sangetsu03's past comments

  • -3

    sangetsu03

    Sangetsu that's weird because when I met with Satsuki Katayama ( The Ministry of Trade and Industry ) last week she did not know it was over nor did she seem to think it was, she was talking about business and was quite buoyant in her outlook. ( I have a photo of the meeting to prove it if you doubt me )

    Really? A politician appointed by the current administration told you "all is well?" And, funnier yet, you believed her? One of my first jobs in Japan was to review reports written by her predecessor, whom I worked with several times. He was not "buoyant" as we looked over his ministry's figures, which at the time estimated that Japan's population would fall to 78 million by 2050, and that Japan would decline to the world's 5th or 6th largest economy. I attended a hanami party with his boss, one of the former DPJ PM's, and he was not particularly buoyant either. I have met with the chairmen and CEO's of Japan' largest companies and conglomerates, I can't name a single one who is optimistic about Japan's situation.

    Posted in: Abe can’t pump his chest to say he won the will of Japanese people. He must realize it’s imperative to bring some benefits to the Japanese people.

  • 0

    sangetsu03

    Abenomics measures where made for them. Yet, they find how to complain, just to make sure they will not have to rise the salaries as Abe wants to.

    Really? You seem not to understand that large car companies are made up of separate divisions, overseas and domestic. If you go to America you will see many Japanese cars, but most of these "Japanese" cars are built in American factories by American workers. The profits these American/Japanese divisions make is generally reinvested in America, and not returned to Japan. The overall sales and profits of the company may look good, but those profits tend to stay in the regions where they are generated, hence Toyota worldwide sales see strong profits, while Toyota Japan loses $6 billion or so in 2014.

    Posted in: Japan auto lobby sounds alarm over weak domestic sales

  • 2

    sangetsu03

    But of course there are those who will say "Japanese companies are making record profits, and are sitting on piles of cash", but those are companies which are exporters who now produce most of their goods outside Japan. They also keep their profits outside Japan, if they are smart, that is.

    Japan's automakers have been losing money on domestic sales in Japan for many years. The reasons have nothing to do with wages. They have to do with the absurdly high cost of owning a car in Japan. The road tax, gas tax, two year inspection charges, high road tolls, and parking costs have driven the domestic Japanese auto industry under.

    Some might think that owning cars is a bad thing, and that it is good that fewer people own and drive cars. But you must remember that the auto industry is a large employer, and not just the factories themselves. There are accessory shops, repair shops, car washes, and other industries which are closely associated.

    Lastly, most of Japan is not urban, it is rural, and to get around people need cars. By increasing the cost of owning and operating a car, people tend to go out and drive less, and drive for shorter distances. This means that they don't travel to neighbouring towns and for shopping, or weekend holidays, etc. And people in the suburbs tend not to venture out far, so the outlying towns and places in the countryside get few city visitors who spend money during their visits. This is another reason for the decline of rural populations. Also, money spent on car-related expenses is money which cannot be spent on clothes, food, housing, or raising children.

    Posted in: Japan auto lobby sounds alarm over weak domestic sales

  • 0

    sangetsu03

    I was talking about tax cut, and the tax cut don't seem to pass on to customers or salaries.

    How would we know? There has never been a tax cut, has there?

    Most companies spend more on tax than they do on payroll, do you realize that? Every yen spent on tax is one yen which cannot be spent on pay or benefits.

    Posted in: Gov't considering 2.5% corporate tax cut from fiscal 2015: Nikkei

  • -3

    sangetsu03

    sangetsu it isn't over yet, and is in fact along way off from being over, there is still time and a few measures that can be implemented, you are assuming things stay the same, how about they allow immigration that they are already talking of, how about they give business some help and relief, how about they give lower income households some respite, these things are just some examples and simple to implement, and they have already been discussed by those in charge.

    It is over, it has been over since the collapse of the bubble economy. The seeds of the current failure were planted back during the occupation when Washington forced MacArthur into allowing the zaibatsu to regain control of Japan's industries and government. Japan grew strongly in the days when it's labor costs were nil, and there were no other low-cost producers to compete with.

