Abenocolypse: the perceived fall of Japan

I dont like changes neither, thats why I admired Japan: "tecnology+tradition"

Was there not an increase in capital expenditure before the tax hike?

If demand is slack, and it is, an increase in capital expenditure is detrimental. You just end up with more capacity to produce more things people won't buy.

This is the first time that a foreign person has appeared in an NHK drama.

Just plain false.

I don't care about the xenophobia, it is the inverted population pyramid that is the brick wall Japan is steaming towards, no ifs ands or buts.

The increase in consumption tax and implementation of aggressive “Quantitative Easing” in such close proximity in itself is both remarkable and historic.

Sheesh man, get over yourself. Raising and taxes and printing money is NOT remarkable, and it is certainly NOT historic.

It's what every soon-to-collapse economy has done since the dawn of time.

Right before they go bust.

This is the first time that a foreign person has appeared in an NHK drama. This may seem inconsequential to overseas readers but for the sake of comparison, it’s the equivalent of having a Western TV drama where the lead role is played by a hologram, or a robot, or a unicorn.

Not true. Not even kind of true.

Also, cheers for comparing the foreign community to illusionary non-corporeal wisps, a programmed automaton and a mythical beast.

This is the first time that a foreign person has appeared in an NHK drama.

The writer has to be a "Japanophile".

This may seem inconsequential to overseas readers but for the sake of comparison, it’s the equivalent of having a Western TV drama where the lead role is played by a hologram, or a robot, or a unicorn.

I highly doubt the actress on the series appreciates being equated to a hologram, robot, or mythical character.

However, what you can see now, if you take the time to look through the headlines, is that a lot of monumental changes are being made to the historically change-averse structures that underpin Japan and its economy.

Horse manure. All they have done is a much bigger version of what LDP-led economic policy has been for decades -- massive government spending and manipulating the yen to the benefit of the exporting companies. Putting that strategy on steroids is hardly "monumental". About the only thing that can be classified as monutmental is the level of public debt to GDP.

Politicians are exactly the same everywhere. They just can't keep their hands off other people's money. Abe was doing useful things, mainly getting government out of the way. But as with every other member of the political class, they start raising taxes and fooling around with money and they never learn, economic problems occur because everything politicians Do is a drag on economies and scanning too much money out of the economy, kills it. This is a constant repeat of history in nearly every country going back thousands,of years

Abe was doing useful things, mainly getting government out of the way.

Huh? What planet is the Japan you referring to on? If Abe truly wanted the government out of the way HE should quit.

You talk like Abe was the savior then you come across as if he the devil reincarnated. Really a lovehate relationship with the guy huh.

There is informed opinion and then there is this type of lazy opinion piece. Others have pointed out some of the inaccuracies. Also, the writer just talks around the key issue of demographics. No major capitalist economy, which basically depends on population growth for sustained economic growth, has ever faced a rapid decline in the birthrate. More women in the workforce will likely only exacerbate the problem. As for immigrants, the UN predicts Japan would need to accept about 500,000 per year to offset the decline--a highly improbable scenario. The country is going to have to get used to a lower standard of living and more selective welfare system. Expect a lot of hurt over the next several decades as the class divide increases and the welfare state withers.

The writer, however, is correct that Abenomics has been successful, just not in the way he thinks. It was always intended to shift public money to the elite investing class and to friendly corporations. Unfortunately, a good chunk of the public and this writer drank the Kool-Aid, so instead of policy that faces up to the reality of economic decline, we'll get 4 more years of Abe and his cohorts dipping their hand into our cookie jar.

"It’s the equivalent of having a Western TV drama where the lead role is played by a hologram, or a robot, or a unicorn." Laughed heartily at this, thanks.

Warispeace, good thoughts. I will sadly not be able remain in Japan for the harder times. As Japan finds reasons to raise the tax rate on anyone with a high-ish income (I have a business), I will be moving my business outside of Japan and living elsewhere. (Tax is already at 55% and going higher all the time.)

As I write this, the yen is 120 to the dollar. Part of the Abenomics plan was to depreciate the yen and encourage inflation. The increase in consumption tax and implementation of aggressive “Quantitative Easing” in such close proximity in itself is both remarkable and historic. About $712 billion in Japanese government bonds every year being purchased by the Bank of Japan shows notable conviction, regardless of them still not achieving the 2% inflationary target by 2015. They are closer now than when they started - and this is the definition of progress.

So the amount of assets being "purchased" each is 50% more than the tax revenue annually collected, and this is supposed to be seen as a positive thing? People seeing their labor and savings devalued is "the definition of progress"?

Unarguably, Japan has been a slow mover decades. Perhaps even centuries. However, what you can see now, if you take the time to look through the headlines, is that a lot of monumental changes are being made to the historically change-averse structures that underpin Japan and its economy. On paper we may be amidst a recession, but it is important to remember that it is impossible to accurately gauge somebody’s health by holding the back of your hand to their forehead.

I can gauge Japan's economic health by looking at the declining population. Adam Smith said that the rate of a country's population growth was the best measure of economic success. From this perspective, Japan rates as having one of the worst economies of any nation, devloped or otherwise. Not one single policy implemented by Abe addresses the problem of population decline. In fact, every policy implemented so far has only increased the cost of living of ordinary Japanese, which decreases the amount of money they have to raise children, which further drives down the population. This further drives down growth and tax revenue.

I "don't look at the headlines", because news is not objective. In economic matters, I look at only one line, the bottom line, as that is the only one which matters. It cannot be spun or massaged, it represents the fundamental truth. I see the headlines report that Japanese companies have reported "record profits" this year, which sounds good, but the headlines neglect to mention the previous five years of record losses. If Panasonic makes as much profit every year as it did this year, it will take five years to pay off their losses for just last year, and a further 20 years to pay off their losses of the last decade.

Not true. Not even kind of true. Also, cheers for comparing the foreign community to illusionary non-corporeal wisps, a programmed automaton and a mythical beast.

It's called hyperbole, and was meant to be humorous.

"Abenocolypse"

This is foreboding...

Concerning the morning serial drama, “Massan”, which casts American Charlotte Kate Fox as the heroine ... I have seen almost every program so far. Ms. Fox is doing a remarkable performance considering that she does not speak much Japanese in real life. If you haven't been following "Massan," why not give it a try. The main part of the drama has been completed, but there is much more to go. At this point, you would have to pick it up in the middle. It is a true story about the Japanese man who was the first local to introduce Scottish-made whiskey to Japan back in the 1920s. His wife, played by Ms. Fox (an American), was from Scotland.

As for the main part of the article above, I sort of dig the term "Abenocolypse." It goes well with "Abenomics." Both terms are scary.

The world looks at Japan daily with an intense morbid curiosity to gauge the progress of Abenomics- the remedy to Japan’s deep-seated economic woes.

No it doesn't. The only time I see it on the BBC is when they do a business news piece and may occasionally mention Japan's economic downturn. I don't suppose other western media are that interested either.

it’s the equivalent of having a Western TV drama where the lead role is played by a hologram, or a robot, or a unicorn.

More simply, played by an Asian, uh.

"the term “recession” often wrongfully draws about connotations of a prolonged economic downturn and a struggling populace..."

i've literally never heard anyone say this....a "recession" is two [or more] consecutive quarters of negative gdp...

An island, quietly xenophobic

"quietly"? Bullhorns set to "min"?