Nuclear radiation from Fukushima twice more than estimated: report

Why am I not surprised at this headline. Please for the sake of future generations get rid of nuclear power as quickly as possible, bring in eco alternatives. Give my grandchildren and everyone elses children a clean nuclear free future.

reaching 40% of the total from Chernobyl, a preliminary report says.

and final report will say it exceeded Chernobyl. Headline like this gives me a minor jolt everyday.

Twice in this case means 200% more radiation than previously reported. It's frightening.

Such bold faced liars, trying to work out what is the minimum they can admit about the seriousness of the situation at any given point. They downplay it and bully the media and foreign governments into also downplaying Fukushima, lie about the levels released and the state of the reactors throughout the whole disaster, then want to say there will be no "significant" health risks. Im pretty sure the health risks will be pretty significant to the families that will lose people or suffer from cancers and birth defects caused by the Fukushima meltdowns. What little respect I had left for Japan has been destroyed over the past 7 months.

The Fukushima nuclear disaster released twice as much of a dangerous radioactive substance into the atmosphere as Japanese authorities estimated

The key word here is "estimated" and should be amended to "knew".

As most of us here predicted, the J-gov will let the truth out slow and methodically.

Congratulations Japan! You've not only messed up your own country but you've polluted the oceans as well!

Surely, surely, this must be getting embarrassing for the Japanese by now? What bonehead decided to announce emissions based only on what was on land? Did they really think the rest of the world would blindly accept their word and not measure for themselves? Yes, actually, of course they did, because that is what they are used to - blind acceptance without question....except....oh....the rest of the world arent Japanese. How "regrettable".

Didnt they also initially announce it was only 7000 terabecquerels? I seem to remember they revised it upwards later.

Twice the amount of cesium may not be a big difference for Mr Stohl at his desk in Norway, but it makes a big difference to those of us living here in the middle of it.

hoserfella

As most of us here predicted, the J-gov will let the truth out slow and methodically.

I think you give them too much credit. They have little idea what they themselves are doing, let alone any clear picture of the nuclear fiasco.

This study comes to it's conclusions by running dispersion models 'backward' from measured values of Xenon and Cesium gathered from multiple stations all over the world. This bigger set of input data allows them to model more clearly what has happened. This report is not done by Jgov so it is not a case of them letting the truth out slowly. (Not that I am arguing with you on that point anyway goinggoing)

Basically because most of the radiation was blown out to sea it was unavailable to Japanese measuring stations, and thus not included as input parameters to Japanese models. I think one of the scariest things about the report is that it challenges the timeline of the accident, basically stating that major amounts of radiation was released from very early after the earthquake as opposed to after the hydrogen explosions as stated by the Japanese authorities.

The only reassuring thing I can say about this, is that the report (as far as I understand) does not directly challenge the published doses received by the Japanese Population.

The article above only links to the abstract.

Here is link to the full report (not a light read )

http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/28319/2011/acpd-11-28319-2011.pdf

Here is an article about it going into some details ( a bit easier digested)

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/251011/full/478435a.html

Whoop there it is!!!

The lies exposed. Double what was reported by Japan's government and TEPCO Double. Sensors from all over the world.

Nicky - Unfortunately, it comes down to this. It was a catastrophic nuclear accident that should have provoked a mass exodus of this area. PRIDE would not allow Japan to fall to the level of it's neighbors that they look down upon. Industries, government, and their way of life would've been destroyed. As you know already suicide is popular here. This is the largest group suicide in world history in order to save this nation for the coming generations. They weren't ready for this kind of accident.

NickyFutz - it gets worse. You said they contaminated the oceans, plus they went one step further - They didn't do anything about it. In fact, sending out their research whaling vessels to catch whales instead of going to catch all the debris that is drifting to the United States. Furthermore they haven't even offered any money to pay salvage crews to clean up their mess.

Sourpuss - Hoserfella is spot on. I feel sorry for the Japanese, I really do. They are like one-trick ponies. Olympus said they paid out a certain amount of money (lying of course) the next day it was DOUBLE just like this radiation.

Lies, Lies, Lies.

I knew I should have never come back to this "Country" after the disaster.

