Monday May 28, 2012

kchoze's past comments

  • -2

    kchoze

    Aliasis

    FOR REAL. I'm a gay woman and it's weird how one of the biggest homophobe arguments is "EW BUTTSEX". and when they think of lesbians it's "lol I support gay marriage as long as both girls are hot..." Yup, stay classy, straight dudes.

    As a straight male who supports the right of homosexuals to marry, I'll call you out on your condemnation of "straight dudes". I'm getting tired of people who are supposed to be enlightened about issues of prejudice and discrimination thinking that it's all right if the target is "dudes". The term "dudes" itself is becoming pejorative, the way it is being used.

    Posted in: Do you support same-sex marriages?

  • 0

    kchoze

    The government must use its direct control of TEPCO to change the corporate culture of ignoring safety issues for the sake of a quick buck. It must not allow the company to continue with business as usual by staying at arm's length from the way the company is run.

    Put safety first, profits second, and allow for more independent appraisal of the safety of its plants. Clean up management. Hire nuclear safety experts to make an inquiry into the company and keep them in the company hierarchy... Ideally include foreign experts, or at least experts not already embedded in Japan's nuclear industry, so they won't be afraid to point our problems.

    Posted in: Gov't to control up to 76% of TEPCO voting rights

  • 0

    kchoze

    It's temporary. The reconstruction following the tsunami is increasing spending in the economy, which leads to growth. But the reconstruction won't last forever, it will end and so will this economic growth. I doubt that it will be sufficient to clear out the long-term problems of Japan's economy.

    In the long-term, Japan needs a weaker Yen, it is losing its manufacturing sector to the strong Yen.

    Posted in: Growth figures show Japan on recovery track

  • 0

    kchoze

    I only like movies that are really self-consciously kitschy and that use 3D to be even more kitsch. Drive Angry for example was awesome, because it doesn't pretend to be anything but a fun lightweight homage to old exploitation flicks. Harold and Kumar also was fun, because they use it only as a funny gimmick, and they were very transparent about it.

    Otherwise, 3D is horrible. When the movie tries to be serious and they use this gimmick, it just doesn't work well.

    Posted in: Do you enjoy watching movies in 3D?

  • 0

    kchoze

    Well, this news provides dictionaries with a new example for the term "suicide", definition 2: destruction of one's own interests or prospect, ex: Japan's and South Korea's free trade agreement with China was an economic suicide.

    Seriously, China is a currency manipulator, you don't sign free trade with countries like that! And the theory of free trade has been shown time and again to be an horrible idea between a developed country and a developing country, as the lower prices and wages of the developing country, if not balanced by tariffs, result in a displacement of the manufacturing sector. As 75-80% of international trade involves manufactured goods and natural resources, this creates an enormous trade deficit in the developed country, which leads to an impoverishment of its population and the creation of debt bubbles.

    Free trade may make some sense between countries with similar standards of living and cost levels, but with such a mismatched pair, it would be completely disastrous.

    Free trade is an example of something that works well in theory, but that works horribly once you start considering real-world situations and incorporate details in the analysis.

    Posted in: Japan, China, S Korea agree to start free-trade talks

  • 0

    kchoze

    T_rexmaxytime

    SONY used to be great but now it's kind of sucky. I like walkman lineup cause the sound quality is awesome but there is nothing original about it....

    The noise cancellation system in the walkman is superb. It shuts you off from the surroundings.

    If SONY offers noise cancellation in its music player, something that no other company does, then it's an original offering. Note also that the iPod product line has been pretty much stagnant for around 5 years now, apart from the iPod Touch which simply gets last year's tech from the iPhone.

    I have been tempted to buy SONY to replace my iPod as I heard great things about the sound quality, but the capacity offered is way too small for the price. Had they simply put a microSD slot in their devices, I'd currently have one of their music player. But they didn't, so I don't have one.

    Posted in: It's a Sony

  • 1

    kchoze

    WilliB

    Of the countries you insultingly refer to as "PIIGS", only Greece had recent irresponsible fiscal policies. Ireland and Spain were paragons of fiscal virtue, with low public debt and surpluses right until the crisis. Italy had a high public debt, but had it under control, with a large primary surplus. Portugal was a mixed bag.

    It's not about "fiscal irresponsibility" as you insinuate with the insulting PIIGS acronym, that's a myth, it's about investors (including a very large part of Germans) creating bubbles in these countries and building up inflation, then the euro preventing readjustments after the bubbles blew up, leaving wage prices out of whack with the rest of the world. The poor economic prospects then make owning the debts much riskier.

