Monday May 28, 2012

texasjohn's past comments

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    texasjohn

    It is regrettable so much of the world sees the US-China issue as some sort of football match, with no qualitative difference between the teams or the potential resulting outcome. The US and its allies along the Pacific Rim (S Korea, Japan, Taiwan) have free speech, prosperity and democracy in common - and would not likely give them up. The Europeans think the US will behave "prudently" towards China and the US President should revise its policy and cede influence (and Taiwan?), given "inevitable" rising Chinese power. US policy is already stated, however, for all to see, in the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. Only an act of Congress will change that - the US will continue to support Taiwan as stated in the act for the foreseeable future. That law could not remain in force were it not for an underlying great sympathy and support among the American people who perceive Taiwan as a democracy, a trading partner, and at its core, a friend of the US for many years. Not so the same with the PRC - Americans are growing more and more suspicious of its motives and actions, from Tibet to lead-laced export foodstuffs. Further, the American people love an underdog - does China or the EU understand this? Alarmingly, no. Will the US really ignore conventional wisdom & support a friendly island in danger? Think England, 1940. Will the US go to the nuclear brink over a small, strategically placed island? Think Cuban Missile Crisis, October 1962. We all know what the PRC wants. Perhaps the experts should more consider the question of what the US will do. Here is the real reason China hasn't made its move yet on Taiwan - if China tries to invade but is militarily rebuffed - even for a few days - long enough that the US and Japanese fleets show up with US aircover - the tide militarily and diplomatically, turns against China, she loses face with her own people, and the Chinese government might fall. It is a chance they are not yet willing to take.

    Posted in: China to impose sanctions on U.S. firms selling arms to Taiwan

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