    Abe and his administration can "talk" and "discuss" until the cows come home, but don't count on them to actually act.

    There is no "third arrow", after two years we should have seen it, or at least know what it was. Earlier this year when Japan refused to budge on "sensitive" industries in the TPP negotiations, a friend of mine in the Japan Development Bank told me quite frankly that "Abenomics is over." Trade reform was to be a cornerstone of Abenomics, and if trade reform cannot be accomplished, then it's very unlikely that anything else can.

    Posted in: Abe can’t pump his chest to say he won the will of Japanese people. He must realize it’s imperative to bring some benefits to the Japanese people.

  • -3

    sangetsu03

    What was the exchange rate in 2007 - 2008 do you recall? About 120 wasn't it? So please tell me how much has anyone lost ? Very little if anything

    You are mistaken. Since 2008 other developed countries have embarked on their own easy-money policies, and these have changed the relative values. To calculate the currency’s relative strength, the central bank compares the yen exchange rate against 59 of its trading partners, weighting each currency according to the value of trade.

    At the moment, the yen's relative value to the dollar is at more than a 30 year low, not a 6 year low. This is why we have seen a surge in bankruptcies this year among exchange rate sensitive companies.

    Posted in: Abe can’t pump his chest to say he won the will of Japanese people. He must realize it’s imperative to bring some benefits to the Japanese people.

  • -3

    sangetsu03

    I have been hearing Japan is doomed and economically it will collapse for over the past 20 years, so far it has not and is still miles away from that,

    Let's see, the falling population is falling, and falling quickly. At the current rate, there will be one-third less Japanese by the middle of the century. That means one-third less consumers, and one-third less GDP, and those who are living at that time will be mostly the elderly, who are drawing pensions, and not contributing to the economy. The population decline is a disaster in itself.

    Next is the fact that the BOJ is now the biggest purchaser of JGB's. This means that the outside investors see JGB's as too risky, and now to keep bond rates low enough to make the national debt servicable, the BOJ must by them. This purchase of assets is becoming the main means of Japan's paying it's debt. This year about $500 billion will be raised in tax revenue, but the BOJ plans to purchase more than $700 billion of it's own bonds. This is not merely bad, but it is shockingly bad. This asset purchasing is driving down the yen, which drives down peoples pay, and robs people of the value of their savings. If your savings is in yen, how much have you lost over the last three years?

    Lastly, those companies which have money are not spending it? Why? Not because they are greedy bastards, they want more than anything to reinvest their profits, but they are holding onto their money because they don't believe they can earn a return on it.

    Japan *has been collapsing for the last 20 years", and is continuing to do so.

    Posted in: Abe can’t pump his chest to say he won the will of Japanese people. He must realize it’s imperative to bring some benefits to the Japanese people.

  • -3

    sangetsu03

    On Tuesday, lawyers filed two class action lawsuits against Sony Pictures in Los Angeles.

    Perhaps the lawyers were behind the hacking?

    I would have been interested in watching the movie, but after hearing that scenes were edited, and theatres have backed out of showing it, I won't bother. Sony has been, and continues to be a disappointment.

    Posted in: Sony cancels Dec 25 U.S. release of 'The Interview' after threats

  • 0

    sangetsu03

    Panasonic's long term debt have decreased substantially from 2010 to 2014. One just needs to look at the statement of cash flow to figure out how those operating losses were covered and in Panasonic case, they do have the 'cash' for increased wage proposal.

    Tell me, is Panasonic still in debt? Yes, or No?

    Tell me, how many jobs did Panasonic eliminate in order to balance it's books, nearly 40,000, wasn't it? Tell me, if Panasonic had to reduce headcount (and the resulting payroll) in to help return to profitability, why would they raise wages?

    Posted in: Abe urges business leaders to increase wages

  • 0

    sangetsu03

    sangetsu03 is commenting his imagination again without reading Japanese papers. The companies are hoarding it.

    Tell me Tina, what business or economic experience do you have?

    I don't need the newspapers to tell me about business or finance. I live and work in the middle of it, my office is surrounded by banks, the BOJ itself is across the street, I can see it from my window. I do business with these people, I have lunch with them. Why should I read a newspaper when I can talk to the people themselves?

