nigelboy's past comments

  • -12

    nigelboy

    I really don't understand why so many people are against the election, if I remember correctly, 80% of the people here are avidly against the things Abe has been pushing (secret act, restarting nuclear power plants, collective self defence and attempted changes to article 9). Then Abe gives voters the opportunity to shoot him down and now everyone is pissed about that.

    So true. You notice that many here have not even posted a single alternative plan, pretty much like the opposition parties.

    Posted in: Voters to Abe: Why call an election now?

  • -2

    nigelboy

    A referendum on the issue would've been a more practical option than a snap election. Whatever the results, the economic situation will be the same if Abe returns, or another takes his place.

    A referendum only applies to 'revising the Constitution'. Furthermore, by instituting the referendum, you are basically opening up to more costs as well as eliminating the legislature all together.

    Well that's a great accompanying photo of the Japanese prime minister, arms crossed sitting in an opulent-looking chair while wearing an expensive suit. Abe looks like a defeated man who is not in great health. I believe he has vowed to resign if the LDP does not win a clear majority (238) of the 475-seat lower house (currently 480; will be reduced by 5 after next election). LDP currently holds 294 seats, so it would need to lose 57 to no longer have a majority.

    The photo is during the Upper house committee where the bill was concerning the revitalization of the urban areas which the opposition parties had previously decided to attend but did not do so after the announcement of dissolution by Abe. Hence, it was the opposition that decided to create a 'vacuum'.

    Japan is officially in a recession and it is entirely the fault of Abe and his flawed economic policies. Common sense would dictate that the LDP really ought to fail to win a majority of seats in the 14 December election. Of course, the seats are grossly mal-apportioned in favor of rural areas. But there is no reason conservative rural residents should interpret two consecutive quarters of totally needless economic contraction in a manner any different from their urban counterparts. Those numbers are a symptom of a totally failed economic policy program. Who knows, maybe Japan's voters will shock everybody and force Shinzo Abe to resign.

    The two consecutive quarter decrease occurred as a result of increase in consumption tax. This is a no brainer when you actually look into the GDP numbers where the two decreases are private residential investment (-6.7%) and corporate investment. (-0.2%)-i.e. big ticket items.

    Also, the top 5 voting districts (Hokkaido 1st, Tokyo 1st, Tokyo 3rd, Tokyo 5th, Hyogo 6th) were all won by LDP candidates so please, spare your uneducated Western origin cliche.

    Most unlikely scenario but one that would really send a strong message to Japan's nepotistic, sclerotic, hidebound, and basically clueless politicians: Abe losing his own district in Yamaguchi Prefecture. Honestly, the guy really deserves to lose. He's been in the Diet for 21 years, served two separate tenures as prime minister. He's had his chances and blown them. He is a man completely out of any good ideas for his fellow citizens and non-citizen residents of Japan.

    ala Hatoyama lead regime change? No thank you. I think the general public learned a harsh lesson not to vote for 'pie in the sky' manifesto. If anybody 'deserves' to lose are thosekey lawmakers who went along with this. Got one to retire. Hope to get a couple more ousted in this next coming election.

    Posted in: Gov't defends election over 'waste of money' criticism

  • -3

    nigelboy

    True, but, PM Abe embraced it, and made it a big part of his economic plan. He was under no obligation to implement the tax. He could've repealled the law, but, rather bizarrely, thinks higher costs are an incentive for people to spend more.

    No he did not. The tri-party agreement was concluded when Tanigaki was the head of the LDP. With the upward economic number during last year, Abe had very little choice but to accept the initial raise as per what the law indicated (as per article 19)

    Wages aren't up by much, and certainly, the increase isn't enough to offset the higher costs the new tax imposes everybody. Not to mention the affects of a devalued yen will have on the economy.

    That's my point. Some people who posted here can't separate between the affects of Abenomics and the affects of the rise in consumption tax.

    Consumer spending is up from what it had been in the summer, but it's nowhere near where it was January-March of this year. That should've been a very clear sign to the government that an increase in consumption taxes isn't wise in this anemic economy.

    You are essentially comparing the months leading up to the implementation of the increase in tax rate which most economists as a one time anomaly.

    OK, there's been some improvement, but, it's way to early to celebrate the recent rise in consumer spending. It could very well be seasonal. Kids going back to school, spending for the upcoming winter holidays, etc.

    The link I gave above is 'seasonally adjusted' and is comparing the same quarter from last year.

    Posted in: Abe adviser calls for stimulus after 'shocking' GDP

  • -4

    nigelboy

    By dissolving parliament for an election Abe can clear the slate and once again reshuffle his cabinet, said Michael Cucek, a Tokyo-based analyst and fellow at Temple University Japan.