Ah yes! Lies, lies and more BS with lies for the sheeple of these islands, including all of us who still are here, working, trying to live our lives, Tepco, please burn in hell!! Wait, Tepco burn and burn in hell for all of eternity!!

Is anyone surprised by this? We all knew full well, save those in denial, that more and more reports would come to light stating that things were much worse than the Japanese government reported when trying to play things down, and over the years more and more will come to light. Eventually the nuclear disaster will be deemed worse than Chernobyl, and finally the government will admit years down the road that 'maybe it did pose a health risk... oops!'

" Many parents of small children in Tokyo worry about the discovery of radiation hotspots even though government officials say they don’t pose a health risk."

Yeah, when the legal dose is 1 microsillivert (however it's spelled) or whatever per year and the hotspots release that per hour -- how could it possibly pose a health risk? (rolls eyes).

Twice in this case means 200% more radiation than previously reported. It's frightening.

Not really.

In a telephone interview, Stohl said emission estimates are so imprecise that finding twice the amount of cesium isn’t considered a major difference. He said some previous estimates had been higher than his.

Not suprised in the slightest, and they have only said anyhting because others know. If no one else knew do you think the Jgovt would be admitting anyhting?

You can probably expect another announcement some time down the track stating that the real actual amount exceeded chernobyl and they still havent and will not be able to get the reactors under control.

They will also declare that tepco is the most honest relaible & efficient corporation in Japan...................................

they lied to the people, really? incomprehensible

Twice in this case means 200% more radiation than previously reported. It's frightening.

No, 'twice' means 100% more....

Getting closer... the first reports were 10%... now it's 40... if it is anything like Olympus it will be double this again.

Nuclear radiation from Fukushima plant twice more than estimated

Isn't this exactly what everyone (except the JGovt and TEPCO) was saying at the time back in March/April? Sadly this will get swept under the carpet within a week even if it was proven to have been four or five times more than estimated.

they lied to the people, really? incomprehensible

No. In this case they didn't lie. Read the article:

Study author Andreas Stohl of the Norwegian Institute for Air Research says the Japanese government estimate came only from data in Japan, and that would have missed emissions blown out to sea.

The sad thing is, Japanese leaders will be more worried about the international embarassment at these findings, and "losing face", than any danger to children. I think it is now highly probable Fukushima will in future be viewed as worse than Chernobyl - not by Japanese leaders, but all of the rest of the world.

This does not sound good for the Japanese authorities. Sooner or later they will have to take full responsibility for the disaster.

PLEASE READ WHAT SQUIDBERT POSTED! and quit posting that the j-gov't was lyings. as he so eloquently put it, they released info based on the data they had. they didn't have the inclination, time nor the ability to quickly process data from all of the world.

yes, the j-govt was BSing on a lot of stuff but they actually didn't BS about this. sheez, people, give the j-bashing a rest some time and read the article carefully.

The truth may (and I say may because I doubt will get the full truth) slowly be coming out. Nicky, you said it all for me.

Been watching the floods in Thailand and all those Japanese flyjin leaving... Seems the flyjin in Japan may have been right to flee after all.

This study is probably all foreign lies.Again, western countrys trying to bully Japan.

Gee, do ya think.? TEPCO couldn't track a muddy dog across a wood floor...

In a telephone interview, Stohl said emission estimates are so imprecise that finding twice the amount of cesium isn’t considered a major difference. He said some previous estimates had been higher than his.

So based on this - the value of the report in thaarticle has to be questionable? Another excuse for people to vent their fear?

It's just different estimate from different sources. Why are people saying "Lies!"? 5 years from now it will be easy to understand what exactly happened and what are the repercussions but 7 months after the disaster there's still a lot of science to be done.

Understanding something this complex is not instantaneous, it takes a lot of research and analysis by a whole lot of people.

OK, so all of you think if we knew the exact scale in the first days something would be different?

What do you suggest? Everyone panic and jump in the sea? Which later we learn was more polluted than the land!

Or just like many from the 20km zone went northwest and got stuck in traffic when the explosion occurred. They were exactly in the most affected area as the wind blew in that direction.

