Britain should start EU divorce talks soon, says Tusk

I predict...

Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

I think May is playing for time. She knows that the German and French governments will under immense pressure next year because of their respective elections. The German auto industry has already stated that they can't afford to sour the relationship between the UK and Germany. This article is also quite interesting....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/why-all-the-signs-point-to-work-permit-system-and-hard-brexit-as/

Even if May tried to ignore the Brexit vote she'll have no choice. 17.4 million people won't let it happen.

I predict it will happen. Sooner rather than later.

The next event to watch for is the French election. All of the serious contenders for the French presidency are promising to scrap the Le Touquet agreement and Sangatte protocol. This is what allows the UK border force to screen people in France before being allowed to travel into the UK. Without it, Britain would either have to shut itself off entirely from continental land traffic, ferries and trains (an economic disaster) or prepare to be swamped by countless refugees and migrants. I'm guessing the UK will be keen to come to the negotiating table if this starts to look like a real possibility.

The worst case scenario for the UK would be if the French scrap the treaties after the UK leaves the EU. If there is no refugee information sharing agreement between the EU and UK, every refugee who has already been granted asylum in Germany and Sweden could, in theory, rip up their identity documents and show up at the UK border claiming to be a fresh asylum seeker. Without access to the EU refugee databases, the UK wouldn't be able to verify their identities in order to send them back. I don't think this is the most likely scenario but it is possible if Britain makes a huge mess of Brexit.

May isn't going to ignore the referendum result, but she's going to take her own, slow, time making it happen. Quite right too. This is something that can't be rushed.

All euro democrats (left and right) are scared brexit will gangrene and poison their own country, that's why they want the UK out of the EU asap.

Funnily enough May and the UK pro brexit folks are now seen as heroes by mainland europe's populists. Marine Le Pen and co would love to see May's Britan transitioning smoothly from eu to non eu member and use the 'see, I told you so' motto for their own campaign.

Perso I want May and Britain out of the EU asap first because that's what Brits wanted and secondly cause I don't want euro populists to use fallacious arguments the same way pro brexit guys did i.e 'easier to tackle immigration issues on our own rather than part of the eu'. The vast majority of illegal immigrants want to go to the uk, if France, Belgium and co play hardball (i.e open the gates) Britain could have a massive immigration problem to face. That's what brexit 'also' means, you're on your own.

People of all political persuasions voted for Brexit. More in fact than have ever voted in support of a single political party or leader. The EU exports more to the UK than we export to them, so any punitive tariffs, or petty restrictions would hurt the EU more than the UK which will be free to trade with the world without the protectionist tariffs imposed by the EU. So again, in order for the EU to remain competitive against the rest of the World, punitive tariffs against the UK would be self defeating. Next we have the 53 million a day we pay into the EU. As the third largest contributor to the EU budget, without the UK the EU faces a serious shortfall in the amount of subsidies and bailouts it can afford to give away in support of basket case economies like Greece. To sum up, if the French feel like threatening the UK with scrapping the Sangatte Protocol we could remind them that their farmers receive huge subsidies which would not be affordable to the EU without the UK payments and last but not least, free trade within the EU is anything but. Our membership fee is 53 million a day. If the EU really wishes to play hard ball on this we simply withdraw and trade on WTO terms which even the EU is bound by. Thus the EU is in a very weak bargaining position, but PM May is cordially allowing EU leaders to posture before they are forced to offer the UK an excellent deal.

"All euro democrats (left and right) are scared brexit will gangrene and poison their own country"

You mean "liberate," or "knock common sense" into their own countries. We are already seeing rising popular opposition to the "open door" immigration policies, for example, in Germany, Sweden, Finland and Austria. Euro skepticism is growing

If the Italian financial system crashes, and if there's another Euro crisis, and then more massive bailouts to prop up the "EU experiment," well, another nail in the coffin for them....but not for Britain.