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12
Troy Morgan
As a member of the earthquake research community here in Tokyo, I would like to mention that the vast majority of scientists in this field feel that near-term earthquake predictions are completely unreliable, and therefore only promote unnecessary panic. It would be like some health experts saying "living in Tokyo causes cancer", then finding out the data on which this is based is a sample of 20 residents out of 35 million.
As to Mr. Bradley, the Tohoku earthquake was not even close to being similar to a Mag 7 in Tokyo. At over 350 km away, earthquake excitation of ground decayed significantly. And most of my colleagues would agree that a Mag 7 event in the Kanto area would be expected to cause widespread structural damage and disruption to transportation systems, although minor loss of life. The codes are specifically designed to provide for life safety in such an event, but not necessarily damage resistance.
Posted in: Big quake could hit Tokyo within 4 years, researchers warn