    Wow. What a brilliant analysis (sarcasm).

    Asked by other 'analysts' not from the West, they give out many factors one of which is to keep the Ministry of Finance and those within LDP who want to raise taxes to keep their mouths shut for the time being. Or to emphasize the fact that the opposition party have been simply going against Abe's policy without offering viable alternative solutions.

    Posted in: Diet to be dissolved Friday afternoon

  • -14

    nigelboy

    The government “should launch economic policies… rather than spending 60 billion yen on the election,” Keiichiro Asao, head of the minor opposition Your Party, said ahead of the announcement.

    i.e. "Our party just broke up because of you. Wahhhh!!"

    Posted in: Gov't defends election over 'waste of money' criticism

  • -2

    nigelboy

    In the Central Washington town of Moses Lake, BMW just doubled the size of its carbon fiber factory. This same city has lobbied Boeing more than once to be considered an alternate site for 787 and 777 parts manufacturing. The only explanations for Toray getting the contract is that they will manufacture in China or they bribed Boeing because the transport costs - less than 3 hours via freeway versus 12 hours flying or a week's ocean freight - are easily in the local producers favor.

    It states on the SGL Moses Lake site that they are increasing the capacity for automotive needs.

    Toray also has a plant in Tacoma, WA.

    According to Nikkei, Toray is the clear market leader with Teijin at second. Third and fourth are Mitsubishi Rayon and SGL, respectively.

    Posted in: Toray to supply carbon fiber to Boeing in $8.6 bil deal

  • -1

    nigelboy

    New York State Department of Financial Services said.

    I often wondered where such 'fines' went.

    http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/albany-politics/french-bank-pays-22-billion-to-new-york-state-20140701

    If you're lucky, the state can hit a jackpot.

    http://www.dfs.ny.gov/reportpub/annual/dfs_annualrpt_2013.pdf

    From $942,016,152 (Total Department Receipts for 2012) to $1,291,798,190 (Total Department Receipts for 2013)

    Posted in: Mitsubishi UFJ fined $315 mil in U.S. over Iran sanctions violations

  • -3

    nigelboy

    You needn't bother posting links to this .pdf or that if you can't just answer a simple question

    Have you ever considered that the question in of itself is 'vague'?

    Posted in: Abe adviser calls for stimulus after 'shocking' GDP

  • -4

    nigelboy

    Last year Japan's tax revenue was about $450 billion. If revenue increased 10%, that makes this year's revenue about $495 billion. But a 1.6% decrease in GDP equals about $74 billion lost to the economy, right? This significantly outweighs the gain of $45 million. And then we can add the further $50 billion spent to stimulate the economy after the tax increase. So the government managed to net an increase of $45 billion, at a cost to the the taxpayers and economy of about $125 billion? Are we supposed to be happy about this?

    sangetsu03

    You did a complete 180 for your initial premise is that the tax revenue decreased which you now admit is a mistake. In addition, I don't know why you would lump the -1.6% GDP annualized figure (not even taking in what the 4Q numbers are) along with the $50 billion government spending in the same column. Perhaps a basic review of what constitutes a GDP figure is in order here.

    Posted in: Aso says sales tax hike delay must not happen again

  • -6

    nigelboy

    How is saying that the consumption tax is for social security spending not window dressing? How about paying for defence? Education? Police? Roads? It doesn't matter which item you say the tax revenues is for, the government still needs to borrow almost half the money that it is spending. Why does it matter what the consumption tax is ear-marked for under such circumstances?

    Competing ministries where MHLW want dibs. I guess since that ministries spends the most, they get first choice.

    Yeah but even if you don't think the debt is a problem I don't know why you wouldn't agree that it's window dressing...

    I didn't disagree.

    What was his deadline? I understand he's been making bets on problems in Japan, and given the 30% loss in value of the yen over the past couple of years, I'd guess he's made some money? Of course you're free to believe whatever you like, but personally I don't think Japan's massive debts relative to it's ability to manage them is without significant risk.

    1. Now 2016. He bets on CDS. He's wrong, of course.

    Posted in: Aso says sales tax hike delay must not happen again

  • -6

    nigelboy

    Sure it's a good idea, but the issue I have is that it's just window dressing, because the government is still running a whopping great budget deficit. (This is why I didn't go to the effort of reading the details.)

    Only window dressing going on here are IMF, their shareholder in Ministry of Finance, and the current head in Aso who wants more money to play with.

    But you're preaching to the wrong guy for I don't believe in 'must reduce government debt' school of Kyle Bass who keeps extending the Japanese Great Collapse deadline.