We all don't know what would have been best in those first hours and days. I don't defend the government but nobody was ready for such a chain reaction.

What is worse I think is that after everyone already knew the approximate scale the progress in mapping the dangerous zones, to give directions to farmers and protect consumers is very limited. Those measures should have started in May and not in October as we continue to be unclear what we receive and where there are hotspots.

Pawatan: actually it is incomprehesible as to why more science is needed. Do you believe that this nuclear accident is completely unique just because it happened in Japan, like J-gov? Or that the established science of measuring, estimation and modelling is unreliable alchemy just because you're not (again just like J-gov) familiar with it?

Thinking that things are automatically different just because it happens in Japan and to Japanese, is racial discrimination. And that was a Japanese who told me that. The world has a huge database on nuclear disasters, and the J-gov is failing to learn from it.

SquidBert made a very good point. All the information about the release are calculated from statistical dispersion models. In these models, You more often than not happy when You find the right number of digits. They take measurements at various radiation detectors as input and the motion of the atmosphere and trace it back to what kind of source could have generated this signal. For all those that complain about a factor of two: learn about basic science .

The reason for this discrepancy is the lack of international data sources in the Japanese study. The precision and reliability of a simulation typically increases like the square root of the number of actually measured data points (in many cases). Japan restricted itself to a small set of measurements on Japanese land, since Japan only thinks about Japan. We all know that Japan is not apt in international collaboration. There is no surprise in this news.

NO surprise here. I reiterate the sentiments. The fact that people are even living in the area (50km - 80km zone) or working with full knowledge that they'll be at risk to develop cancer in the future is mind-boggling. Regardless of what Japan didn't do with their previous study the real crime is allowing schools to stay open in that area. These people should be relocated - forcibly if necessary - to protect them from contamination. 2nd, the food from that area is a definite no sell. Do not allow any of it out of there. Sorry, but the water table and soil are contaminated and it's time to move on. I'd gladly sell some land to one of these families or take in some kids to aid in the relocation and safety of the people. Time to stop the lemming mentality and save these people.

A chest x-ray would be about 0.1 millisieverts or 10 microsieverts. A CT brain scan would be about 2.0 millisieverts or 200 microsieverts.

You might want to check your maths- you have some zeroes missing there.

Because ocean is mentioned I don't think many know that Japanese scientist also work on finding out the extend of the pollution. Here is a link in English of special site of Oceanographic Society of Japan: http://www.kaiyo-gakkai.jp/sinsai_eng/ The information is still limited though and despite they give the data to the government and fisheries agency it is up to them how to use it.

bentheredonethat and Johannes Weber, thank you for the vote of confidence.

All that being said, I still think lying comes as second nature to most governments and large corporations and double that for J-gov and TEPCO. So even if this report does not prove or indicate that the government was lying in this case. It does not mean that I trust them, and I don't recommend any one else to either.

As always it is best to gather your information from multiple sources, consider the credibility and motivations behind those sources and then make your own view from there.

And a moderate amount of 'Tinfoil-hattery' may be use full at times, as it helps us to question what we think to be true. And especially for the Japanese People, I wish that they would start doing that en mass.

I think it is now highly probable Fukushima will in future be viewed as worse than Chernobyl - not by Japanese leaders, but all of the rest of the world.

Not until someone produces a map like this one showing how Fukushima affected the rest of the world.

http://09101725.up.269g.net/image/Radioactive_fallout_caesium137_after_Chernobyl-thumbnail2.jpg

It's pointless trying to explain, again, why this isn't as bad as Chernobyl. It's bad for Fukushima. It's bad for parts of Japan. All produce should be tested. All children should be tested for thyroid cancer. Regularly.

But this isn't Chernobyl. Not even close.

Hmm that link didn't work but google images 'chernobyl radiation map' and you will see how much of Western Europe was affected by Chernobyl. The majority of people on here are worried about food from Fukushima, yet in Europe they're worried about Lamb from Wales or the Lake District.

Acjama

Pawatan: actually it is incomprehesible as to why more science is needed. Do you believe that this nuclear accident is completely unique just because it happened in Japan, like J-gov?

