and that mindset of confusing motion with action.

    In any case, I want Japan to succeed. So I am hopeful that Japan will start making reforms to help improve its current situation, prevent its own slow demise and make it a freer country with actual protections for the rights of individuals.

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 1

    Patrick McPike

    Zenpun

    Japanese politicians stupidly followed western style wild and risky capitalism because of political pressure. For example, rapid appreciating of Japanese Yen was one major cause of doom and gloom.

    I'm sorry, but this is just bad analysis. Japan has repeatedly practiced protectionism.

    You are also misunderstanding the issue of Yen market value. The reason Yen is high, is because Japanese companies are currently buying lots of yen (in other words, they are trying to convert their dollars and euros into yen) in order to convert foreign revenues into domestic profits) in order to keep the Japanese economy afloat. This IS the one or the key reasons that the Yen is increasing in value.

    In the reality, there are no free, fair and open market.

    In the current market... I agree with you. This needs to change...

    China is independent from western lecture and pressure

    I disagree. China is one of the key markets being used by the west (and others) for manufacturing, as such they are directly impacted by foreign markets. If china does not meet the requirements insisted upon, foreign markets will just move to another country for their manufacturing.

    They did not rush to open their market as western demand. It was a wisdom of their late reform leader. They are still protecting their capital market. Their reform progress was very slow to western standard.

    This is all true, and will eventually have an impact on them. However, pointing to the mistakes of China does not fix the issues of Japan.

    China has less English speaking people than India.

    True. But more than Japan.

    China got more tourists than India.

    Also true. But this is only relevant for tourism.

    If more English speaking nations got more tourists, South Africa will be one of the biggest tourists destination. However not many people from Asia want to travel to S.A. It is too far and inconvenient.

    With all respect... this is a Non Sequitur.

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 4

    Patrick McPike

    @Rolf Schlumpf

    I would suggest that as you apparently haven't lived in Japan, that you are at a disadvantage, experience wise, to those of us that have and do.

    Looking at Japan from afar, even visiting now and then, is a completely different experience to living there. Living in Japan you begin to see all the skeletons in the closet; all the things swept under the rug; learn about the realities of having no actual rights (especially as a foreigner).

    You haven't experienced many of the things the rest of us are discussing, because you haven't actually lived in Japan.

    Also, be aware that your wife's attitudes will almost certainly change (I know you probably don't believe this, but wait and see) - as she will likely shed many of the more western attitudes which she has adopted while abroad, and return to the borg-like mindset predominate in the country of Japan.

    You will have few, if any, true friends. Eventually, the polite veneer will fade away. You will always be viewed as an outsider; your friendships will always be skin deep - limited by this barrier you have no control over.

    This is all part of the problem that some of us have referred to.

    Believe me, I myself, and multitudes of others, have been through this.

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 1

    Patrick McPike

    @tkoind2

    Without this you will always have a percentage that fall through capitalism's gaps.

    You have that problem with every system - some percentage falling through the cracks. No system is perfect, so you have to pick your poison, so to speak.

    But I agree, any effective solution will require multiple, significant changes.

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 4

    Patrick McPike

    @tkoind2

    Japanese need to stop being so complacent about their own welfare and become active in politics and in the economy to demand the kinds of changes that the country needs to survive.

    Agree completely, but Japanese society seems to create a borg-like mentality of complacency. Until they start to having more appreciation for 'individuality', and stop trying to hammer down every nail that sticks up, that is not likely to change.

    I've been amazed at how passively Japanese except the fact that they really don't have many (if any) truly enforceable rights. The Japanese legal system is a farce, applied arbitrarily for the benefit of the bureaucracies - generally at the expense of the citizens.

    I've been advising companies in my industry to avoid Japan... until Japan decides to reform (if they ever do).

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 1

    Patrick McPike

    @almxx

    This will happen world-wide, until business operates on very small profit margins and excellent salaries for workers.

    No it will happen until governments stop overspending and putting countries into debt by spending beyond the means of their revenue intake. It doesn't work; never has.

    And until people stop expecting a free, government-provided ride. It doesn't exist.

    If you spend more every month then your paycheck, how long can you go? You can only borrow other people's money for so long, until they cut you off. Governments are no different, they just think that they are. But eventually the credit cards are maxed and the bills come in.

    To paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, the problem with big-government-spending-programs is that eventually you run out of other people's money.

    Posted in: Japan 'no longer a rich country' by 2050: think tank

  • 0

    Patrick McPike

    @sfjp330

    It is hard to tell, because you have mixed in a series of side topics....

    But it sounds like you are agreeing with me that the root cause is with the community needing to encourage and promote the value and importance of education and family values.

    BTW - if you want to fix education, break the current union strangle-hold and pay/promote teachers based on performance; not seniority. Like most things... it's just common sense being battled against by politics.

    Check out - Stupid in America - YouTube http://bit.ly/JbRjZ5

    Posted in: Whatever happened to 'post-racial' America?

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