Wednesday February 15, 2012

Piglet's past comments

  • 0

    Piglet

    (when I write "serious trouble", I mean an scenario a la Argentina in the 90's or the current Greek debacle)

    Posted in: Japan's public debt to hit record Y1,024 trillion

  • 1

    Piglet

    The current debt can be sustained only if:

    1. people accept to receive no interest on their savings (for whatever reason)

    2. people don't start cashing in on their savings

    3. debt service doesn't get significantly higher, reaching or exceeding available income (this requires keeping extremely low interest rates for ever)

    Unfortunately, savings rate has dramatically decreased over the last two decades in Japan, because the increasing number of old people need to use their savings and families cannot afford anymore to save as much as their elders did in light of the struggling economy.

    If tax revenues decrease (due to decreasing of working population resulting from aging population, no immigration and low female participation in the economy), then debt service will represent an even higher percentage of available income.

    Mathematically, Japan will be in serious trouble within 20 years if there is no paradigm change : significantly increased immigration and female participation, lower governmental spending, balanced budget, free trade agreements, increased efficiency of the antiquated portions of the domestic sector, etc...

    Posted in: Japan's public debt to hit record Y1,024 trillion

  • 5

    Piglet

    @johninnaha

    Yakuza activity goes much further than pachinko and massage parlors:

    • extortion through "protection" money, one of their main source of income (in some areas, most of the businesses pay money to them).

    • large scale extortion of big companies (through investments in banks and publicly traded companies) (for example, it was estimated than 1 trillion of debt in Japanese banks is owned by yakuza-related companies)

    • loan-sharking

    • human trafficking (hidden prostitution rings using kidnapped girls)

    • drug trafficking

    • weapons smuggling

    Posted in: Yakuza pundit: New laws unlikely to eradicate gangs

  • -1

    Piglet

    oh I read too fast... again my apologies. Obviously, the effective tax rate is much lower than I wrote above.

    Posted in: If you found a bag with a huge amount of cash, say 10 million yen, would you hand it in to the authorities or keep it?

  • -1

    Piglet

    @cleo

    It still means the government will loot some money from you (almost 50% in case of 10 million yen).

    Posted in: If you found a bag with a huge amount of cash, say 10 million yen, would you hand it in to the authorities or keep it?

  • 1

    Piglet

    thanks cleo for the practical information. My mistake.

    Posted in: If you found a bag with a huge amount of cash, say 10 million yen, would you hand it in to the authorities or keep it?

  • 0

    Piglet

    It is absolutely impossible to prove who is the legitimate owner of paper money, so if you hand the money over to the police, it is most than likely than you will get part of it after 3 months (after government looting through inheritance taxes).

    On the other end, such amounts of money in cash most likely comes from illegal or criminal activities. Nobody stores such big amounts as savings from legit activity (salaries are never paid cash except in shaddy businesses). I wouldn't have any moral problem keeping the cash knowing that I would do better use of it than criminals, but I would probably be scared to do so (by fear of being caught), so I would probably give it to the police. Also, there is a chance this money would be counterfeit, so it is safer to give it to the police (even though the government does not deserve getting its share of it through taxes).

    Posted in: If you found a bag with a huge amount of cash, say 10 million yen, would you hand it in to the authorities or keep it?

  • 0

    Piglet

    @PT24881

    The problem is the population is aging at unprecedented speed and it is increasingly difficult to finance retirement and social systems. Domestic companies will more and more face labor shortage as the working population shrinks (even faster than the general population). Domestic markets will have to adapt to the new situation, but in order to finance the huge debt (200%) and the public spending, Japan will need to stabilize the working population (immigration, higher birth rate, increased participation of women).

    Posted in: Japan's population growth slowest on record in 2010

  • 3

    Piglet

    In addition to my previous post, I would like to add that global companies tend to require English proficiency as they like to move employees between countries as they suit. Some of the employees of the Japan office might be asked to work at some other Asian of foreign headquarters, so it makes sense to require that all the employees speak English.

    Posted in: Adopting English as workplace language in Japan has its downside

  • 3

    Piglet

    We have had quite the same kind of discussions in France, which used to be strongly and proudly monolingual. Increasingly, French companies require English for any kind of jobs. For example, in Paris area, many companies require English proficiency even for basic jobs (cashier, waiter, office, etc...). Of course, France (at least Paris and a few cities) being much more open than Japan, many people need to use English or other languages (Arabic, Chinese) regularly (for interacting with tourists, foreign residents, etc...). In the hotel industry (which I know a little bit), at least in big groups (Accor, etc...), many jobs require at least three spoken languages (including French).

    Japanese companies being increasingly oriented towards global markets (thanks to the shrinking domestic market), it makes sense to put more emphasis on foreign languages (especially English, which is the lingua franca for business all over the world). It would also make sense to require hospitality industry workers to speak fluent English (and maybe Chinese or another foreign language).

    Posted in: Adopting English as workplace language in Japan has its downside

  • 0

    Piglet

    Why separating Japanese nationals from non-Japanese nationals? It doesn't make any sense in economic terms. Both populations pay taxes and use social services. Therefore any economic analysis should include non-Japanese nationals for economic predictions.