    Posted in: Azumi urges Hollande to stick to fiscal reform plans

  • 2

    kchoze

    Dale Berry

    I'm not rich, but I hope to be one day and I dont like the idea of someone taking 75% of anyones money to be honest. How can you warrant only letting someone have 25% of what they earned? I admit some rich people dont earn their money, but many do!

    It's not 75% of their entire income, it's 75% of their income above 1 million. So someone earning 2 millions would pay the existing rates on the first million and pay 75% on the second. I'll also point out that few if any people earn that much money from their own work, they usually do so by owning shares or by getting way overpaid for being CEO of big companies. The idea that it's economically bad because it "discourages" work is meaningless as most of the people who earn those incomes don't earn them through their own work, so there is nothing to discourage.

    Though this would be about as high a marginal income tax rate as has been used in France, the US used to have even higher marginal tax rates. The highest marginal tax rate in the US after WWII until the 1960s was 91%. It was above 70% from 1937 to 1980. Contrarily to what faux "experts" claim, these tax rates accompanied the most robust and lasting economic growth the US have ever seen.

    I think that is because as most people who get such high income do it by owning or running a company, they were encouraged not to "cash in" on the company's revenues, but instead to reinvest that money into it. If the company grew in value, they would own more, but it wouldn't be "income" as such. So high income marginal rates encourage investments in the real economy. Also, it cut down on moral hazard, as we can see currently that when CEOs are paid too much, they become disconnected from the fate of the companies they run, they don't care if they run them to the ground because they have more money than they will ever be able to spend.

    Of course it will happen! that is why most industrial/production centers are in third world countries now, because of high tax and wage demands.

    And that is why free trade is an idiocy with third world countries. For the economy in the long-term, wages MUST be high. If wages are low, it incites economic decision-makers to waste human resources, the most universal and versatile resource the economy has. Low wages discourage investments to increase productivity, because it makes such investments unprofitable.

    Not only that, but production and consumption go hand in hand. Consumer spending must follow economic production, as what is produced must be consumed. But if wages are low, that means that consumers, who get their income from wages, don't have the means to consume what they produce. This results in increased consumer debts and in major economic crises. It is not a coincidence that the two moments in the past 100 years where wealth was the most concentrated at the top were 1929 and 2007, and both saw major financial crises follow.

    Posted in: Japan monitoring European reaction to Hollande win

  • 0

    kchoze

    WilliB

    ...and in what way would that be? He wants to borrow and spend even more, but government borrowing and spending does not solve a debt oroblem, it only pushes it down the road. And Germany can only bail out the lender banks for so long. Eventually, that will come to an end too.

    For the moment, more spending is what the economy needs. As consumers and private companies' willingness or ability to increase spending are lacking, and the credit market is constrained for private borrowers, the only place where help can come from is the governments. The eurozone is a mess, as the individual countries have lost the ability to control their currency, which makes them vulnerable to runs on their debts, but France can still borrow at reasonable interest levels, and Germany borrows at near-nil rates (like the UK, which has more debt problems than Spain... but it has its own currency, proving how essential monetary control is).

    One thing is for sure, austerity, right now, is counter-productive. To reduce the deficit by 1 euro, countries have to cut 2-3 euros, because their economies are so weak that cutting spending slows the economy down further and therefore reduces the government revenues and increases mandatory spending (like unemployment insurance, needed if you don't want people to starve to death). For example, from 2010 to 2011, Greece has reduced spending by around 6,4 billion euros and it has increased taxes so that government revenues are 40,9% of GDP instead of 39,7%, the GDP of 2010 was around 227 billions, so you'd expect this increase to be around 2,7 billions more.

    So 6,4 billions in spending cuts and 2,7 billions in tax increases, that would mean the deficit would fall by 9,1 billions, right? WRONG. It did fall, but by less than 4 billions. The deficit was 23,5 billions in 2010, it has been lowered to 19,6 billions in 2011. (source: Eurostat)

    Note that these estimates I made likely underestimated the size of spending cuts as the faltering economy likely increased spending in mandatory last resort social programs. That means that austerity is even less efficient at reducing the deficit than it seems.

    The economy has been so thoroughly wasted by this austerity that it is quite likely that a large part of the economic losses have become permanent. Meaning that there will be no recovery, Greece will grow, when it eventually does, from a lower level than it had before the crisis. That is what is called an "L shape" recovery. The GDP trend will permanently be lowered, which will mean that the debt burden (debt/GDP) will be higher than it would be otherwise, and that's what matters.