    Posted in: Aso says sales tax hike delay must not happen again

  • -2

    nigelboy

    I never mentioned "Lift the moratorium". Lets be honest here! If they need our tax money to survive then lets put that up for a vote and see how many Japanese want to subsidize this industry. And this antarctic hunt isn't about tradition or culture because*

    I'm not talking about the antarctic. I'm proposing the idea which was suggested by the U.S. to allow coastal whaling commercially in return for ceasing the Antarctic research. Of course, this was rejected by Australia.

    As to the vessels, ICR can and will reform into a limited company if the moratorium is lifted.

    Posted in: Japan cuts Antarctic whale catch quota

  • -4

    nigelboy

    Since the hunt hadn't been financially viable to begin with ("controversial program, which sees taxpayer-subsidies"), and their plan is to cut the quota by two-thirds, what's the point of continuing it other than to protect a dying industry and keep their political base content. Is it necessary for the government to save traditional/cultural industries, such as whaling, silk producers, and Katana craftsman and the like, using our tax money if sales of these products isn't sufficient to sustain said industries?

    Yes, Mr. Perfect. Lift the moratorium, cut the subsidies, and let the industry die naturally.

    Posted in: Japan cuts Antarctic whale catch quota

  • -3

    nigelboy

    Funny, it seems "the government's officlal data" has generally been wrong, hasn't it? As Simon said, if unemployment is down, and wages are up, why isn't the economy growing? If more people are working, and getting better pay, shouldn't things be getting better instead of worse?

    As I alluded to Simon above, are you stating that the 'shocking GDP' report in this article could be WRONG as well? Or do you simply believe the figures that best suit your argument?

    Your assertion that "Wages are not up (unless you are a bureaucrat), overall employment is down" was wrong. That was the base of your long paragraph above. But if you are going in the route of not basing your judgement on government figures, what are you basing it on?

    Posted in: Abe adviser calls for stimulus after 'shocking' GDP

  • -2

    nigelboy

    Odd, isn't it, that if wages, employment and consumption are indeed all up according to the government's no doubt reliable figures (sic), Japan is in recession. Something does not quite add up.

    The determination of 'recession' were based on the so-called government numbers. Don't resist that either? Lol.

    You could have a private consumption go up and the wages go up and still have a negative GDP growth. You just have to understand the BASIC concept of what constitutes a GDP.

    In any case, my first link above gives you the breakdown. It looks like you didn't bother to read them.

    Posted in: Abe adviser calls for stimulus after 'shocking' GDP

  • -2

    nigelboy

    That still does not make him PM by mandate nor election by the Japanese public. Also he was elected leader AFTER the election, which is common in Japanese politics as well

    That's how parliamentary system works.

    After the LDP won, in a landslide by the way, election Abe won the party leadership role after a run off, LDP internal election in 2012 against Ishiba not before

    LDP Presidential election was in September of 2012.

    Posted in: Abe set to call election, delay tax hike

  • -9

    nigelboy

    And if you believe that's where it actually goes I've got that unicorn you've ordered on several occasions.

    Smith. It's the reformed law. What part of the link did you not understand?

    I'm too lazy to read the details to find out otherwise for myself, but isn't this just semantics? In any case the government is borrowing massive amounts of money each year. It's not like they wouldn't make social security payments if the consumption tax revenues fell short, is it

    Perhaps you should read them because it's essentially trying to match a certain revenue stream with a specific government outlay. Prior to that, the various tax revenues were all lumped together into general accounts and disbursed to different ministries. ?

    Posted in: Aso says sales tax hike delay must not happen again

  • -15

    nigelboy

    I am willing to pay even 15%-20% in consumption tax if my tax money went directly to support social welfare and ONLY social welfare like the government is claiming it needs my money for.

    That's what the law stipulates which was passed in 2012.

    http://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/hokabunya/shakaihoshou/kaikaku.html

    Posted in: Aso says sales tax hike delay must not happen again

  • -2

    nigelboy

    Please take some time to understand the election process here, the voters didnt elect Abe as their leader, his party did.

    His party elected to him the 'leader' before the general election. He became the 'face' of the party in the election.

    Posted in: Abe set to call election, delay tax hike

  • -2

    nigelboy

    Are these figures to be taken as seriously as all of the other published figures? like those which predicted GDP growth of 2.4% for Q3? Or 2% annualized inflation? Or the tax increase generating 5 trillion yen in additional revenue? Have any of these numbers, which were predicted by the best minds which the finance ministry and their Todai and Harvard-edcuated economists panned out?

    I meant to say "Overall employement up for 7 consecutive periods (quarters)"

    It's not a prediction. It's government's official data and not the "private" ones predicting the 'growth'.

    Posted in: Abe adviser calls for stimulus after 'shocking' GDP

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