    Also, as noticed above, the maths do not add up: a drop of 371,000 Japanese nationals and an increase of 93,000 other nationals should mean that anyway the population decreased overall.

    Posted in: Japan's population growth slowest on record in 2010

  • 2

    Piglet

    @Yubaru

    I bet you won't find any taste difference between domestic Japanese rice and Japanica rice produced in California (as consumer group surveys have shown).

    Right now, the agricultural system is a cartel controlled by JA. Price are regulated and there is no real competition. A Japanese farmer who would want to sell his rice at lower prices (because of better business organization, bigger cultivated surface, more modern harvesting techniques, etc...) would not be allowed to do so because of price control by JA (there is a minimum price).

    This kind of behavior by the government, JA and the farmers, restricts free market mechanisms and does not allow for competition-driven business improvement. Therefore Japanese farmers are the less competitive of the developed world. Instead of focusing with foreign prices, Japanese farmers should focus on find ways to improve their businesses, find ways to be profitable and win market shares domestically and abroad.

    Posted in: Rallies for and against TPP held in Tokyo

  • 1

    Piglet

    Coming from France, a country with a very strong coffee culture (like Italy and the Middle-East), coffee in Japan is pretty much americanized to me. I like going to Starbuck (non-smoking, relaxing, "fun" and seasonal drinks) but I wouldn't compare it to a French or Italian coffee shop serving espressos (and not the diluted coffee-flavored tea American and Japanese call coffee).

    Posted in: Japan's coffee culture

  • 1

    Piglet

    I am a bit surprised at the level observed in one hotspot. 55 µSv/h represents an exposure of 503 mSv/year, which is well above the 100 mSv limit from which you can start observing a statistical increase in radiation-induced cancer. Of course, this is a very limited area and nobody stays on top of it the whole time, but it is nevertheless surprising that one could observe such high values so far from the epicenter. Such values in a larger area would definitely require a mandatory evacuation (well above the 50 mSv limit for defining the evacuation zone around Fukushima).

    Article Unavailable

  • 1

    Piglet

    Samsung is now the world leader for TVs with a 20% global market share (the only country where Samsung doesn't sell TVs is Japan due to protectionist policies). I believe this is just the beginning for Japanese electronic manufacturers: Japan cannot compete anymore in this industry and should refocus on new industries with a global vision (high-end specialized electronics, products adapted for developing countries, etc...).

    Posted in: Panasonic to trim TV business, cut 1,000 jobs

  • 1

    Piglet

    I wouldn't touch any share or bonds from JAL, knowing that their reorganization has been very cosmetic and it still has overall a very traditional organization in collusion with government.

    Posted in: JAL could go public again by Sept 2012: report

  • 1

    Piglet

    Let's take a more libertarian (or classical liberal approach): with freedom comes responsibility. There shouldn't be any bailout or public aid for failed private companies. If the companies get bankrupt, then let's let them go bankrupt. Shareholders (banks, private owners, etc...) cannot be left out of it either. By buying shares and bonds from TEPCO, they also took the risk their investment to be lost. Therefore they shouldn't be protected for their bad investment.

    Posted in: TEPCO asks for Y700 bil in gov't aid to help cover compensation

  • 0

    Piglet

    @rarara

    Trying to put the blame on the least responsible part of the chain is a well known tactic, but it won't change the fact that TEPCO bought the design from the late 60's and then refused to make any adjustment and modification. You are also lying about the fact that local companies "tried" to implement security measures but it would be "refused" by GE. Anyway, GE/Toshiba/Hitachi were responsible for the reactor design, not for the remaining installations (buildings, etc...).

    Posted in: TEPCO asks for Y700 bil in gov't aid to help cover compensation

  • 0

    Piglet

    TEPCO is now lobbying to obtain a liability cap, which would mean that only a fraction of the demands for compensation would be paid by TEPCO.

    I also found this in the Economist:

    TEPCO faces claims for compensation that, in a worst-case scenario, could exceed its assets of ¥15 trillion ($186 billion). No one knows how much it will have to pay. (Oddly, it is the education ministry’s job to issue guidelines for nuclear compensation.) Estimates of TEPCO’s liabilities range between ¥4 trillion and ¥25 trillion. The firm also owes ¥7.8 trillion to bondholders and bank creditors. If TEPCO goes bust, these people take precedence over those affected by the disaster, a fact that is politically radioactive.

    Posted in: TEPCO asks for Y700 bil in gov't aid to help cover compensation

  • 1

    Piglet

    TEPCO has huge assets (including real estate property). I would like first TEPCO to sell most of their assets, ask the shareholders to take responsibility and go bankrupt before help is asked to taxpayers.

    TEPCO is protected by the government (because it is deemed as "too big to fail" and because of intense collusion between TEPCO, the NSA and the government).

    TEPCO enjoys a private monopoly in the whole Kanto area. It is time for this monopoly to end and competitors be allowed to join the market (with domestic or foreign funding).

    Posted in: TEPCO asks for Y700 bil in gov't aid to help cover compensation

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