    To tackle the debt problem, the economy must grow. With austerity, the economy won't, making the debt problem worse. With Hollande pushing for a "growth pact" and stimulative policies, this may rescue the european economy, and thus make the debt burden in the long term lighter, even if it means higher deficits in the short-term.

    The time for austerity will come... when the economy will be in its "boom" period, with an expanding private sector that will be able to fill in the holes left by reduced public spending.

    Of course it does. But by bank intervention it can only do that for a very short time. It is a wasted effort. This is the short-term thinking that I was referring to. Please read a message before commenting on it.

    It's not wasted because the European Union may be seen as next to a precipice. If it falls now, who knows where it will stop? But if it can be kept away from the edge for a short while, it may right itself. That's why short-term interventions may save the long-term.

    Posted in: Japan monitoring European reaction to Hollande win

  • 2

    kchoze

    WilliB

    Well, if Japan is sensible it will stop trying to prop up the collapsing Euro scheme by buying Euros and lending money to the ESM. But that would take a long-term outlook, and politicians are always firmly stuck in the short term.

    Shows how little you know economics.

    The European Union is a very big client of the Japanese economy. It is one of the few partners they have with which they have a trade surplus, sending tens of billions more to them than they import. It is important for Japanese manufacturing that they keep being able to export to Europe, and for that, they need a strong Euro. If the Euro falls in value, European countries will find Japanese products too expensive and stop importing from Japan. They will either turn even more to China, or towards local production of goods.

    Japan has an interest in propping up the Euro.

    Posted in: Japan monitoring European reaction to Hollande win

  • -1

    kchoze

    This is a great thing for Europe and the world. Though there will be risks of changing course and of German reaction to attempts at it, these risks are nothing compared to the damages the present course towards austerity are causing and will cause in the future.

    Already unemployment in Spain, Greece and Ireland is sky-high and not falling. The poor state of those economies mean that they have become LESS likely to be able to repay their debts than if they hadn't cut spending and raised taxes (ie, austerity). With the German plan for Europe, this would have spread to ever more countries, and brought back the Great Depression in Europe.

    Though it's a bit early, I also note that the markets seem to believe that Hollande's election is good for the ability of France to afford its debt, the interests on France's 10-year bond has not jumped, but fallen a bit, more than Germany's bonds. If they were expecting an irresponsible government that would weaken France's fiscal position, they would be trying to get rid of these bonds, not trying to buy them, which would result in interest rates increasing significantly.

    Posted in: Japan monitoring European reaction to Hollande win

  • 0

    kchoze

    When one's reality leads to despair, they'll do anything to evade it in their fantasies. For just one taste of a better life, they will do anything, even if it's all fake. Is this any worse than the millions of people all across the world, committing crimes, selling their bodies, just to get drugs to reach artificial nirvanas for a few minutes or hours?

    This is the great irony of modern life. We have never been as well off materially, but emotionally, misery is still sky-high. I remember on another article here a commenter asking why people should care about the young being involuntarily celibate... this is why.

    If they had good jobs, a strong circle of friends and girlfriends they loved and who loved them back, you think they would have done it?

    Posted in: Gang robs 66 residences to get money for maid cafes, AKB48 concerts

  • 0

    kchoze

    Your whining about social welfare is ridiculous. As I said, nearly all western countries have similar programs. Your claim that the age of pensions must be 70 is laughable and unsupported by the facts. Not only that, but it is inhumane, working in their 60s is OK for CEOs or engineers who get to sit behind a desk in a AC-controlled environment all day, it's quite a different thing for manual laborers or workers in the service industry. For these people, working in the 60s is basically impossible for all but a few exceptions, as their bodies can't bear the strain of working at manual jobs for decades on end.

    As I said, I preferred Chevènement, Hollande is too soft. The main problem of French competitiveness is the Euro. The Euro is too expensive for France, it is being used by Germany for the same reason the Chinese use currency manipulation, to keep the currency cheap and thus stay competitive internationally and get huge trade surpluses. Germany skewed the rules of the monetary union and every other european country is suffering from it while they are making out like thieves.

    Frankly, the FN might not be so bad if they withdrew from the Euro as they promised.

