Noda, opposition clinch deal on tax bill, early election

Anyone hazard a guess if the tax plan will survive if Noda gets elected out. Who are some potential candidates to replace Noda? Ozawa??

noda is a MOF stooge. he doesn't even care about the people or even his own party, only that the MOF get their tax increase to pay for their salaries/waste.

Prime Minister Yoshihko Noda on Wednesday night clinched an 11th hour compromise with the opposition, saving a hard-fought deal on a contentious sales tax increase in return for a pledge to hold a general election "soon."

Asked, however, whether he had clarified the timing of the election, he said: "We had no such conversation."

The face for radio is getting more popular by the minute.

Fascinating night. Just to be clear what happened and what the outcome was.

DPJ wanted the LDP and Komeito to implement the 3 party agreement to pass the MOF drafted tax increase as soon as possible this week.

LDP leader Tanigaki desperately wants to force an upper house election before the LDP leadership election at the end of September, when, anticipating a probable return to power in the next election, it is likely his position as LDP leader will be contested and he will lose his opportunity to be PM. Koizumi, Aso and Fukuda all pushed that this was a unique opportunity to extort a snap election out of Noda in exchange for signing on to the MOF's tax plan.

LDP's strategy to do this was to force Noda to state an early election date or he would have the LDP withold support for the tax increase, and submit a no confidence motion in the upper house that would be likely to pass and force an election.

What was interesting was that the other 6 opposition parties, including Ozawa kind of screwed the LDP yesterday but submitting a no confidence motion ahead of the DPJ's planned date to submit the tax increase to try and block it - a measure which the LDP would be forced to support under the 3 party agreement. And parliamentary rules would prevent it submitting a further no confidence motion after the first motion fails, so they lose the ability to threaten the DPJ with a no confidence motion. So in a way, the move by Ozawa, People's Party and others actually damaged the LDP's negotiating position.

The LDP, desperate to force an election before Tanigaki's term runs out basically yesterday said it was willing to throw out the MOF tax increase and the 3 party agreement if the DPJ doesn't set a short term snap election date. Komeito slammed the LDP for basically being extortionate and breaking the 3 party promise that they and the DPJ see as being for the good of the country (ie MOF).

Noda basically flubs the promise - "soon" in order to secure LDP support for the upcoming bill, but that really puts the DPJ in jeapordy given their low polling at the moment, and public disapproval of the tax increase.

What is most enteretaining from all this is that although Tanigaki appears to have succeeded at bringing forward the next election date, he basically threw away the LDP's position as protector of the MOF and gave that to the DPJ in the process. Noda was responding like he was campaigning for election with the bureaucracy, which he no doubt won. And Tanigaki, getting a snap election no one wants - the 2chan political boards were slamming him and the LDP like they haven't been slammed since Aso was in power. To the point that this could actually damage the LDP as much or more than the DPJ.

All pointless drama, but what it means is:

Ozawa and friend's no confidence motion against the DPJ will, because the LDP will now support the DPJ and protect it. The tax in crease will pass with the support of LDP, DPJ and Komeito. The DPJ will dissolve the upper house and call a new election "soon" - which the PM won't say when. With the LDP's leverage gone once the tax increase is passed, they might as well take into next year.

In a way, it is almost like Noda and Ozawa double teamed Tanigaki on this. It remains to be seen if Noda will actually call an election immediately after, which will most likely lead to the obliteration of the DPJ.

Hikozaemon, above, writes a very clear overall picture of what is happening in the Diet. Read it slowly and digest what's there ... interesting.

One thing that Hikozaemon included is downright scary. He writes: "Koizumi, Aso and Fukuda all pushed that this was a unique opportunity to extort a snap election out of Noda in exchange for signing on to the MOF's tax plan." Even the mention of those three former prime ministers should make the hair on one's back stand up. Japan went downhill fast under those three guys ... and it should avoid them as much as possible because they are poisonous.

What's this going to do to the yen, I wonder?

While Noda is by no means a capable leader, why on earth does he keep giving into these scumbags? They'll hold off on passing the bill until the election is decided, then when that date's made public the opposition will suddenly decide to put off passing the bill until the election is over, leaving it up to 'the people to decide'. They NEVER live up to their promises, and Noda should know that (not that the DPJ ever lives up to theirs, but still.

anything that keeps the LDP at bay is positive.

looks like ozawa pulled off another effective tactical maneuver.

after the election, maybe they can ameliorate the tax increase by introduce VAT like clauses exempting daily necessities, etc.

Nessie: What's this going to do to the yen, I wonder?

I understand it will cause needed inflation, which based on 2010 numbers was -0.72%/year, ranked 176th in the world.

Inflation should in turn reduce the current exchange rates.

Sounds like Moe, Larry, and Curly twisted Shemp's arm just enough to get what they wanted;passage of the tax increase atrocity, but with them in a stronger position as when the recession hits hard, they can blame Noda for being the biggest stooge, the one to take the blame. In reality, all of those crooks just wanted to jack the tax.

I always find it very difficult to understand certain aspects of Japanese politics. For instance, I cannot understand why Japanese prime ministers do no last long in post, etc. I am very, very grateful to HIKOZAEMON for his/her outstanding summary of what is currently going on in the Japanese parliament at present. For me it was absolutely delightful to read such a well informed and well written piece of journalism. One more thing, it is really shameful to see how Japanese politicians may sometimes vote in parliament against their political views to achieve personal/political gains. Again,HIKOZAEMON, well done. Spot on!

Prime Minister Yoshihko Noda on Wednesday night clinched an 11th hour compromise with the opposition, saving a hard-fought deal on a contentious sales tax increase in return for a pledge to hold a general election “soon.”

So they kill the country for political gain? I think they need to expel all these guys and their families (since many are hereditary positions basically), because they are clearly in it for power and not for the country.

NessieAug. 09, 2012 - 03:59PM JST

What's this going to do to the yen, I wonder?

Doesn't really matter, but it's effects on GDP will be significant. The last two times they increased the tax the economy crashed, and that was when the economy was growing at over 5%. Now with negative growth, we will expect to see very large negative growth.

Doesn't really matter,

It matters to me.