When did I say that? That's nonsense, and it's very strange that you would even suggest that I am saying that. What agenda do you have?

Or that the established science of measuring, estimation and modelling is unreliable alchemy just because you're not (again just like J-gov) familiar with it?

I am a working scientist who does a lot of modeling in my day-to-day work. It would be extremely inaccurate to say either I am not familiar with it or think it's alchemy. But I know very well how complicated the associated science can be. How about you?

Thinking that things are automatically different just because it happens in Japan and to Japanese, is racial discrimination.

I think you need to look into your heart and figure out why you would bring this up in a conversation that has nothing to do with exceptionalism or racism. It's quite strange.

PLEASE READ WHAT SQUIDBERT POSTED! and quit posting that the j-gov't was lyings. as he so eloquently put it, they released info based on the data they had. they didn't have the inclination, time nor the ability to quickly process data from all of the world.

yes, the j-govt was BSing on a lot of stuff but they actually didn't BS about this. sheez, people, give the j-bashing a rest some time and read the article carefully.

Agreed the j government was not "lying" in the true sense - however I consider concealing important facts to be at the very least "economical with the truth" - for example, the FACT that they didnt include emissions that had gone out to sea in their figures, and yet conveniently DIDNT make that clear, leading everyone to believe that their number WAS the total number. They must have known from the start that they werent including ALL the data - but they let everyone think otherwise. Lying? No, but certainly not being honest with everyone.

I am also curious - why didnt the Japanese have access to the data that the rest of the world did? Somebody said they were a little busy at the time - very true, but THIS is what they should have been busy monitoring!!!

Posted by Kentaro75; Oct. 28, 2011 - 09:48AM JST

This study is probably all foreign lies.Again, western countrys trying to bully Japan.

Posted in: Nuclear radiation from Fukushima twice more than estimated: report

You hate foreigners...we get it...can we move on and at least share views without the "Gaijin Bashing" and "I'm just a poor little sole that is Bullied all the time"...???...

This study is probably all foreign lies.Again, western countrys trying to bully Japan.

yawwwwn

2020hindsights: "No. In this case they didn't lie. Read the article:"

Ever heard of a 'lie of omission'? They deliberately reported ONLY the radiation that affected/fell on Japan, and said matter of factly that the radiation released was of a certain level. That can easily be taken as a lie.

zichi: Thanks for the facts on how much radiation is allowed. As for your comments on TEPCO and what not, I agree, and think it's ridiculous that they can alter acceptable levels and be lax on testing to benefit the company (and won't allow outside inspectors, etc.), but this is rampant throughout Japan and other nations -- be it the JSA forming their own investigative panel to look into wrong doing, Olympus forming IT'S own investigative panel, or TEPCO. It's quite clear in such cases they will down-play as much as they can and ignore risks in order to pursue profit and/or avoid more damage than they deem necessary.

They deliberately reported ONLY the radiation that affected/fell on Japan, and said matter of factly that the radiation released was of a certain level. That can easily be taken as a lie.

I would say that it wasn't deliberate but an error in scientific method. So no lie. In any case it wasn't far out (only 100%) and considering the number of assumptions that these estimates make, that isn't a lot.

@smithinjapan

a "lie of omission" would have to assume that the j-govt knew the global data on c-137. even now there isn't concrete data on c-137 as the researches noted.

did the j-public even care about the global data? heck no!! they wanted and only needed info pertaining to their particular area. the people of fukushima, and most of japan, could have cared less about the amount of c-137 blowing over the ocean in the first weeks after 3.11. Which question was more important, "Mom, can I swim in the middle of the pacific ocean?" or "Mom, is it safe to go outside?"

Maybe it's because I'm not there, but why would an ESTIMATE that was wrong equate to an outright lie - either of commission OR omission? It was an ESTIMATE. Look up the word, folks. I'm now going to ESTIMATE that I'll get 10 thumbs up for this comment. If I get only 9, does that mean I've lied? NO.

man, you guys are so quick to blow everything out of proportion. All this is saying is the TOTAL released COULD be almost twice as much as reported by Japanese who were reporting the radiation levels INSIDE Japan. What is so hard to understand about this? You guys are going on and on about everyone lying, conspiracy theories, etc, nothing has really changed, this is just pointing out that there was OTHER radiation levels outside of Japan over the Pacific that was not measured. Is does not say that levels WITHIN Japan were higher. CALM DOWN, if you hate all this so much, WHY ARE YOU STILL HERE IN JAPAN!?!?!?! GO AWAY!