    As to creating government jobs in a recession... it's the BEST time to do so. When in a recession, the government must stimulate the economy, not cut its spending, further weakening it. Why don't you look at what Merkel's imposed austerity in Spain, Italy, Ireland or Greece is doing to their economies? They're crashing because of austerity, which actually makes austerity counter-productive because the government loses a lot of revenues and the debt to GDP ratio explodes. Look also at the UK, they seemed to be recovering relatively well when the Conservatives got in and implemented deep austerity, the result? It's official, the UK is now back in recession. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, they say, well the pudding of your austerity has been eaten, and it's unsuitable for human consumption.

    Posted in: Hollande beats Sarkozy in first round of France's presidential election

  • 1

    kchoze

    Madverts, you repeat a lot of right-wing canards that have been proven wrong again and again and again. A generous social welfare net doesn't tend to increase significantly unemployment or make people into "lazy bums". BTW, your main "villain", the RMI, had less than 1,6 million recipients in a population of around 60 millions... not the untold millions you pretend, "with their grubby hands out".

    Furthermore, similar programs exist in most western societies, like the UK, Ireland, Sweden and Germany.

    As to your questions, Hollande plans to reduce pension to 60 years of age for those who have 40 years of work, which is quite fair I believe. He would fund it by increasing contributions by 0,1% (so someone earning 30 000 euros would pay 30 euros more a year).

    He doesn't plan to freeze gas prices forever, just temporarily. This has been done before, noticeably during the first Gulf War. When prices increase because of heedless speculation, as they are doing now, a temporary freeze may not have disastrous effects.

    As to how he wants to stimulate growth, he plans to create a public investment bank to invest in France to help grow the economy and to increase investments and assistance to the economy, founding these initiatives by taxing the richest. This isn't a bad idea. The present crisis is a lack in demand in the economy because most consumers have too much debt and so reduce their spending to pay down their debts. But the rich don't spend much of their money, they mostly save it. Taxing them more and injecting that money in the economy, thus increasing demand, it could do wonders for the economy.

    Posted in: Hollande beats Sarkozy in first round of France's presidential election

  • 1

    kchoze

    Serrano

    Why does there have to be a second round? Didn't Hollande get the most votes?

    That's how the French presidential election works. There is a first round, then a second one with the two most popular candidates. That way, you make sure that the one who is elected isn't elected just because he got "in the middle" between two other candidates. For example, you can't have a left-winger win because the right-wing split its vote between two or three candidates, or vice versa. This is a much better system than the system used in the US for example, where if there is a third candidate, it creates a situation where anyone can win, even if 60% of the people hate that person's guts and would never vote for him.

    Madverts

    Electing a left-winger in an economic crisis like this one is the best time for it. Right-wing orthodoxy has created the problems that Europe face and the endless financial crisis. Especially the Euro and its right-wing "stable currency" rules imposed by Germany which benefited Germany and no other country. Before the Euro, Italy, France, Spain and others had similar industrial production growth to Germany. After the Euro, Germany's industrial production accelerated whereas it stagnated in most other countries, creating huge trade deficits, weakening their economies.

    Go google graphs revealing industrial production for major european economies before and after the introduction of the Euro, you'll see that the difference is quite clear. Germany has an industrial boom, other countries have stagnation.

    To end the crisis, you need to get out of the box of orthodox right-wing dogmas. I wished Hollande had been stronger on this, but he is still more likely to do this than Sarkozy, who was complicit in this absurd situation.

    Blaming Mitterand is just absurd. He's been gone 17 years and he's supposed to be responsible for everything? That's a joke and an insult to people's intelligence.

    As to the FN, there are a lot of FN supporters who will simply stay home according to the polls. The FN was the clearest vote for euroskeptics and so-called "sovereignists", for people who believe that the European Union is screwing up France. Sarkozy isn't an acceptable choice for these people, as he is the one most likely to continue on giving up more and more sovereignty to European technocrats. Many of these people are right-wing, but they will stay home rather than vote for a right-wing candidate who disagrees with them on such a vital issue.

    BTW, people have been polling FN supporters for their second round choice. 20 to 30% go for Hollande, 35 to 45% of them go to Sarkozy.

    Hollande had about 29% of the vote. He gets almost everyone who voted for more left-wing candidates (15%), let's say 90%. That means he is up to 42% already versus 27% for Sarkozy. Then there is Bayrou, whose voters seem to break almost 50-50, but with a small edge for Sarkozy, so let's say 40-60. He got 9%, so let's add 40% of 9% to Hollande. He's already up to 45-46%, versus 33% for Sarkozy.

    If 80% of FN voters go to vote at the second round, the rest staying home, it means that Sarkozy must win about 90% of FN voters in order to beat Hollande. No poll suggests that he's got anywhere near that level of support amongst them.

