Toyota to invest in UK plant despite Brexit uncertainty

Oh dear, this Brexit thing is really is bad, scary much....

Oh dear, this Brexit thing is really is bad, scary much hold your horses, wait to see what duty the EU will impose on UK goods exported to the EU. EU imports far more UK goods than the UK imports from the EU so they certainly have the negotiating advantage in this case. Then you've got the Scotland factor and whether they will stay within the UK since they clearly voted against the Brexit. If the UK can navigate these minefields unscathed then certainly there was nothing to fear. But sadly I think the odds are stacked against a soft Brexit

EU imports far more UK goods than the UK imports from the EU

Is that right? I read that in 2015, UK exports to the rest of the EU were £220 billion, while imports from the rest of the EU came to £290 billion.

Article 50 talks could well unravel quickly.

Toyota like many companies are taking the risk that sterling will remain competitively low. I have to say that a company that produces products and services in Japan and UK, UK exports will have a marked competitive advantage due to sterling's value. Investment will see a good return to productivity.

But there are inherent risks and uncertainty. Article 50 is without doubt a disastrously vaguely worded afterthought, without any clear procedural structure.

Statistical bulletin:UK trade: Jan 2017....The trade deficit with EU is widening ....scroll down section 3 table 1 The month on month figure, best remain seated. If UK were hit Germany with like for like tariffs, Germany would be in danger of falling into a prolonged recession.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/jan2017

Is that right? I read that in 2015, UK exports to the rest of the EU were £220 billion, while imports from the rest of the EU came to £290 billion. I meant to say on a percentage basis, majority of UK exports go to the EU, while the majority of EU exports dont go to the UK. Meaning any tariffs UK impose on EU goods will have lesser effect than vice-versa. So as I said EU would be crazy to let the UK continue to have free market access while refusing to allow the free movement of people, most other EU members would find this totally unfair to themselves being in the EU, why would they want to stay. No the EU is best to keep some tariffs in place , over the long term UK manufacturers will have no choice but to relocate to with the EU free market zone, taking UK jobs in the process. it takes all EU member states to agree on any future FTA with the UK, so a hard Brexit is more likely than the soft version the UK is praying for.

Until Article 50, which is a letter of notifications is invoked/dispatched, even the wording of the communique is open to interpretation, it is difficult to the see the wood from the trees

Access to the single market, is conditional to compliance of the four principals you quite rightly point out. wtfjapan.

Let sit and hope for all parties sake, that common sense prevails. There are factors, economic and well as political outside of Brexit that could show the whole process under a different light. Positive rather than negative, and might lead to a more flexible form of EU membership.

Positive rather than negative, and might lead to a more flexible form of EU membership we can only hope, but the EU will make being in the EU more advantageous than not, and rightly so. Many member states have already stated that they won't allow cherry picking by the UK and changing the EU rules to suit a Brexit would be unacceptable to many of the EU members. Im still guessing the Brexit will be harder than many seem to think. Will see if UK sovereignty is worth it in the years to come , and whether Scotland will stay or join the EU.