Maybe it's because I'm not there, but why would an ESTIMATE that was wrong equate to an outright lie - either of commission OR omission? It was an ESTIMATE.

Exactly. And not only was the original report an estimate, the NEW report by a totally different entity is also an estimate.

But I think some are expecting all agencies to be able to know everything instantly with exacting precision.

Fadamor, you need to understand the Japanese culture, particularly among old government workers. You only tell what you need to tell, and you only tell that after you've been caught not telling what you should have told... Repeat this cycle ad nauseam...

Twice more than!?!?

@zichi:

They have to compute the source by backtracking form detected amounts at measuring stations. They have all the weather data at hand, but it is a chaotic system. It is actually a very hard job (doing these "estimates"). Most of us wouldn't be capable of getting this done.

Remember the issue with SPEEDI data? The JGov and TEPCO claimed it was useless because they didn't know the source term. Scientists claimed that they could have used a unit source to see the local distribution without the knowledge of the absolute magnitude. They are now backtracking the SPEEDI calculations from the distribution to the source instead of using the source to calculate the distribution.

TEPCO and JGov downplay as much as they can, but they don't show wrong figures (against their better knowledge) as far as I know. They are intransparent to the extreme, but they do not falsify scientific data.

Time to queue up the improper usage of "regrettable" for the incoming gov't apologies

I think Mr. Burns has a good grasp of how it is working.

.. you need to understand the Japanese culture, particularly among old government workers. You only tell what you need to tell, and you only tell that after you've been caught not telling what you should have told... Repeat this cycle ad nauseam...

Only I would add;

Lie if it benefits you and you expect that you can either get away with it or explain it away as "regrettable" mistake in case you are busted.

Well it is nice to see that some of our Japanese amigos think that Japan is just fine and that the situation in Fukushima etc..is just some kind of FOREIGN idea?? TELL that to the poor people who can not go back to their homes, farms in and around the Dai Ichi Nuclear power plant, see what the locals, MOSTLY JAPANESE, who as far as I can tell, are very ANGRY with Mr.Noda, with Tepco and some have even committed SUICIDE. So this radiation scare and Japanese never ever able to go back to their home towns, well maybe after 1,600 years?? Or was it 16,000 years?? So, sorry, I am not Japanese but I do know many Japanese are suffering, confused and really pissed off not with FOREIGNERS but with their own shitty Japanese government and with Tokyo Electric. IMHO.

I don't think it was lies. Not this soon after the event. Even now they are not 100% on what Chernobyl released. It's a reassessment off very complex data and world wide readings. It is not a surprise, it is not comforting either.

Every day it seems, even 7 months after the disaster, disclosures like this keep occurring. Why I am so glad I got out when I did so this kind of stuff deosn't cause me constant stress and worry anymore.

Thanks guys, at least I guess somebody is actually reading my comments?? So hmmm...what do you all not agree with me. No radiation in Fukushima?? It is all an American made up idea?? Maybe let me guess the CIA triggered the earthquakes in Tohoku along with those in Haiti last year?? The Tohoku Japanese victims are not pissed off, meaning ANGRY and sick and tired of the cover up, lies etc..by Tokyo Electric and the Japanese government?? Just a few questions to try to help the Japanese here who are still in denial, who do not want to admit that this time, it is not China's fault, not Russia, but their own country that really messed up big time, meaning, Japan.

@TokyoTanuki: AFAIK, in percentages "once" is equal to "one time more", which is 100% (1+100%= 2). "Twice" means "two times more", which is 200% (1+200%=3). My math may be wrong, I stand to be corrected if this is the case.

AFAIK, in percentages "once" is equal to "one time more", which is 100% (1+100%= 2). "Twice" means "two times more", which is 200% (1+200%=3).

Nah, twice is 100% more.