    Ask yourself this simple and fundamental question. If companies are hoarding cash, why are they doing so? For anyone who knows anything about business, the first rule is that cash which is not being used might as well not exist.

    Take a trip back in time to 2008 and the financial crisis. Many companies were not prepared for the collapse, and did not have the cash to get through it, so they went bankrupt, and their employees lost their jobs. We had plenty of blame assigned to these companies for not managing themselves better, and not protecting their employees. Companies learned a lesson, and that was that they had better have enough cash to get through tough times.

    Next, how much money did Japanese companies lose from 2008 to 2013? Panasonic lost about $25 billion over that five year period. This year they will earn about $1.5 billion in profit. How much cash do you think Panasonic is hoarding? 70% of Japanese companies will report a loss for 2014, how much cash are they hoarding? The simple fact is that most Jaoanese companies are in debt, they are not hoarding cash.

    Companies now have strong market capitilization from the stock market boom, but few have seen any profit from growth or sales. The stock boom is being fueled by Abe's easy money policies. Since interest is nearly zero, banks and companies can borrow money from the central bank to buy stocks, which pushes up stock prices. We have seen only about 1% of GDP growth since Abe came to office, but we have seen 70% growth in the stock market. If sales and growth are barely growing, then why are stocks moving so high? Because companies are trying to borrow their way to prosperity, like the government has been trying to do for decades. Companies will have as little success at the practice as the government has had.

    Really? not the shareholders? I think you misunderstand the founding principles of capitalism - greed and profit.

    Who are the shareholders? Maybe you are. You may not own stock in any of these companies, but if you have an insurance policy, or have an open loan with a bank for a credit card, car, or mortgage, then you are very likely a shareholder in many companies. And the profits made by these companies are passed on to their shareholders, and partially fund your insurance policy, or are one of the assets your bank counts on to allow them to lend you, or those whom you do business with, money.

    The great problem we have in politics is the nearly blind ignorance people have of economic matters, and how even small things like a 2.5% tax cut or increase indirectly affects can affect their own lives.

    About 70% of corporate tax is compensated for by reducing labor costs, the remaining 30% is passed on to consumers.

    In normal times, a company's profit is always used to fund growth, because growth is the basic foundation of capitalism. Money which is simply spent is money which is lost. Money which is invested in growth provides a return. Growth requires producing and hiring more, which provides people with jobs and money, which they use to buy more goods, whch creates profits, which are reinvested in more growth. When profits decrease, do to taxation, natural conditions, or other causes, there is less to invest or pay their staff or stockholders (which you yourself may unkowingly may be).

    Posted in: Gov't considering 2.5% corporate tax cut from fiscal 2015: Nikkei

  • -3

    sangetsu03

    But one thing I want to point out is that over 80% of Japanese debt (BOJ bonds and such) are bought up by Japanese financial institutions through general savings of its people. One person's debt is another's asset. Unlike Greece, the future Japanese generations are largely the recipients of the payment in addition to being the source of govt tax revenue. This makes things more complicated in a good sense.

    The Japanese financial institutions are trying to shed themselves of their bond holdings. The largest buyer of JGB's is now the central bank itself. The value of the yen is decreasing at a much higher rate than the bonds are paying. How much of a payment can future generations expect to receive?

    The number of JGB's is nearing the total amount of cash deposits held by these banks. If the government cannot redeem the bonds except by printing more money (which is what it is starting to do) then the value of the money is pushed down, reducing the value of the people's savings. They may see half or more of their life's saving evaporate away. That is many years of work and sacrifice flushed down the toilet.

    The bad thing about Japan's buying all of it's own debt is that the general market does not determine the bond yield. This has allowed Japan to borrow at dangerously high levels. Had JGB's been sold on the international market, Japan would have had to manage it's debts much more carefully to attract bond buyers, and we would not be burdened with the outrageous level of debt we now have.

    This is not to say the debt issue is not a problem, but unlike Greece Japan currently has many more levers it can pull before things turn really sour. (Like selling off foreign assets such as US govt bonds) The majority of Japanese people won't take flight on Japanese bonds like how members of the EU did on Greece, because that would be suicide.