    Unless there's a big surprise in the campaign, Hollande is going to win. I'd estimate with about 53% of the vote versus 47% of the vote for Sarkozy, considering the levels of support of every candidate in the first round and the second round intentions of their supporters according to polls.

    Posted in: Hollande beats Sarkozy in first round of France's presidential election

  • 1

    kchoze

    I personally would have preferred Chevènement, as he was one of the few voices of reason that opposed the Euro and the European treaties for good economic reasons, but unfortunately his heresies have made him a pariah of the mainstream parties.

    Anyway, anything is better than Sarkozy. Hollande at least leaves the possibility of France standing up to Germany and trying to end this endless downward spiral of austerity-crisis that Merkel is imposing upon the rest of Europe to protect Germans' investments, even if other people have to suffer for it. Anything that may shift the disastrous direction that Merkel-Sarkozy have taken Europe in is quite welcome.

    Ironically, as a left-winger, I think the Front National's economic policy was the best amongst the different parties, at least in how it relates to Europe and trade. In other words, protectionism against third world countries, getting out of the Euro and reintroducing the Franc, getting out of the treaties that violate France's sovereignty, allowing France's government to borrow directly from its Central Bank at nearly 0% interest, ending forced privatizations because of European treaties, etc... Quite frankly, at this point, with the unwillingness of the Germans and technocrats to revise the rules of the European Union that have been biased in their favor, the FN's plan for Europe is probably the least bad option.

    The FN's actually pretty left-wing on economic matters, from what I can see.

    Anyway, I'm hoping at least that Hollande is able to force Merkel to implement economic growth-support in treaties so that the solution to everything isn't just "more austerity", something that is just leading Europe on the path to a Long Depression.

    Posted in: Hollande beats Sarkozy in first round of France's presidential election

  • 0

    kchoze

    The people who celebrate this are not thinking long-term or about the entire issue. In the long-run, it's not nuclear power, but fossil fuels which are going to damage the world and the environment. To compensate the shutdown of reactors, they will burn more coal and gas than ever before, which will increase respiratory problems because of air pollution, it will contribute to hasten climate change and bring a whole lot of air pollution issues.

    Nuclear power is a good thing, as in it's much less bad than the realistic alternatives. It just needs to be regulated tightly for safety... what failed wasn't nuclear power, it was the system of collusion between the industry and the government which silenced safety organizations in Japan. France has a lot of nuclear reactors and it has had no major accident, because their nuclear safety organization is independent from government and industry and they act as a good watchdog, plus their operators are publicly owned, so they have less incentives to cut corners on safety to make more profits.

    Posted in: Japan to be without nuclear power after May 5

  • -2

    kchoze

    I must admit a bit of schadenfreude here. I've been hearing so many smug Mac users claiming that Macs are just so goshdarn better, that they never get viruses or malwares, that they are just faster and in everything better that I'm just happy when some news come out like this and brings them back to earth.

    It's not even like I'm the fans of other OS. I like Windows and use it, but I'm not a fan of it in no way, I have installed linux distros on my computer. I have an Android tablet, and I like it, but I'm no Android fan either. But the sheer proselytizing drive of Mac users really get on my nerves. It's like Jehovah's Witnesses, I may not be religious, but if people come and try to convert me, I tend to dislike them and their religion very much,

    Posted in: Hackers hitting Macs with virus: industry experts

  • 0

    kchoze

    sfjp330

    Huh... no.

    Companies do not have enough money to be able to significantly influence the strength of the currency of a country as big as China. If companies move part of their operations in China, it's because of the weak Yuan, and not the other way around as you claim.

    We know how the Chinese government manipulates its currency, we know it does so. To counteract the amount of US dollars that are exchanged in Yuans as Americans buy Chinese products, the Chinese use their Yuans to buy US Treasury bills, exchanging large amounts of their currency for US dollars. That's why the Chinese government owns a bigger share of US debt than any other government and more than American households, the only two bigger holders of US debt are the Federal Reserve and Social Security.

    So we know how they do it, we know how they do it and we can prove they do it.

    Posted in: Strong yen encouraging production outside Japan: Ghosn

  • 2

    kchoze

    kurisupisu

    It makes sense. If there is an accident, the reactor is stopped until it is ascertained that the situation that led to the accident has been corrected. If the reactor was kept working as there was an emergency going on in the plant, people would protest, and rightly so.

    Posted in: Radioactive fluid leaks at French nuclear reactor

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