    The Japanese people cannot take flight of JGB's because few Japanese personally own any. The banks and their amakudari executives who used to work in the government hold the purse strings on their bond holdings. In a sense, they are already running away, as they are trimming their bond holdings, and buying fewer new bonds, which is one of the main reasons the central banks is buying bonds itself. Japan will not sell of it's foreign assets unless absolutely necessary because Japan is not self sufficient in energy, food, raw materials, or anything else. A sell off at this point or a future point would probably not save a collapsing yen, so these foreign holdings would be necessary to purchase the things Japan needs.

    Posted in: Abe can’t pump his chest to say he won the will of Japanese people. He must realize it’s imperative to bring some benefits to the Japanese people.

  • 1

    sangetsu03

    So let me get this right : the government here can legislate to increase consumption, income and other taxes - and even to REDUCE the corporate tax rates - yet can NOT legislate to link mandatory wage rises to the cost of living ? Perverted - and Mr and Ms Watanabe are going to be continue to be screwed over.

    You are right, the government cannot link wages to the cost of living. I think North Korea and Cuba are the only places that do that now, since China, Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Soviet Union abandoned the practice. Take a look at how the government is managing your tax dollars. How well do you think you would do if they were regulating your pay as well?

    The problems we have now are the unintended consequences of state intervention in nearly all parts of our economy. Mr Abe seems to think that Japan should be greater than it is, and it would be if the government would get out of the way and let the people become great. Abe and his predecessors have hurt far more than they have helped. The government is the wagon, the people are the horse, the horse is supposed to pull the wagon, not the other way around. The wagon has gotten in front of the horse, and now neither can move.

    Posted in: Abe urges business leaders to increase wages

  • -2

    sangetsu03

    Wait, what???? lifted out of slumps? the policies of both are STILL echoing hard times to this day in both respective countries.

    You obviously weren't around during the Reagan/Thatcher years. I guess you don't recall the double-digit unemployment and double-digit inflation of the 70's, or the sense of malaise people felt at the time. The long unemployment lines, and when welfare spending in America was greater than national defense spending. You probably don't remembrer businesses putting "We are not hiring!" signs on their gates. And if you didn't experience the 70's, then you couldn't notice how much better the 80's were, and the optimism which grew at that time.

    And you probably aren't aware of how serious the cold war was, and the very real threat of nuclear war that existed for decades up until the 80's, or that it was Thatcher and Reagan who defeated the Soviet Union without firing a shot. Have you even the slightest clue how momentous that victory was? Did you ever have to perform a war drill? Did you have to learn the location of the nearest fallout shelter? Did you know that your parents would have only 18 minutes to evacuate before warheads began detonating over their cities?

    Reagan or Thatcher were worth 100 Abe's each. Both got their way regardless of the obstacles. Reagan's party never held a majority in either house of congress during his 8 years in office, but he managed to get his policies implemented.

    If you think the world today is worse off after Reagan or Thatcher, ask the Russians what they think.

    Posted in: Abe emerging as a rare strong leader in Japan

  • 7

    sangetsu03

    "Strong" is not synonymous with "good". History is full of strong leaders who led their countries into disaster. Perhaps it would be better to describe Abe as "less weak" than his peers. A strong leader would not have had to call a surprise election to consolidate power.

    I had high hopes for Abe two years ago, he seemed to be the type of person who could get things done. But now I can't help but be disappointed. Having a background in economics, I find almost everything Abe has done to be backwards and self-defeating. And the proof is in the pudding, so to speak. What have we to show after two years of Abenomics? Vastly increased debt, JGB's which can no longer be sold on the open market, a stock market bubble inflated by cheap credit and easy money, and now recession?

    I'll take a good leader over a strong leader any day.

    Posted in: Abe emerging as a rare strong leader in Japan

  • 1

    sangetsu03

    Really? not the shareholders? I think you misunderstand the founding principles of capitalism - greed and profit.

    I would much rather live in a capitalist society than the alternative. If I am greedy, they I can work to satisfy my greed. To make money I have to produce goods or services people want. To produce these goods or services, I need to buy materials, hire staff, and hire the services of other companies for transport, insurance, distribution, etc. My greed helps provide jobs and income to other people. The greedier I am, the more I have to make, the more I have to make, the more people I need to help. Right?

    Posted in: Gov't considering 2.5% corporate tax cut from fiscal 2015: Nikkei

  • 3

    sangetsu03

    Where is my tax-cut? Would like to have my income increase by those 2.5%.

    Who do you think pays corporate tax? Companies? Of course not. Corporate tax is passed by companies onto their staff and customers, including you. If the current tax is 35%, that 35% is compensated for by hiring fewer staff, or increasing the prices of goods you have to pay.

    Understand?

    Posted in: Gov't considering 2.5% corporate tax cut from fiscal 2015: Nikkei

  • 6

    sangetsu03

    Panasonic is expected to make $1.6 billion profit for 2014, but they lost $10 billion in 2013, $7.5 billion in 2012, $3 billion in 2011, a $1 billion loss in 2010, $4.2 billion for 2009, and so on.

    Many companies may have seen profits in 2014, but when you subtract the debt many of these companies have accumulated over the last decade, it is obvious that will need several years of strong profits just to break even. You can't pay for increased wages with money you don't have.

    If Abe wants to raise people's income, perhaps he can start by reducing their taxes?

    Posted in: Abe urges business leaders to increase wages

  • 0

    sangetsu03

    How about Matsuko Deluxe?

    Posted in: If The Avengers could have one Japanese superhero, who would it be?

  • -2

    sangetsu03

    What? 11 of the hottest years ever recorded have been in this century. 2014 is heading to be the hottest year ever recorded - NASA and NOAA

    Have you read the report? It predicts an increase over 2008 by 1/100th of a degree, with a 1/10th degree margin of error. Ludicrous. And while NASA and NOAA (which get much of that $22.5 billion) are predicting the "hottest" year, the IPCC is still publicly trying to explain the "current hiatus in warming". Which of these contradictory reports are right?

    Temperature readings are irrelevant as it is not possible to establish a baseline because the number of thermometers is changed every year. There are now about 2/3 less thermometers than there were 50 years ago, so how can we compare temperatures between then and now when the methods of measuring are different?

    Posted in: As Japan burns more coal, climate policies under pressure

  • -3

    sangetsu03

    The only constant thing about the world's climate is that it constantly changes. For not one moment in the past hundreds of millions of years has the climate not changed, so exactly how does one fight climate change?

    Anyone else here bothered to read any of the UN's climate reports? Anyone? For those of you who believe in climate change, have you gone to the trouble to read the gospel? Or do you simply listen to the priests? Each and every IPCC report has used computer models to predict future climate change. There are 36 models, can guess how many have correctly predicted the last 25 years of global temperature? Not a single one. None were even remotely close.

    The US government has funded climate change research to the tune of $165 billion, spending $22.5 billion last year alone. How much was spent to debunk climate change by industry groups? If you do the math, you come up with about $90 million per year. If you are a scientist, and you need funding (as most scientists do), all you need to do to get a fat grant is somehow relate your research to climate change. If you do a search on any particular science, and cross-reference that science with climate change, you would be surprised at how many scientists have tied their research to climate.

    How accurate is government-funded climate science? As accurate as their economic science? Economists and scientists are paid to produce the results their patrons want. Think about the $22.5 billion now spent annually in the US on climate change, then add what is spent by Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan. How much money is it? How many bureaucrats, researchers, and scientists owe their very livelyhoods to climate change?

    And yes Virginia, there has been no global warming whatsoever for almost 20 years. Even the IPCC admits such publicly. Last year saw the coldest temperature ever recorded by man on the face of the earth. The northwest passage is again frozen over, the great lakes developed ice a full month before normal, beating last year's all-time record. Cold weather records have outpaced hot weather records for the past three years. According to the science printed in black and white in the IPCC reports, none of this was supposed to happen. Read the science yourself, don't let your government or newspaper spoon feed "facts" to you.

    Posted in: As Japan burns more coal, climate policies under pressure

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